RS & GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping of the Balason River basin,Darjeeling Himalaya,using logistic regression (LR) model     

Subrata Mondal  Sujit Mandal 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(1):29-44

The present study deals with the preparation of a landslide susceptibility map of the Balason River basin, Darjeeling Himalaya, using a logistic regression model based on Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing. The landslide inventory map was prepared with a total of 295 landslide locations extracted from various satellite images and intensive field survey. Topographical maps, satellite images, geological, geomorphological, soil, rainfall and seismic data were collected, processed and constructed into a spatial database in a GIS environment. The chosen landslide-conditioning factors were altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, slope curvature, geology, geomorphology, soil, land use/land cover, normalised differential vegetation index, drainage density, lineament number density, distance from lineament, distance to drainage, stream power index, topographic wetted index, rainfall and peak ground acceleration. The produced landslide susceptibility map satisfied the decision rules and ?2 Log likelihood, Cox &; Snell R-Square and Nagelkerke R-Square values proved that all the independent variables were statistically significant. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the prediction accuracy of the landslide probability map was 96.10%. The proposed LR method can be used in other hazard/disaster studies and decision-making.  相似文献   

粤港澳大湾区地下水资源特征及开发潜力          下载免费PDF全文

曹建文  夏日元  唐仲华  赵良杰  王喆  栾崧  王松 《中国地质》2021,48(4):1075-1093

粤港澳大湾区是中国开放程度最高、经济活力最强的区域之一,在国家发展大局中具有重要的战略地位,大湾区未来的发展离不开水资源的支撑和良好的水生态环境。近年来,随着大湾区经济的快速发展,人口激增,需水量上升,水资源环境问题也日益突出,水安全保障程度不足;地下水是水资源的重要组成部分,具有水量稳定、水质较好的特点,可作为重要的应急备用水源。本文从地下水资源着手,系统梳理了大湾区水资源环境条件、地下水资源状况、特征和开发利用潜力,并提出了应急后备水源地建议,得到以下认识:(1)地下水可划分为松散岩类孔隙水、碳酸盐岩岩溶水、基岩裂隙水三大类,其中松散岩类孔隙水和基岩裂隙水分布最广;(2)湾区内地下水水化学类型较为复杂,丘陵山区以HCO_3-Na型、HCO_3-Ca型及HCO_3-Na+Ca型为主,冲积平原及山间盆地以HCO_3+Cl-Na型及HCO_3+Cl-Na+Ca型为主,三角洲地区以Cl-Na型微咸-咸水为主;(3)西江、北江及东江干流构成湾区内地下水排泄的总渠道,各支流为地下水的局部排泄基准面,地下水动态变化具季节性特征;(4)地下水整体水质较好,Ⅰ-Ⅲ类水占比高达66.25%,从丘陵山区到三角洲平原,水质呈变差趋势,尤其在广州、江门、中山、东莞等城市周边水质较差,超标因子主要为氨氮、氯化物、氟化物、硫酸盐等,三角洲地区发育大量"铁质水"和"氨氮水",水质性缺水问题突出;(5)地下水开发利用程度很低,东莞及中山等城市基本未开发利用地下水,在各类地下水中,碳酸盐岩岩溶裂隙水具有规模开采的开发利用潜力;(6)综合分析相关资料,提出将广花盆地等10处富水块段作为应急水源地备选,经初步计算每年可为大湾区提供约4.18亿m~3的应急水源保障。为应对突发性水质污染及极端干旱气候等大规模供水危机,保障粤港澳大湾区用水安全,促进大湾区高质量发展,建议加强大湾区的基础水文地质调查工作,掌握地下水的水位、水质、水量的动态变化特征,精准计算可用于应急备用开采的地下水储存量。  相似文献   

基于梯度提升算法的岩性识别方法     

王恒  姜亚楠  张欣  仲鸿儒  陈庆轩  高世臣 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2021,51(3):940-950

传统的岩性识别方法如岩屑录井、钻井取心及测井资料解释等技术,对录井质量的依赖程度较高,识别精度与效率低,泛化能力差。随着计算机技术的迅速发展,将测井资料与计算机技术相结合开展岩性研究已成为岩性识别的有效手段。本文提出了一种基于梯度提升算法XGBoost和LightGBM的岩性识别方法。以苏里格气田苏东41-33区块下碳酸盐岩储层为例进行测试验证,采用该方法结合测井资料中的声波时差、自然伽马、光电吸收截面指数、密度、深侧向电阻率和补偿中子等6种参数进行岩性识别,并与KNN （K近邻分类器）、朴素贝叶斯和支持向量机等传统算法进行对比,结果表明,3种传统算法的岩性识别准确率分别为78.45%、74.43%和78.72%,基于梯度提升算法XGBoost和LightGBM的识别准确率分别达到了98.90%和98.72%,远高于传统算法。  相似文献   

一种基于机器学习算法的岩性填图方法     

冀全伟  王文磊  刘治博  祝茂强  袁长江 《地质力学学报》2021,27(3):339-349

通过野外地质调查与机器学习方法的有机融合,提出了一种基于梯度提升决策树算法的岩性单元填图方法。研究以多龙矿集区为模型试验区,选择1∶5万勘查地球化学数据为基础预测数据,以1∶5万区域地质图为参考,进行基于梯度提升决策树算法的岩性预测填图模型试验。首先选择研究区内小范围空白区开展野外填图,建立原始数据集并初步构建岩性单元与预测数据对应关系;其次利用机器学习方法对预测数据进行多分类任务,进而开展目标填图区预测填图工作;最后通过概率选区选定概率较低目标区,开展进一步的小范围野外地质调查填图,对原始数据和知识库进行补充,迭代循环以上流程,直至预测填图达到要求。试验显示,随着迭代次数的增加,模型精度不断提高,并在7次迭代后模型准确率达到87%。该方法强调在实际应用中野外地质调查与基于机器学习预测填图的深度融合,以及野外实地工作在整个流程中的重要性和不可或缺性;同时能够充分挖掘已有数据资料的有用信息,用于辅助修正已有岩性填图内容,或根据已勘探区资料对邻近的未勘探区进行岩性分类,有效减少野外填图工作量,是对岩性填图方法、地质单元定量预测识别的有益探索,为区域地质填图工作提供了新的参考思路和辅助手段。   相似文献   

Landslide susceptibility zonation method based on C5.0 decision tree and K-means cluster algorithms to improve the efficiency of risk management   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zizheng Guo  Yu Shi  Faming Huang  Xuanmei Fan  Jinsong Huang 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(6):243-261

Machine learning algorithms are an important measure with which to perform landslide susceptibility assessments,but most studies use GIS-based classification methods to conduct susceptibility zonation.This study presents a machine learning approach based on the C5.0 decision tree(DT)model and the K-means cluster algorithm to produce a regional landslide susceptibility map.Yanchang County,a typical landslide-prone area located in northwestern China,was taken as the area of interest to introduce the proposed application procedure.A landslide inventory containing 82 landslides was prepared and subse-quently randomly partitioned into two subsets:training data(70％landslide pixels)and validation data(30％landslide pixels).Fourteen landslide influencing factors were considered in the input dataset and were used to calculate the landslide occurrence probability based on the C5.0 decision tree model.Susceptibility zonation was implemented according to the cut-off values calculated by the K-means clus-ter algorithm.The validation results of the model performance analysis showed that the AUC(area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve)of the proposed model was the highest,reaching 0.88,compared with traditional models(support vector machine(SVM)=0.85,Bayesian network(BN)=0.81,frequency ratio(FR)=0.75,weight of evidence(WOE)=0.76).The landslide frequency ratio and fre-quency density of the high susceptibility zones were 6.76/km2 and 0.88/km2,respectively,which were much higher than those of the low susceptibility zones.The top 20％interval of landslide occurrence probability contained 89％of the historical landslides but only accounted for 10.3％of the total area.Our results indicate that the distribution of high susceptibility zones was more focused without contain-ing more"stable"pixels.Therefore,the obtained susceptibility map is suitable for application to landslide risk management practices.  相似文献   

一种基于微服务架构的突发事件预警辅助决策系统的设计与实现     

陈石定  刘翔  汪应琼 《南京气象学院学报》2019,11(5):609-620

单体式架构应用在突发事件预警辅助决策系统开发中不能满足现实需求,本文引入了微服务架构设计开发该辅助决策系统.通过分析微服务架构在复杂系统中相对于传统单体式架构的应用优势,设计出一种基于微服务架构的突发事件预警信息发布辅助决策系统,该系统选用Spring Cloud微服务框架,并对其进行适当的扩展,创建了基于该系统设计的注册中心与网关.系统采用二三维一体化地理信息系统作为展示平台,通过接入各行业静态、危险源动态监测数据,根据设定的模型进行数据融合、处理,辅助进行预警信息生成、发布及应急处置阶段的指挥决策.所设计方案在湖北省突发事件预警发布辅助决策系统中得以实际应用,验证了该类系统使用微服务架构的合理性和有效性.  相似文献   

我国中东部平原地区临界气温条件下降水相态判别分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈双  谌芸  何立富  郭云谦 《气象》2019,45(8):1037-1051

基于2001—2013年地面观测和探空资料,对地面气温位于0～2℃(以下称临界气温)我国降雪的时空分布及其与降雨的垂直热力特征进行了研究,引入了决策树判别方法对上述条件下雪和雨进行了判别分析,结果表明:临界气温下降雪出现频率总体高于降雨、雨夹雪出现频率,且在我国华北南部至江南北部的中东部地区分布较多,年均可达7.69～15.38站次;临界气温下,降水相态为雨或雪对应的平均温度廓线最大差异位于650 hPa附近,且地面气温较低时,平均温度差异更明显,平均湿度廓线差异则主要位于低层,且在地面气温较高时,平均湿度差异更明显;临界气温下,降水相态为雨时,地面上空存在暖层样本占比,较降水相态为雪时更高,且降雨时暖层主要位于中层,降雪时暖层则主要位于低层,降雨时其暖层强度显著大于降雪时暖层强度;在临界气温下雨雪判别分析中,地面气温能显著提升判别准确率,湿球温度能在一定程度上提升判别准确率,基于云顶温度、中层融化参数、低层湿球温度构建的决策树判别模型,判别准确率达到91.86%,能较好地解决临界气温下雨和雪的判别问题。  相似文献   

气象因子对半冬性小麦灌浆速度的影响效应研究     

信志红  郭建平  谭凯炎  张利华  孙义  杨荣光 《气象》2019,45(12):1736-1746

选用黄淮海冬麦区4个半冬性小麦品种郯麦98、山农18、徐麦33、皖麦52为试验材料,通过分期播种试验,利用方差分析、相关分析、逐步回归和通径分析等方法,分析半冬性小麦籽粒灌浆速度变化趋势和气象因子对灌浆速度的影响。结果表明,正常播期冬小麦灌浆速度波动性最小、千粒重最大,迟播10 d冬小麦灌浆速度波动性最大、千粒重最小;华北区品种郯麦98灌浆速度表现最稳定、千粒重最高,而黄淮区品种皖麦52灌浆速度最大;半冬性小麦灌浆持续期为35～39 d;南北气候差异是影响各品种冬小麦灌浆速度不同的原因之一。半冬性小麦各播期灌浆速度的变化趋势一致,灌浆速度变化与相关显著气象因子的变化规律相符合;灌浆速度峰值期一般出现在开花后15～25 d,迟播冬小麦最大灌浆速度出现时间较对照处理提前,不利于提高粒重;气温条件对冬小麦灌浆速度影响显著,其中最高气温要素是影响不同播期品种灌浆速度的共有关键因子。通径分析表明,最高气温对灌浆速度的作用由自身的直接效应决定,而日照时数与最低气温对灌浆速度的作用与间接效应一致;最高气温平均值对灌浆速度的影响最重要,日照时数和最低气温平均值对灌浆速度的影响较弱;最高和最低气温平均值、日照时数均为灌浆速度的限制因子,其中最高气温平均值对灌浆速度变化的决策作用最大。  相似文献   

Explicit integration of a porosity‐dependent hydro‐mechanical model for unsaturated soils          下载免费PDF全文

Yue Zhang  Annan Zhou 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(17):2353-2382

An adaptive substepping explicit integration scheme is developed for a porosity‐dependent hydro‐mechanical model for unsaturated soils. The model is referred to as the modified σ –Θ model in this paper, which features the employment of the subloading surface plasticity and the stress–saturation approach. On numerical aspects, convex/nonconvex subloading surfaces in the σ –Θ space may result in incorrect loading–unloading decisions during the integration. A new loading–unloading decision method is developed here to solve the problem and then embedded into the explicit integration scheme for the modified σ –Θ model. In addition, to enhance the accuracy of the explicit integration, local errors from both hydraulic and mechanical components are included in the error control for each substep. A drift correction method is also developed to ensure the state point lies on the subloading surface in the σ –Θ space within a set error level. The performance of the loading–unloading decision method for the modified σ –Θ model is discussed through comparing it with the conventional loading–unloading decision method. The importance of involving the hydraulic component in the error control is also demonstrated. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed adaptive substepping explicit integration scheme for the modified p–Θ model are also studied via several numerical examples. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

专题制图决策支持系统的设计     

郭庆胜 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1993,(Z1)

专题制图中有很多决策问题,如何建立一个专题制图决策支持系统是本文要讨论的问题。本文对下面的问题进行了讨论和介绍;专题制图决策支持系统的总体设计、子系统间的信息交换、地图表达手段、数据处理方法等。  相似文献