南涝北旱的年代气候特点和形成条件   总被引：10，自引：3，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

孙林海  陈兴芳 《应用气象学报》2003,14(6):641-647

通过研究最近50年我国夏季降水分布的年代际及年际气候变化特征，以及对20世纪90年代至今夏季旱涝趋势的对比分析，讨论了夏季主要雨带位置南移的气候趋势，以及亚洲大陆高压、ENSO事件对夏季降水的影响关系。结果表明，20世纪90年代后期开始我国夏季旱涝分布气候态发生较大的变化，这可能预示夏季进入南涝北旱的年代气候时期。这些结果对于降水的年代气候预测和短期气候预测都具有重要意义。  相似文献   

流域洪涝定量描述及江西省48a流域洪涝分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

戴熙敏 《气象与减灾研究》2002,25(3):8-13

分别对单站洪涝强度、流域集中期洪涝强度和流域汛期洪涝强度进行了定量描述。并对1951～1998年江西省5大流域的洪涝分别进行了比较分析,得出了各大流域近半世纪10大洪涝集中期、10大洪涝汛期和南北分片10大洪涝年。  相似文献   

准静止波强迫对1998年和1991年江淮洪涝影响的数值模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

宋敏红  钱正安  蔡英 《高原气象》2006,25(3):390-400

为了进一步检验青藏高原、北方冷空气及西太副高对1998年和1991年江南北部和江淮洪涝的影响,利用NCEP/NCAR的再分析格点资料和MM5中尺度模式分别对该两年夏季的两段强暴雨个例作了对照和滤波试验。模拟结果表明:在两次强暴雨个例中,考虑了中高纬度环流、青藏高原热力作用和低纬西太副高影响的对照试验,能相当好地再现中高纬度环流的平均场特征及形势演变的情景;而不包括上述准静止波异常影响的滤波试验的模拟结果与对照试验的结果相差较大,更接近多年平均的7月气候场。这证实北方冷空气活动、高原热力作用和西太副高位置对该两个个例中雨带的重要影响。同时,本文模拟也显示中尺度模式MM5有相当强的模拟中高纬度形势演变的能力,这种保留或滤除准静止波异常的模拟方法不失为一种讨论大尺度准静止波异常对区域气候影响的有效方法。  相似文献   

基于人工神经网络的洪涝预报方法研究     

陈冰廉  王庆国 《气象研究与应用》2006,27(3):1-4

针对西江流域的洪涝灾害,利用流域的水文参量和气象参量作为自变量,探索基于人工神经网络的洪涝预报方法。以西江流域梧州市1971~2003年超过警戒水位(17.0m)共125次作为研究对象,选取流域的水文参量和气象参量作为预报因子,对数量众多预报因子采用自然正交分解(EOF)方法,浓缩大量因子的有效信息,建立了西江流域梧州洪涝的人工神经网络预报模型。结果表明:所建立的预报模型历史拟合平均绝对百分比误差为2.21%,平均绝对误差为0.43m,预报结果平均绝对百分比误差为2.34%,平均绝对误差为0.45m,预报效果较好,可应用于实际的洪涝预报中。  相似文献   

Investigation of the ground displacement in Saint Petersburg,Russia, using multiple-track differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

Global sea level rise and local land subsidence might exacerbate the risk of flooding in coastal plains. Among other cities, this is also the case for the high-latitude city of St. Petersburg, which has long been threatened by flood events. To protect the urban area from storm surges, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1978 approved the construction of the 25 km long Flood Prevention Facility Complex (FPFC), which was completed in 2011. The risk of flooding in the city area of St. Petersburg is amplified by the fact that large sections of the coastal area have been reclaimed from the sea. In this study, we investigate the temporal evolution of the ground displacement in St. Petersburg. To this end, we perform an extended analysis based on the application of a simplified version of the differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar technique, known as the minimum acceleration (MinA) approach. The MinA algorithm is a multi-satellite/multi-track interferometric combination technique that allows working with multiple sets of SAR images. The method allowed generation of time series of two-dimensional (2-D) (i.e. East-West and Up-Down) deformation of the terrain by processing two sequences of Sentinel-1A/B (S-1A/B) SAR images acquired from 2016 to 2018, along the ascending and descending flight passes. The Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) algorithm was independently applied to the two sets of SAR data to generate the relevant Line-Of-Sight (LOS)-projected ground deformation time series. Subsequently, the LOS-projected deformation products were geocoded and jointly combined. The results indicate that the deformation in the city is predominantly vertical (i.e. it is subsiding) with a maximum subsidence rate of about 20 mm/year corresponding to the newly sea-reclaimed lands. Finally, the error budget of the retrieved 2-D deformation time series has also been addressed.  相似文献   

Numerical assessment of factors affecting the survivability of damaged ro-ro ships in waves     

Tiago A. Santos 《Ocean Engineering》2009,36(11):797-809

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淹水对菖蒲萌发及幼苗生长的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

曹昀  王国祥  刘玉 《湖泊科学》2007,19(5):577-584

应用盆栽试验方法,研究了菖蒲在不同淹水深度下的萌发和幼苗生长.试验共设20、40、60、80、100和120 cm等6个处理,处理时间为86 d.结果表明:(1)不同淹水深度对菖蒲萌发和幼苗有不同程度的影响,在持续完全淹水条件下,菖蒲幼苗的萌发率仅为淹水20 cm条件下的1/3,幼苗的平均高度为淹水20 cm条件下的1/3左右;(2)菖蒲幼苗叶片长度、宽度、叶片面积和基茎随淹水深度增加而减小,叶片数量和叶片含水率随淹水深度增加而增大;(3)在试验的27 d、54 d、86 d,各淹水深度植物的根、茎、叶及总生物量都比淹水20 cm有不同程度的降低,并随淹水时间的延长,各淹水深度条件下的生物量差别增大.在不同淹水深度条件下,根、茎和叶生物量增量均表现为茎的最多,叶的次之,根的最少;(4)菖蒲幼苗在水深为100-120 cm的逆境条件下时,叶片细胞膜脂过氧化加剧,细胞质膜透性增加;(5)菖蒲幼苗叶片的叶绿素a、b含量和类胡萝卜素(Car)含量随淹水深度的增加而下降;(6)Fv/Fm、ETR、qP随淹水深度的增加而下降,长时间(54-86 d)完全淹水(水深100-120 cm)对菖蒲幼苗光合系统PSⅡ有显著影响,影响菖蒲幼苗PSⅡ的非循环光合电子传递速率,天线色素吸收的光能用于光化学电子传递的份额减少,参与CO2固定的电子减少;qN在54 d、86 d的都有不同程度的增加,菖蒲叶片PSⅡ系统没有遭到破坏.  相似文献   

Examining the relationship between wetland alteration and watershed flooding in Texas and Florida   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Samuel D. Brody  Wesley E. Highfield  Hyung-Cheal Ryu  Laura Spanel-Weber 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(2):413-428

Inland flooding remains one of the greatest threats to the safety of human population in the United States (US). While few large-scale studies exist, the potential role of naturally occurring wetlands in mitigating flood duration and intensity has been widely discussed. This study examines the relationship between wetland alteration and coastal watershed flooding in Texas and Florida over a 12-year period. Specifically, we geo-reference wetland alteration permits required under Section 404 of the US Clean Water Act and correlate the number of granted permits with the degree of flooding measured by stream gauge data. Results indicate that specific types of federal permits exacerbate flooding events in coastal watersheds while controlling for various environmental and socioeconomic characteristics.  相似文献   

A comparative analysis of three habitat suitability models for commercial yield estimation of Tapes philippinarum in a North Adriatic coastal lagoon (Sacca di Goro, Italy)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Simone Vincenzi  Graziano Caramori  Remigio Rossi  Giulio A. De Leo   《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,55(10-12):579

Habitat Suitability (HS) models have been extensively used by conservation planners to estimate the spatial distribution of threatened species and of species of commercial interest. In this work we compare three HS models for the estimation of commercial yield potential and the identification of suitable sites for Tapes philippinarum rearing in the Sacca di Goro lagoon (Italy) on the basis of six environmental factors. The habitat suitability index (HSI) is based on expert opinion while the habitat suitability conditional (HSC) is calibrated on observational data. The habitat suitability mixed (HSM) model is a two-part model combining expert knowledge and regression analysis: the first component of the model uses logistic regression to identify the areas in which clams are likely to be present; the second part applies the same parameter-specific suitability functions of the HSI model only in the areas previously identified as productive by the logistic component.The HS models were validated on an independent data set and estimates of potential yield of the Goro lagoon were compared. The effectiveness of the three approaches is then discussed in terms of predicted yield and identification of suitable sites for farming.  相似文献   

球面菱形离散格网正二十面体剖分法     

周良辰  盛业华  林冰仙  闾国年  赵志鹏 《测绘学报》2014,43(12):1293-1299

基于菱形单元的球面离散格网具有结构简单和方向性一致等优点,使得其适用于全球多尺度空间数据建模与分析.本文提出一种球面菱形离散格网正二十面体剖分法.首先根据地球的主要地理特征确定正二十面体各个顶点在球面上的位置;其次针对南北两极处的极点奇异性,建立了球面经纬度坐标与三维直角坐标之间的转换关系,在此基础上提出球面菱形离散格网层次递归剖分算法,并从菱形格网单元面积、长短轴比两方面对剖分结果进行几何形变分析;最后验证了本文方法的可行性,试验结果表明,该方法可有效地构建基于正二十面体的球面菱形离散格网,其总体几何特性明显优于基于正八面体构建的球面菱形离散格网.  相似文献