全球模式NCAR CESM和CAS ESM对亚洲东部夏季气候的模拟性能评估:气候平均态和降水日变化分析     

李星雨  毕训强  张贺 《气候与环境研究》2018,23(6):645-656

主要评估了美国国家大气研究中心的NCAR CESM（Community Earth System Model,NCAR）和中国科学院的CAS ESM（Earth System Model,Chinese Academy of Sciences）两个地球系统模式对亚洲东部夏季气候态的模拟性能。使用NCAR CESM和CAS ESM各两种不同的水平分辨率,一共进行了4组长达19年（1998~2016年）的数值积分试验,并通过对2 m气温、降水强度和降水日变化等的分析,比较了这两个模式在亚洲东部的模拟性能。结果表明,CAS ESM和NCAR CESM均能模拟出夏季2 m气温和降水强度的大尺度分布特征,但整体上模拟得到的地表面气温偏暖、降水强度偏弱。对于降水日变化而言,观测的日降水峰值在陆地上主要发生在下午到傍晚时段,在海洋上则出现在午夜到凌晨时段。两组低分辨率试验模拟的陆地降水峰值出现过早,且无法模拟出四川盆地的夜间降水峰值和部分海洋地区凌晨或上午的降水峰值。提高分辨率对模式的模拟性能有显著的提升作用。高分辨率下,NCAR CESM和CAS ESM对陆地和海洋的降水日变化模拟性能都明显提高。对降水日变化的定量化分析表明,高分辨率CAS ESM模式对整个亚洲东部降水日变化的模拟最优。目前模式对海陆风的模拟还不太理想,未来要进一步提高模式模拟性能,需要重点完善与气温、降水过程相关的物理参数化方案。  相似文献   

2022冬奥会背景下北京区域居民参与冰雪运动消费调查     

胡良平  骆秉全  张晚萌 《地理科学》2021,41(12):2117-2126

运用文献资料、问卷调查和数理统计、应用因子分析方法,结合北京区域滑雪场空间分布情况,对比居民冰雪运动参与倾向和频率,发现北京区域居民参与冰雪运动及消费的主要影响因素为性别、年龄、距离、收入水平和政策红利;分析得出雪场密度和区域经济水平、性别等对参与冰雪运动消费特征的影响。归纳4个主要影响北京区域居民参与冰雪运动的公共因子,分别是冰雪运动基础因子、冰雪运动信息因子、冰雪运动距离因子以及冰雪运动友谊因子。提出不断提升冰雪运动产品服务质量,出台鼓励性冰雪运动消费政策,完善冰雪运动消费环境,创新冰雪运动消费内容,逐步扩大冰雪消费规模等建议。  相似文献   

通用地球系统模式对亚洲夏季风降水的模拟能力评估   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

韩春凤  刘健  王志远 《气象科学》2017,37(2):151-160

通过与观测/再分析资料和参加第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的模式模拟结果进行对比,评估了通用地球系统模式(CESM,1.0.3版本)对亚洲夏季风降水的模拟能力。结果表明:CESM能够合理地模拟出亚洲夏季风降水的气候平均态,但与其他CMIP5模式模拟结果类似,对中国东南地区降水模拟偏少,而对中国西部高原地区降水模拟偏多;CESM可以再现亚洲季风区降水冬弱夏强、雨带北进南退的季节变化特征,其模拟偏差具有区域性和季节性差异;从EOF分析结果来看,CESM能够模拟出亚洲夏季风降水的时空变化特征,且能较好地抓住亚洲夏季风降水与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,简称ENSO)的相关关系。总的说来,CESM对亚洲夏季风降水的模拟是合理的,模拟水平与4个最好的CMIP5模式相当。  相似文献   

Community forest management in Indonesia: Avoided deforestation in the context of anthropogenic and climate complexities     

《Global Environmental Change》2017

Community forest management has been identified as a win-win option for reducing deforestation while improving the welfare of rural communities in developing countries. Despite considerable investment in community forestry globally, systematic evaluations of the impact of these policies at appropriate scales are lacking. We assessed the extent to which deforestation has been avoided as a result of the Indonesian government’s community forestry scheme, Hutan Desa (Village Forest). We used annual data on deforestation rates between 2012 and 2016 from two rapidly developing islands: Sumatra and Kalimantan. The total area of Hutan Desa increased from 750 km² in 2012 to 2500 km² in 2016. We applied a spatial matching approach to account for biophysical variables affecting deforestation and Hutan Desa selection criteria. Performance was assessed relative to a counterfactual likelihood of deforestation in the absence of Hutan Desa tenure. We found that Hutan Desa management has successfully achieved avoided deforestation overall, but performance has been increasingly variable through time. Hutan Desa performance was influenced by anthropogenic and climatic factors, as well as land use history. Hutan Desa allocated on watershed protection forest or limited production forest typically led to a less avoided deforestation regardless of location. Conversely, Hutan Desa granted on permanent or convertible production forest had variable performance across different years and locations. The amount of rainfall during the dry season in any given year was an important climatic factor influencing performance. Extremely dry conditions during drought years pose additional challenges to Hutan Desa management, particularly on peatland, due to increased vulnerability to fire outbreaks. This study demonstrates how the performance of Hutan Desa in avoiding deforestation is fundamentally affected by biophysical and anthropogenic circumstances over time and space. Our study improves understanding on where and when the policy is most effective with respect to deforestation, and helps identify opportunities to improve policy implementation. This provides an important first step towards evaluating the overall effectiveness of this policy in achieving both social and environmental goals.  相似文献   

Measuring Community and University Impacts of Critical Civic Geography: Insights from Chicago     

Daniel R. Block  Euan Hague  Winifred Curran  Howard Rosing 《The Professional geographer》2018,70(2):284-290

Geographers have increasingly adopted community-based learning and research into their teaching and scholarly activities since Bunge and Harvey called for an applied public geography that is both useful and challenges societal inequalities. With few exceptions, however, there has been little discussion of methods for measuring this work. Many published assessments focus on the impacts of projects on students but overlook the impacts on community partners. Impacts on faculty and the larger university community are also often ignored. This article discusses literature on the evaluation of community–university research and service learning from a critical perspective. A discussion of service learning and community-based research (CBR) projects at two Chicago universities, DePaul and Chicago State, is presented. In both cases challenges were encountered to achieve full evaluation of projects, yet both included an evaluation of university and community partners that allowed for assessment of the projects’ value to all partners.  相似文献   

Carbon pricing in practice: a review of existing emissions trading systems     

Easwaran Narassimhan  Stefan Koester  Julio Rivera Alejo 《Climate Policy》2018,18(8):967-991

This article analyses the implementation of emissions trading systems (ETSs) in eight jurisdictions: the EU, Switzerland, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and California in the US, Québec in Canada, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea and pilot schemes in China. The article clarifies what is working, what isn’t and why, when it comes to the practice of implementing an ETS. The eight ETSs are evaluated against five main criteria: environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency, market management, revenue management and stakeholder engagement. Within each of these categories, ETS attributes ? including abatement cost, stringency of the cap, improved allocation practices over time and the trajectory of price stability ? are assessed for each system. Institutional learning, administrative prudence, appropriate carbon revenue management and stakeholder engagement are identified as key ingredients for successful ETS regimes. Recent implementation of ETSs in regions including California, Québec and South Korea indicates significant institutional learning from prior systems, especially the EU ETS, with these regions implementing more robust administrative and regulatory structures suitable for handling unique national and sub-national opportunities and constraints. The analysis also shows that there is potential for a ‘double dividend’ in emissions reductions even with a modest carbon price, provided the cap tightens over time and a portion of the auctioned revenues are reinvested in other emissions-reduction activities. Knowledge gaps exist in understanding the interaction of pricing instruments with other climate policy instruments and how governments manage these policies to achieve optimum emissions reductions with lower administrative costs.

Key policy insights

• Countries are learning from each other on ETS implementation.

• Administrative and regulatory structures of ETS jurisdictions appear to evolve and become more robust in every ETS analysed.

• A ‘double dividend’ for emissions reductions may also exist in cases where mitigation occurs as a result of the ETS policy and when auction revenues are reinvested in other emissions-reduction activities.

  相似文献   

Assessing the distribution and impacts of Prosopis juliflora through participatory approaches     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2016

Invasive species pose global biological and economic challenges. Over the past four decades, Prosopis taxa have emerged as a major invader of the arid and semi-arid regions of the world. Prosopis juliflora, one of the highly invasive Prosopis species, is dominantly present in the Afar region of Ethiopia and continues to spread into the surrounding areas. The objective of this study was to aid the mapping, utilization, and management of the invasive P. juliflora in Afar, by employing participatory research techniques. We assessed the introduction history, impacts, uses, and control strategies of invasive P. juliflora by interviewing 108 pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. In addition, we used Participatory Mapping (PM), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Global Positioning System (GPS), and remote sensing technologies and approaches to map sites invaded by P. juliflora. Sketch maps were produced by men, women, pastoralist and agro-pastoralist groups. Experts aggregated, scaled and reproduced the sketch maps with support from the Afar communities. We provided GPS and GIS trainings to selected community members who assisted us in collecting the GPS locations of more than 70 key features and landmarks. The sketch maps were digitized and geo-referenced by experts using the 70 GPS records as control points. Geo-referenced community maps were superimposed on pan-sharpened Landsat 8 satellite images and presented to the communities for verification. We overlaid the verified community maps on ancillary land-cover layers, and detected the land-cover classes that were most affected by P. juliflora invasion. Despite its uses as source of fire wood, charcoal, and animal fodder, the species has adverse impacts on native species and livestock resources. Afar communities mapped P. juliflora infestations, particularly those that occurred near their villages, using high and moderate density classes. The two highly invaded land-cover categories were dense grassland, and exposed sand & soils. Participants collaborated in creating the produced maps, suggesting that participatory research approaches are another tool for early detection of invasive species and guiding fine-scale management strategies.  相似文献   

信息通讯技术对老年人的社区满意度影响路径——以南京市锁金社区为例   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

陈卉  甄峰 《地理科学进展》2016,35(9):1167-1176

在中国老龄化进程加快以及智慧养老快速发展的背景下,如何运用信息通讯技术(ICT)提高老年人社区生活质量成为地理学与规划学等领域的关注热点。本文选取南京市首个智慧平台落户社区——锁金社区为实证调研对象,通过构建结构方程模型结合问卷调查,探究信息通讯技术对老年人的社区满意度影响路径,其中问卷内容主要包括个人特征属性、个人ICT使用情况、社会支持情况、社区满意度等。结果表明：老年人信息设备的拥有及使用越趋向多元化,其网络活动越频繁;受教育使用水平越高、使用互联网意愿更强烈的老年人其网络活动越频繁;信息通讯技术主要通过社交类网络活动促进老年人的家庭、邻里交往,提高老年人的社会支持,从而提升社区满意度;与社区建成环境相比,社会支持对于老年人的社区满意度影响更大。因此,合理运用信息通讯技术加强老年人与家人、邻里等的联系强度,是提高老年人社区生活质量的一条可行路径。研究结果对于智慧社区、智慧养老建设具有一定的借鉴意义。  相似文献   

鹤山龙口村边次生常绿阔叶林群落分析   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

曹洪麟  蔡锡安  彭少麟  余作岳 《热带地理》1999,19(4):312-317

鹤山龙口村边次生常绿阔叶林属季风常绿阔叶林类型, 其种类组成复杂多样而富于热带性, 据１２００ ｍ２ 的样方统计, 有维管束植物６２ 种, 分属于３２ 科、５４ 属, 其中, 属热带分布的有３２ 种, 属热带－ 亚热带分布的有２１ 种, 属亚热带分布的只有７ 种, 其余２ 种为世界分布。本群落的外貌终年常绿, 层次结构复杂而不明显, 样地内高于１－５ｍ 的立木有５２ 种１８５７ 株, 灌木层种类和株数尚多, １００ ｍ２ 内有１８５株, 草本层以乔灌木幼苗为主, 草本植物较少。群落组成结构与地带性常绿阔叶林相似, 乔、灌、草各层的物种多样性指数在４ 左右, 群落均匀度为０－７ ～０－９ , 生态优势度为０－０７ ～０－１０ , 但群落明显具有次生性, 大部分优势种群呈集群分布。若能减少人为干扰破坏, 本群落将向地带性典型植被类型演替。  相似文献   

A community-based urban forest inventory using online mapping services and consumer-grade digital images     

Amr H. Abd-Elrahman  Mary E. Thornhill  Michael G. Andreu  Francisco Escobedo 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2010

Community involvement in gathering and submitting spatially referenced data via web mapping applications has recently been gaining momentum. Urban forest inventory data analyzed by programs such as the i-Tree ECO inventory method is a good candidate for such an approach. In this research, we tested the feasibility of using spatially referenced data gathered and submitted by non-professional individuals through a web application to augment urban forest inventory data. We examined the use of close range photogrammetry solutions of images taken by consumer-grade cameras to extract quantitative metric information such as crown diameter, tree heights and trunk diameters. Several tests were performed to evaluate the accuracy of the photogrammetric solutions and to examine their use in addition to existing aerial image data to supplement or partially substitute for standard i-Tree ECO field measurements.  相似文献