Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change     

Peter J. Cowell  Thomas Q. Zeng 《Marine Geodesy》2003,26(1):5-18

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.  相似文献   

气象卫星用于近海污染监测及赤潮预报方法探索     

杨超武  田庆久  张满郎  王晋年 《海洋科学进展》1997,(4)

近年来，由于工农业和沿海养殖业的发展，我国近海污染逐年加重，赤潮发生频次增加。因此，监测近海污染和赤潮发生预报方法研究势在必行。本文用ＮＯＡＡ／ＡＶＨＲＲ数据，分析近海水域污染状况，并探索赤潮发生的预报方法。  相似文献   

黄、渤海海岸风沙地貌类型及其分布规律和发育模式   总被引：24，自引：0，他引：24  

傅命佐  徐孝诗  徐小薇 《海洋与湖沼》1997,28(1):56-65

于１９９０－１９９４年，对黄，渤海海岸风沙地貌，风沙沉积，风沙灾害和土地沙漠化现象进行详细的外业调查，测量和填图，在此基础上，利用ＧＩＳ技术原理，对海岸岗沙地貌进行系统的分类研究，对海岸风沙地貌分布规律和发育模式进行较深入的探讨，结果表明，研究区风沙地貌，风沙灾害和土地沙漠化现象主要分布在冬，春季气候干旱，风力强而持久，砂源丰富的渤海海岸和山东半岛半岸的砂质海岸地区，海岸沙丘和风成砂地总面积达７０  相似文献   

周期浅析     

战淑芸  杨淑瑞 《海洋预报》1992,9(4):47-51

本文分析了滑动平均的数据处理方法对周期分析结果产生的影响。提出了过程变量同号积分的数据处理方法,并对亚洲西风指数序列进行了试验分析。分析结果表明,周期的长短与振幅的大小有密切关系,亚洲逐日西风指数的周期振荡具有明显的季节特征。  相似文献   

Coastal Upwelling Activity on the Pacific Shelf of the Baja California Peninsula     

Oleg Zaytsev  Rafael Cervantes-Duarte  Orzo Montante  Artemio Gallegos-Garcia 《Journal of Oceanography》2003,59(4):489-502

High primary productivity on the Pacific coast of the Baja California Peninsula is usually related to coastal upwelling activity that injects nutrients into the euphotic zone in response to prevailing longshore winds (from the northwest to north). The upwelling process has maximum intensity from April to June, with the coastal upwelling index varying from 50 to 300 m³/s per 100 m of coastline. Along the entire coast of the peninsula, the upwelling intensity changes in accordance with local wind conditions and bottom topography. Spatial variability can also be modulated by the influence of mesoscale meanders of the California Current. We have identified the seasonal and synoptic variability of upwelling signatures on the Baja California shelf, using averaged monthly and weekly sea surface temperature (SST) distributions obtained from remote sensing imagery from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer in the period from 1996 to 2001. Analysis of SST distribution and direct experimental data on temperature and nutrient concentration shows that the areas with the coldest SST anomalies were closely related to the bottom slope, shelf width, and coastline orientation relating to wind direction. We also assume that the nutrient transport into the coastal lagoons may be forced by the coupling of coastal upwelling and tidal pumping of surface waters into the lagoon system. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

对应分析在法国Douarnenez海湾拟庸鲽食性研究中的应用(Ⅱ)     

林学群  ChristianDENIEL  AlainLAUREC  FranoiseLEMENN 《海洋科学》1994,18(1):29-32

２．４拟庸蝶食性的对应分析２．４．１观察量和变量的分组观察量（捕食鱼类）依不同季节（冬、夏季）、不同性别（雌雄性）和不同性成熟状态（幼鱼和成鱼）来分组，因此得到８（２３）个观察量。对应分析的变量（饵料）首先根据个体生态的不同分为６个类型：游走多毛类，隐居多毛类，双壳类，不大游动的甲壳类（端足目和等足目），爬行甲壳类（十足国短尾部）和棘皮动物。其他６个类型的饵料生物（类、纽虫类、小型游泳甲壳类、腔肠动物、鱼类及苔藓虫类顺在分组时剔除，其原因为它们的出现可能少了些。考虑到捕食鱼类和饵料双壳类贝壳厚度…  相似文献   

Semi-Probabilistic Evaluation of System Redundancy for Existing Offshore Structures     

Zhang Shengkun Chen Kaisheng Mu Yang Professor 《中国海洋工程》1995,(1)

In this paper, a new definition of structure system redundancy is proposed in view of the various measures for structure redundancy. By introducing the terms of structure system failure at the mechanism level and equivalent reliability index, the safety for existing offshore platforms can be evaluated by the semi-probabilistic method presented in this paper. Some numerical examples are given and satisfactory results have been obtained.  相似文献   

海洋生态环境监测的指标体系研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

单宇  李正炎 《海洋湖沼通报》2007,200(2):52-56

本文在总结国内外各种海洋生态监测方法的基础上,构建生物分布指数、生物暴露指数和生物反应指数,并由此确定生态质量总指教。生态质量总指数可以综合反映特定海洋环境的生物群落特征,典型污染物在生物体内的蓄积特征以及生物体对环境污染的生理生化反应特征,因此可以应用于近岸海洋环境质量的生态监测。  相似文献   

Investigating the use of proxies for fecundity to improve management advice for western horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus     

De Oliveira  J.A.A.; Roel  B.A.; Dickey-Collas  M. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2006,63(1):25-35

  相似文献   

Estimation of Axial Pile Bearing Capacity According to Shear Strength Parameters of Soil     

Yu Xiaodong  Yan Shuwang Sun Wanhe Postgraduate Student  Tianjin University  Tianjin Professor  Tianjin University  Tianjin Senior Engineer  Tianjin Port Engineering Institute  Tianjin 《中国海洋工程》1997,(2)

At pesent,it is very popular to estimate pile bearing capacity by use of empirical formula andphysical indexes of soil provided in the design codes for civil construction in China.This paper attempts toapply mechanical indexes of soil and semi-empirical formulas,which are based on soil mechanical theoriesand were summarized and presented by Meyerhof in 1976,to calculate the axial pile bearing capacity.Lo-ading test results of 24 single piles in Tianjin area have been collected and compared with the proposed cal-ulation approach.  相似文献