基于熵权-正态云模型的泥石流灾害易发性评价     

薛喜成  朱清华 《地下水》2019,(3):97-99,150

近年来,由于极端天气事件频发和工程建设活动加剧,泥石流灾害对人类的威胁愈加严峻。因此,在综合分析泥石流灾害发育特征及形成机理的基础上,进行泥石流灾害易发性评价对防灾减灾工程活动具有指导意义。选取沟谷岸坡坡度、沟床纵坡比降、植被覆盖率、单位面积固体物源储量、汇水面积、雨季降雨量建立评价指标体系,采用熵权法确定评价指标权重,将泥石流灾害易发性分为高易发、中易发、低易发和不易发四级,建立基于正态云模型的泥石流灾害易发性评价方法,并以西秦岭地区5条泥石流沟为例验证了该评价模型的合理性。进一步将该模型用于陕西吴堡井沟泥石流灾害易发性评价,结果表明井沟泥石流具有中易发性,评价结果与实际相符。  相似文献   

河流相储层构型研究新理论、新方法——海上油田河流相复合砂体构型概念、内容及表征方法          下载免费PDF全文

胡光义  肖大坤  范廷恩  宋来明  陈飞  井涌泉  高玉飞 《古地理学报》2019,21(1):143-159

基于陆上油田密井网的河流相储层构型研究,经过数十年积累,理论基础及表征方法已比较成熟,然而,将其应用于海上油田稀疏井网条件时,依然面临较大的挑战。笔者团队经过多年探索,基于海上油田开发地质研究方法,形成了井震结合、以"复合砂体"为核心的海上河流相复合砂体构型理论与表征方法,其特点在于运用三维原型建模、地震构型相预测及地震驱动确定性建模等技术,重点表征影响海上油田开发的五、六、七级构型单元(复合河道带、单一河道带、复合点坝),针对开发阶段的小层细分对比及不连续渗流屏障刻画等方面具有明显的优势。目前,应用这套理论及方法开展精细地质建模和数值模拟依然存在挑战,需要进一步发挥地震资料作用并探索人工智能的地震解释新途径。  相似文献   

Regional gravity survey and application in oil and gas exploration in China     

《China Geology》2019,2(3):382-390

Ground gravity survey for regional structure unit delineation and oil and gas exploration in China is addressed in this paper with examples. Gravity survey scales, coverage, technical regulations and achievements at the national level are introduced, including data processing and anomaly interpretation techniques. Bouguer anomalies of terrestrial territories of China and classification of anomalous feature zones are also described; they are well correlated with lithotectonical boundaries, fault zones, and unexposed igneous plutons. Recent study results of petroliferous sedimentary basins are presented as well, including concealed boundaries and major structures of large basins. It is concluded that gravity survey is the most effective and economic method in unveiling unexposed and deep-seated structures, targeting and delineating oil and gas-bearing sedimentary basins, and locating main trap structures within prolific basins in early stage of exploration in China. Suggestions for improving exploration of both conventional and unconventional oil and gas reservoirs in China are also given in the paper.  相似文献   

不同尺度云团系统上下游的传播与1998年长江流域大暴雨   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

仪清菊  徐祥德 《气候与环境研究》2001,6(2):139-145

利用加密的卫星和雷达资料,对云团系统的传播和发展与1998年长江大暴雨的关联进行了探讨.结果表明,热量和水汽的输送通道的重建以及青藏高原低涡向长江流域的传播是1998年7月长江流域大暴雨发生的重要背景条件,它们向下游输送和传播的形式有3种类型,即纬向型、西南型和混合型;而下游地区多个中尺度对流系统的连续生成及其不同形式的组合、发展则是过程降水异常的关键因素.  相似文献   

对流云街激发的重力波和波动阻力   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

桑建国  王保民  孙向明 《气候与环境研究》2002,7(1):114-120

大气边界层中的对流活动,可以在其上部稳定层中激发出重力波,并引起垂直动量输送,影响到对流层和平流层中的动量平衡过程.从二层模式中大气波动方程的线性解出发,得出了对流云街激发的重力波波阻解析表达式,并讨论了大气条件对波阻的影响.这些分析可有助于大气环流模式(GCM)中此类重力波波阻参数化表达式的建立和改进.  相似文献   

大西洋上四个爆发性气旋的云微物理参量垂直分布特征分析          下载免费PDF全文

彭永茂  傅刚  鄢珅  陈莅佳 《海洋气象学报》2021,41(3):24-39

利用CloudSat卫星数据处理中心(CloudSat Data Processing Center,CloudSat DPC)提供的CloudSat卫星数据、欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)提供的ERA5再分析资料和美国国家航空航天局(National Aeronautics and Space Administration,NASA)提供的Aqua卫星可见光云图,对冬春季发生在大西洋上四个爆发性气旋个例的云微物理参量垂直分布特征进行了分析。结果表明:爆发性气旋中心云系多为层积云或积云,中心外围云系以雨层云为主,雨层云外部往往伴随着相似高度的高层云,气旋冷锋云带内以雨层云、高层云和高积云为主,冰粒子出现的最低高度与0℃等温线高度几乎重合;冰粒子有效半径随高度的增加而减小,而冰粒子数浓度随高度增加而增大;冰水含量大值区主要位于雨层云中部;液态水主要分布在高层云和层积云底部,冬季爆发性气旋个例内的液态水含量大于春季。  相似文献   

Integration schemes with substepping algorithms for creep analysis in geomaterials     

Roberto Quevedo  Pedro Firme  Deane Roehl 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(7):1467-1487

This paper describes a robust and efficient methodology for predicting displacements, deformations, and stresses in geomaterials that are susceptible to creep. The methodology is based on two integration schemes, which consider substepping algorithms. The first scheme is used for integrating space-time relations in a global sense, whereas the second scheme is used for integrating stress-stain relations in a local sense. Different from previous studies, both integration schemes are easy to implement and general in the sense that they can be applied to any type of creep law. Through an in-house finite element simulator, several numerical tests are performed. They include triaxial and wellbore closure analyses considering soft soils and salt rocks. The results show that the combination of both schemes leads to stable and accurate solutions with reduced computational time.  相似文献   

Towards Regional Synergy: Reconciling Rangeland Ecological Functioning with Forage Production of Cultivated Pasture     

SHI Peili  ZHANG Xianzhou 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2020,11(3):247-252

Animal husbandry and crop farming are specialized for development in separate areas on the Tibetan Plateau. Such a pattern of isolation has led to current concerns of rangeland and farming system degradation due to intensive land use. The crop-livestock integration, however, has been proven to increase food and feed productivity thorough niche complementarity, and is thereby especially effective for promoting ecosystem resilience. Regional synergy has emerged as an integrated approach to reconcile rangeland livestock with forage crop production. It moves beyond the specialized sectors of animal husbandry and intensive agriculture to coordinate them through regional coupling. Therefore, crop-livestock integration (CLI) has been suggested as one of the effective solutions to forage deficit and livestock production in grazing systems. But it is imperative that CLI moves forward from the farm level to the regional scale, in order to secure regional synergism during agro-pastoral development. The national key R & D program, Technology and Demonstration of Recovery and Restoration of Degraded Alpine Ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau, aims to solve the problems of alpine grassland degradation by building up a grass-based animal husbandry technology system that includes synergizing forage production and ecological functioning, reconciling the relationship between ecology, forage production and animal husbandry, and achieving the win-win goals of curbing grassland degradation and changing the development mode of animal husbandry. It is imperative to call for regional synergy through integrating ecological functioning with ecosystem services, given the alarming threat of rangeland degradation on the Tibetan Plateau. The series of papers in this issue, together with those published previously, provide a collection of rangeland ecology and management studies in an effort to ensure the sustainable use and management of the alpine ecosystems.  相似文献   

Spatial controls on the distribution and dynamics of a marginal snowpack in the Australian Alps     

Shane P. Bilish  J. Nikolaus Callow  Gavan S. McGrath  Hamish A. McGowan 《水文研究》2019,33(12):1739-1755

Seasonal snowpacks in marginal snow environments are typically warm and nearly isothermal, exhibiting high inter‐ and intra‐annual variability. Measurements of snow depth and snow water equivalent were made across a small subalpine catchment in the Australian Alps over two snow seasons in order to investigate the extent and implications of snowpack spatial variability in this marginal setting. The distribution and dynamics of the snowpack were found to be influenced by upwind terrain, vegetation, solar radiation, and slope. The role of upwind vegetation was quantified using a novel parameter based on gridded vegetation height. The elevation range of the catchment was relatively modest (185 m), and elevation impacted distribution but not dynamics. Two characteristic features of marginal snowpack behaviour are presented. Firstly, the evolution of the snowpack is described in terms of a relatively unstable accumulation state and a highly stable ablation state, as revealed by temporal variations in the mean and standard deviation of snow water equivalent. Secondly, the validity of partitioning the snow season into distinct accumulation and ablation phases is shown to be compromised in such a setting. Snow at the most marginal locations may undergo complete melt several times during a season and, even where snow cover is more persistent, ablation processes begin to have an effect on the distribution of the snowpack early in the season. Our results are consistent with previous research showing that individual point measurements are unable to fully represent the variability in the snowpack across a catchment, and we show that recognising and addressing this variability are particularly important for studies in marginal snow environments.  相似文献   

基于Sentinel-1和Sentinel-2协同反演干旱区地表土壤水分--以格尔木河中下游为例          下载免费PDF全文

王二龙  王建萍 《盐湖研究》2021,29(1)

摘要：土壤水分是全球水循环的重要组成成分,对研究土壤水分的空间分布、农作物长势和产量 、气候变化、水资源时空分布等有着重要意义 。本文利用Sentinel（哨兵）系列主动微波雷达卫星SAR（Sentinel-1）结合光学卫星（Sentinel-2）对格尔木中下游低矮植被覆盖下的地表土壤水分进行反演研究, 探讨不同极化组合方式和水云模型前后的土壤水分含量反演方法的适用性。结果表明：其中VV (VV Polarization) 极化对比VH (VH Polarization) 极化更加适用该区域,VV极化结合归一化水指数 (NDWI）反演地表土壤水分精度达到42.6%,拟合精度最高,VH极化仅为22.6%;利用水云模型去除植被覆盖后对地表土壤水分的反演精度有所提升,其中,VV极化精度提高约3.5%,VH极化提高1.5%;Sentinel系列卫星影像对于干旱区的土壤水分的反演具有较好的适用性。本文旨在探索一种适用于该研究区乃至柴达木盆地土壤水分实现大面积实时监测的可靠依据和手段。  相似文献