The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model     

Helen Crowley  Julian J. Bommer  Rui Pinho  Juliet Bird 《地震工程与结构动力学》2005,34(14):1653-1685

Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Numerical Modeling of Basin-Range Tectonics Related to Continent-Continent Collision   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

CUI Junwen  SHI Jinsong  LI Pengwu  ZHANG Xiaowei  GUO Xianpu  DING Xiaozhong Institute of Geology  Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences  Beijing  Hehai University  Nanjing  Jiangsu 《《地质学报》英文版》2005,79(1):24-35

Continent-continent collision is the most important driving mechanism for the occurrence of various geological processes in the continental lithosphere. How to recognize and determine continent-continent collision,especially its four-dimensional temporal-spatial evolution, is a subject that geological communities have long been concerned about and studied. Continent-continent collision is mainly manifested by strong underthrnsting (subduction) of the underlying block along an intracontinental subduction zone and continuous obduction (thrusting propagation) of the overlying block along the intracontinental subduction zone, the occurrence of a basin-range tectonic framework in a direction perpendicular to the subduction zone and the flexure and disruption of the Moho. On the basis of numerical modeling, the authors discuss in detail the couplings between various amounts and rates of displacement caused by basin subsidence, mountain uplift and Moho updoming and downflexure during obduction (thrusting propagation) and subduction and the migration pattern of basin centers. They are probably indications or criteria for judgment or determination of continent-continent collision.  相似文献   

Modelling load–displacement response of driven piles in cohesionless soils under tensile loading     

Ahmed Shlash Alawneh   《Computers and Geotechnics》2005,32(8):578-586

A new methodology for deriving the uplift load–displacement response of long driven piles in cohesionless soils is proposed. This method accounts for the effects of the friction fatigue processes during pile driving and the existence of locked-in residual stresses at the end of pile driving before commencing the pile load test. A hyperbolic formulation is utilized to simulate the nonlinear load transfer curves (the so-called t–z curves). The utility of this technique is demonstrated for a field pullout load test on a driven pile in sand. Predicted and measured load–displacement curves showed good agreement, indicating that this approach yields reasonable results as long as representative input parameters are employed.  相似文献   

深圳市某建筑深基坑支护滑塌事故剖析     

黄圭峰 《地质科技情报》2005,24(Z1):65-68

以深圳某建筑深基坑滑塌为例,在现场实物和相关资料调查的基础上,从基坑支护的设计、施工、监测以及质量安全管理等方面对基坑滑塌事故的原因进行了较为全面的分析和探讨,认为导致该基坑支护工程滑塌的主要原因是土钉和锚索抗拔力不足.最后针对目前深基坑工程中普遍存在的问题提出了加强设计方案的审查、加强施工管理、加强土钉墙研究的建议.  相似文献   

指数平滑技术在斜坡位移预测中的应用     

王洪兴  王冠  罗文强 《地质科技情报》2005,24(Z1):196-198

应用趋势型数据指数平滑模型预测了链子崖危岩体监测点GA的位移量.根据其观测数据呈线性趋势的特点,选取趋势型二次指数平滑的线性预测公式和合适的平滑常数值进行了计算预测.预测结果表明位移预测值与实际观测值之间的误差很小,说明该模型可很好地应用于斜坡变形位移的预测.  相似文献   

滑坡变形立体监测网建设   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李长明 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2005,16(B12):19-22

论文简要介绍了滑坡监测工作内容和监测方法，对现有技术方法在实际工作中的优缺点进行了简要评述。认为在滑坡稳定性监测工作中应该建立全方位、多种手段的立体监测网，仅仅运用某一种或者某一单方面的监测方法是不行的，是片面的，无法准确了解滑坡的动态。所说的立体监测网既有水平位移监测又有垂直位移监测，既有滑坡地表表层变形监测又有滑体深部变形监测，既有专业监测又有群测群防体系。同时监测有可能准确地掌握使滑坡失稳的各种因素（自然因素和人为因素）。因此建议在滑坡监测中建立全方位、多种手段的立体监测网，并提出了立体监测网建设的主要内容。  相似文献   

Quantitative assessment on the influence of heavy rainfall on the crystalline schist landslide by monitoring system -case study on Zentoku landslide, Japan   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

Yong Hong  Hiromasa Hiura  Kazuo Shino  Kyoji Sassa  Hiroshi Fukuoka 《Landslides》2005,2(1):31-41

On Shikoku Island, which is one of the four main islands of Japan, a large number of large-scale crystalline schist landslides have been revealed and are being monitored by an observation system. Seasonal heavy rainfall is the most active meteorological factor that can threaten the stability of this kind of site-specific landslide. In this paper, on the basis of the study of the rainfall-related behavior of a typical crystalline schist landslide, the Zentoku landslide, by analyzing the precisely and continuously observed piezometric and movement data, a method was developed to quantitatively assess the effect of heavy rainfall on a large-scale landslide. The results indicated that heavy rainfall-induced landslide displacement shows good correlation with the variation of groundwater levels. Variations of groundwater level have been simulated with the use of a tank model. The simulation using this model permits the change in water levels for future rainfall events to be predicted. By combining the predicted results with the empirical relation between displacements and water levels, rainfall-induced landslide movement during extreme rainfall events can be estimated in advance. The effect of heavy rainfall on sliding behavior can be quantified in terms of the change in displacement. Thus warning information or advisories for the local residents can be provided.  相似文献   

Simplified multi-block constitutive model predicting earthquake-induced landslide triggering and displacement along slip surfaces of saturated sand     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2014

Slopes consisting of saturated sand have recently moved down-slope tens or hundreds of meters under the action of earthquakes. This paper presents a simplified but accurate method predicting the triggering and displacement of such landslides. For this purpose, a simplified constitutive model simulating soil response of saturated sands along slip surfaces is proposed and validated. Then, this constitutive model is coupled with the multi-block sliding system model to predict the triggering and displacement of such slides. The multi-block model considers a general mass sliding on a trajectory which consists of n linear segments. The steps needed to apply this method are described in detail. The method was applied successfully to predict the triggering, the motion and the final configuration of the well-documented (a) Higashi Takezawa, (b) Donghekou and (c) Nikawa earthquake-induced slides.  相似文献   

Critical Top Tension for Static Equilibrium Configuration of A Steel Catenary Riser     

Chainarong ATHISAKUL  Karun KLAYCHAM  Somchai CHUCHEEPSAKUL 《中国海洋工程》2014,(6):829-842

This paper aims to present the critical top tension for static equilibrium configurations of a steel catenary riser（SCR） by using the finite element method. The critical top tension is the minimum top tension that can maintain the equilibrium of the SCR. If the top tension is smaller than the critical value, the equilibrium of the SCR does not exist. If the top tension is larger than the critical value, there are two possible equilibrium configurations. These two configurations exhibit the nonlinear large displacement. The configuration with the smaller displacement is stable, while the one with larger displacement is unstable. The numerical results show that the increases in the riser＇s vertical distances, horizontal offsets, riser＇s weights, internal flow velocities, and current velocities increase the critical top tensions of the SCR. In addition, the parametric studies are also performed in order to investigate the limit states for the analysis and design of the SCR.  相似文献   

Analysis of rectangular piles subjected to lateral loads in nonhomogeneous soil using a Winkler model approach          下载免费PDF全文

Hiroyoshi Hirai 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2015,39(9):937-968

An analytical approach using a Winkler model based on two lateral soil displacement components in a three‐dimensional soil is investigated to provide analytical solutions of horizontal response of a rectangular pile subjected to lateral loads in nonhomogeneous soil. The two lateral displacement components of a soil surrounding the rectangular pile are represented by the Fourier series of displacement potential functions in the elastic three‐dimensional analysis. The lateral stiffness coefficient of the rectangular pile shaft in nonhomogeneous soil is derived from the rocking stiffness coefficient taking into account rocking rotation of a rigid pile shaft. The relationship between horizontal displacement, rotation, moment, and shear force for the rectangular pile subjected to horizontal loads in nonhomogeneous soil is obtainable in the form of the recurrence equation. The formulation of lateral displacement and rotation for a rectangular pile subjected to lateral loads on the pile base in nonhomogeneous soil is proposed by taking into account Mindlin's equation and the equivalent thickness for soil layers in the equivalent elastic method. The difference of lateral behavior between square and circular piles subjected to lateral loads is insignificant. The effect of aspect ratio of the rectangular pile on the lateral behavior is great for the lower stiffness ratio between pile and soil and the larger length–equivalent diameter ratio. The effect of the value of Poisson's ratio of soil on lateral stiffness coefficient is relatively small except Poisson's ratio close to 0.5. The comparison of the results calculated by the current method for a rectangular pile subjected to lateral loads in nonhomogeneous soil has shown good agreement with those obtained from the analytical methods and the finite element method. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献