Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.
Policy relevance
The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions. 相似文献
Based on landform, climate, river system, geological structure and hydrogeological structure and from the perspective of systematology, the groundwater system of Asia can be divided into 36 secondary groundwater systems under 11 primary ones by the intercontinental scale. This forms part of the work of the groundwater series map of Asia, which is compiled according to groundwater system division and evaluation of the total amount and types of aquifer, reflecting the large-scale features of groundwater resources in Asia. Systematic profiling of groundwater in this way provides a scientific basis for groundwater exploitation planning and management in Asia, and avoiding disputes over groundwater resources and the environment among Asian countries. 相似文献
自从20世纪80年代PDC复合片研发成功以来,PDC钻头由于其钻进性能强和耐磨性能好,在世界许多国家的石油钻井和地质勘探中得到了广泛应用,取得了很好的效果。但是,如何进一步提高其在钻探工程中的技术经济指标是一个很迫切的问题。俄罗斯博士Скоромных В. В.教授等对此进行多年研究,提出了稳态破碎岩石方式的思想,即在轴载和扭矩切力形成的合力R与切削面成垂直角度条件下,切入深度h不变时形成的一种碎岩方式。并在此基础上提出了一些设计PDC钻头方面的建议。 相似文献