Climate change perceptions and their individual-level determinants: A cross-European analysis     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

There is now an extensive literature on the question of how individual-level factors affect climate change perceptions, showing that socio-political variables, notably values, worldviews and political orientation, are key factors alongside demographic variables. Yet little is known about cross-national differences in these effects, as most studies have been conducted in a single or small number of countries and cross-study comparisons are difficult due to different conceptualisations of key climate change dimensions. Using data from the European Social Survey Round 8 (n = 44,387), we examine how key socio-political and demographic factors are associated with climate change perception across 22 European countries and Israel. We show that human values and political orientation are important predictors of climate change beliefs and concern, as are the demographics of gender, age, and education. Certain associations with climate change perceptions, such as the ones for the self-transcendence versus self-enhancement value dimension, political orientation, and education, are more consistent across countries than for gender and age. However, even if the direction of the associations are to a large extent consistent, the sizes of the effects are not. We demonstrate that the sizes of the effects are generally smaller in Central and Eastern European countries, and that some demographic effects are larger in Northern European as compared to Western European countries. This suggests that findings from one country do not always generalize to other national contexts.  相似文献   

The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire patterns and subsequent impacts to human communities. The relative influence of climate versus land use on fires and their impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given the substantial geographical variability in fire-prone places like California. We developed a modeling framework to compare the importance of climatic and human variables for explaining fire patterns and structure loss for three diverse California landscapes, then projected future large fire and structure loss probability under two different climate (hot-dry or warm-wet) and two different land use (rural or urban residential growth) scenarios. The relative importance of climate and housing pattern varied across regions and according to fire size or whether the model was for large fires or structure loss. The differing strengths of these relationships, in addition to differences in the nature and magnitude of projected climate or land use change, dictated the extent to which large fires or structure loss were projected to change in the future. Despite this variability, housing and human infrastructure were consistently more responsible for explaining fire ignitions and structure loss probability, whereas climate, topography, and fuel variables were more important for explaining large fire patterns. For all study areas, most structure loss occurred in areas with low housing density (from 0.08 to 2.01 units/ha), and expansion of rural residential land use increased structure loss probability in the future. Regardless of future climate scenario, large fire probability was only projected to increase in the northern and interior parts of the state, whereas climate change had no projected impact on fire probability in southern California. Given the variation in fire-climate relationships and land use effects, policy and management decision-making should be customized for specific geographical regions.  相似文献   

Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.  相似文献   

Transforming agricultural land use through marginal gains in the food system     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

There is an increasing need for transformational changes in the global food system to deliver healthy nutritional outcomes for a growing population while simultaneously ensuring environmental sustainability. However, such changes are subject to political and public constraints that usually allow only gradual, incremental changes to occur. Drawing inspiration from the British cycling team’s concept of marginal gains, we show how transformation might be reconciled with incremental changes. We demonstrate that a set of marginal food system changes acting to increase production efficiency, to reduce losses or to adjust diets could collectively reduce the agricultural land required globally for food production by 21%, or over a third given higher adoption rates. The results show that while all categories of action are important, changes in consumer choices in Europe, North America and Oceania and in the supply-chain in Africa and West and Central Asia have the greatest potential to reduce the land footprint of the food system.  相似文献   

Planning for the past: Local temporality and the construction of denial in climate change adaptation     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Climate change is upon us. While debates continue over how to mitigate emissions, it is evident that many parts of the world will need to adapt to an increasingly unstable climate. However, the persistence of climate denial presents a significant barrier to climate change response; if a future in which the climate has dramatically changed cannot be imagined, there is little motivation to act. Using qualitative interview data, our research investigates community responses to climate change adaptation planning in a coastal region of Australia identified as highly vulnerable to future sea level rise. While the local council engaged in extensive consultation to develop an adaptation plan, community opposition to proposed development changes ultimately resulted in a ‘wait and see’ response. We show how the community’s local understandings of place informed temporalities that led to a practice of climate denial. We outline three processes by which climate denial is socially organised: anchoring the past via historical reference; projecting continuity through a nostalgic lens of managing disaster; and enclosing the present by prioritising existing economic value. We show how these processes result in the social organisation of climate denial, and an inability to plan for a climate changed future.  相似文献   

The role of global dietary transitions for safeguarding biodiversity     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Diets lower in meat could reduce agricultural expansion and intensification thereby reducing biodiversity impacts. However, land use requirements, associated with alternate diets, in biodiverse regions across different taxa are not fully understood. We use a spatially explicit global food and land system model to address this gap. We quantify land-use change in locations important for biodiversity across taxa and find diets low in animal products reduce agricultural expansion and intensity in regions with high biodiversity. Reducing ruminant meat consumption alone however was not sufficient to reduce fertiliser and irrigation application in biodiverse locations. The results differed according to taxa, emphasising that land-use change effects on biodiversity will be taxon specific. The links shown between global meat consumption and agricultural expansion and intensification in the biodiverse regions of the world indicates the potential to help safeguard biodiverse natural ecosystems through dietary change.  相似文献   

On matryoshkas and meaning-making: Understanding the plasticity of climate change     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Climate change is a complex issue and means different things to different people. Numerous scholars in history, philosophy, and psychology have explored these multiple meanings, referred to as the plasticity of climate change. Building on psychological research that seeks to explain why meanings differ, I present an analytical framework that draws on adult developmental psychology to explore how meaning is constructed, and how it may become increasingly more complex across a lifespan in a nested manner, much like Russian dolls (or matryoshkas). I then use the framework to analyze photo voice data from a case study about local perspectives on climate change in El Salvador. The main finding from this analysis is that a developmental approach can help to make sense of why there is such plasticity of meanings about climate change. Using photos and their interpretations to illustrate these findings, I examine how perspective-taking capacities arrive at different meanings about climate change, based on the object of awareness, complexity of thought, and scope of time. I then discuss implications of this preliminary work on how developmental psychology could help climate change scholar-practitioners to understand and align with different climate change meanings and support local actors to translate their own meanings about climate change into locally-owned actions.  相似文献   

CINRAD-SA双偏振雷达资料在降水估测中的应用初探   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈超  胡志群  胡胜  张扬  李珊珊 《气象》2019,45(1):113-125

对基于水平反射率ZH和差分传播相移率K_(DP)的降水估测综合法R(C)进行了改进,并对广州S波段双偏振雷达2016年2次飑线和2次台风降水过程的Φ_(DP)使用小波分析进行滤波处理,在此基础上使用变距最小二乘法拟合得到K_(DP)的值。分别使用R(C)和R(Z_H)法对2次飑线和2次台风降水过程进行降水估算,将估算结果和雨量计小时雨量进行了对比,并将两种方法的评估结果进行了对比。结果表明:(1)对于飑线类型降水,R(C)法对5 mm·h~(-1)以上的降水估测精度要好于R(Z_H)法,且降水率越大,R(C)法优势越明显,当降水率≥20 mm·h~(-1)时,两次过程R(C)法比R(Z_H)法的平均相对误差(RE)降低了17. 2%,平均绝对误差(AE)减少了1.89 mm,平均均方根误差(RMSE)减少了1.66 mm;(2)对于台风类型降水,R(C)法对5 mm·h~(-1)以上的降水估测精度也好于R(Z_H)法,当降水率≥20 mm·h~(-1)时,两次过程R(C)法比R(Z_H)法的平均RE降低了33. 19%,平均AE减少了3. 95 mm,平均RMSE减少了4.05 mm;(3)对于飑线和台风两种类型降水R(C)法都明显改善了降水率较大时的R(Z_H)法低估问题,但R(C)法在降水率10 mm·h~(-1)时也存在低估,可能是由雨滴谱资料观测误差导致拟合的系数偏小或雷达硬件造成的观测偏差等造成的。  相似文献   

京津冀地区低层局地大气环流的气候特征研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

曾佩生  朱蓉  范广洲  李泽椿  王月冬 《气象》2019,45(3):381-394

本文采用2007-2016年的中尺度数值模拟结果和15个地面气象站观测资料,定义了局地风场表征风速,研究京津冀平原地区局地大气环流日变化的气候特征,并对区域大气污染及其输送的影响进行分析。此外,对2016年12月30日至2017年1月7日北京地区跨年大气重污染过程进行了个例分析。得到结论:京津冀平原地区低空风场变化是天气系统与局地大气环流共同作用的结果,山谷风环流致使太行山和燕山沿线平原地区大气边界层内的长年主导风向为偏北和偏南;太行山和燕山沿线地区山谷风环流本身呈顺时针旋转的日变化特征,夜间至早晨谷风转向山风,午后至夜间山风转向谷风;在午后谷风向山风转向期间,容易形成沿太行山东麓和燕山南麓、自南向东北的"弓形"气流输送通道,此气流输送通道在1月于21时左右形成,持续时间大约3 h,在7月于18时左右形成,持续时间可达9 h;冬季午后至晚间盛行谷风时,受山体的阻挡,污染物容易在山前累积,导致污染浓度增高;夏季同样的情况会发生在后半夜。  相似文献   

利用TRMM PR和IGRA探测分析的拉萨降水云内大气温湿廓线特征     

王梦晓  王瑞  傅云飞 《高原气象》2019,38(3):539-551

利用热带测雨卫星测雨雷达(TRMM PR)降水回波反射率因子廓线(降水率廓线)与全球探空大气温湿廓线(IGRA)的多年融合资料,研究了青藏高原拉萨站夏季降水结构及相应的大气温湿结构特征。结果表明,该站降水回波反射率因子分布在17~45 dBz,大部分小于26 dBz;回波顶高度达17 km,呈现“瘦高”外形;相应的大气低层湿润,降水云内大气并非饱和,但温度露点差比全部状态时的值小。深厚降水系统的回波外形也呈现“瘦高”,按照降水率随高度的非线性变化,其垂直结构可分为三层,而浅薄降水系统的垂直结构呈现一层,即平均降水率斜率随高度呈对数线性变化,最大平均降水率(0.7 mm·h^-1)出现在地面。深厚降水与浅薄降水云体内400 hPa高度(7.5 km)上下的露点温度递减的速率不同。降水云体内的零度层高度大约6.3 km,但PR没有探测到零度层亮带。统计结果还表明拉萨探空站及附近的大气可降水量为20.89 mm·d^-1,降水转化率为27.0%,深厚降水系统的降水转化率是浅薄降水系统的2.9倍,深厚降水系统和浅薄降水系统的CAPE值分别为1941.7 J·kg^-1和1451.8 J·kg^-1。本研究结果为模式模拟青藏高原降水云内的温湿结构提供了观测依据。  相似文献