基于时空轨迹数据的传染病传播风险评估     

宫路  刘湘南  邹信裕 《测绘学报》2015,(Z1):6-12

本文利用CRAWDAD提供的2009年10月份纽约市的出租车时空轨迹数据,依据复杂网络理论在城市交通网络中的应用,提出了一种方法求解出租车空间密度表示移动人群的时空密度变化,并用不同时段的平均速度表示人群的移动速度综合判定传染病在市内传播的高风险区域,重点分析了13时传染病传播的风险区位。通过建立空间密度与平均速度的二维特征空间,并将齐夫定律与能够遍历曼哈顿区的最大速度作为条件确定传染病传播的风险边界。结果反映在二维特征空间中,由最大遍历速度、安全行驶的空间密度临界值与数据上边界围成的三角区内节点对应的实际区位为传染病传播的高危区域。  相似文献   

Application of GIS and remote sensing techniques in frost risk mapping for mitigating agricultural losses in the Aberdare ecosystem,Kenya   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Susan Malaso Kotikot  Simon M. Onywere 《国际地球制图》2015,30(1):104-121

Frost is a perennial agricultural hazard that normally causes crop damage leading to huge agricultural losses within the Kenyan highlands; aggravated by inadequate information on frost. This research mapped frost hotspots within the Aberdare and Mount Kenya regions and identified the extent of arable land under frost risk while establishing the trend of minimum temperature occurrences between the years 2000 and 2013. Minimum temperature values were extracted from daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land surface temperature data-sets, and frost risk categorized into very severe frost (<250 K), severe frost (250–260 K), moderate frost (260–270 K), minor frost (270–280 K) and areas of no frost. Concentration of frost (<273 K) was mapped within regions above 1500 m asl and occasional occurrences within valleys lower than this altitude with recurrent occurrences in the months of April, May, July, August and November. Elevation, land surface convexity and humidity were found to influence frost occurrence. Improved agricultural practice to mitigate against losses is recommended.  相似文献   

2017年九寨沟7.0级地震前应力状态及b值异常特征研究          下载免费PDF全文

姜佳佳  冯建刚 《地震工程学报》2021,43(3):575-582

2017年8月8日青藏高原东缘四川九寨沟地区发生7.0级强震,依据前人研究结果分析九寨沟7.0级地震发震构造,并计算震前应力状态。结果显示:本次地震受到构造和历史强震的影响,是发生在历史强震引起的应力加载区域。另外,采用中国地震台网1990年以来的地震目录,在评估目录完整性的基础上,利用最大似然法计算得到2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震前震源区及邻区地震b值空间图像。结果显示,九寨沟7.0级地震发生在四川北部地区显著低b值高应力异常区域内部(0.82b0.75)。所以,研究区域内外历史强震可能促进了九寨沟7.0级地震的发生。  相似文献   

新疆地区区域应力场特征及强震间库仑应力变化探讨          下载免费PDF全文

刘方斌  古丽孜娜提·依德热斯  曲均浩 《地震工程学报》2021,43(5):1024-1036

首先利用新疆地区自1900年以来的828个M_S≥3.0地震的震源机制解,采用区域应力张量阻尼反演方法获得新疆地区区域应力场特征,结果显示新疆地区区域应力状态大多数地震为逆断和走滑性质,最大水平主压应力优势方位近SN向,伴有局部地区的拉张和剪切作用。然后根据区域应力场特征及区内强震空间分布特征,划分为天山地区、喀什—乌恰地区以及昆仑—阿尔金三个地区,并对区内强震间的库仑应力变化进行计算。得出天山地区强震对后续地震的发生几乎影响不大,个别地震存在延缓发生的现象;喀什—乌恰交汇区是强震多发区,且震中位置分布较密集,地震之间触发或延迟作用明显;昆仑—阿尔金地区除2008年于田地震对2014年于田地震的发生有一定的触发作用外,其他地震之间的影响作用不大。最后,计算强震对周边断层的库仑应力变化,结果发现博罗科努断裂西侧中段、卡兹克阿尔特断裂西段、木吉断裂西段以及和田断裂西段不同程度的库仑应力增加,具有一定的地震危险性。  相似文献   

基于多手段异常结果的地震综合概率预测     

窦喜英  王恩利  张丽琼  李敏娟  马海萍 《地震地磁观测与研究》2021,42(2):141-142

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Prevention of oil spill from shipping by modelling of dynamic risk   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Eide MS  Endresen O  Breivik O  Brude OW  Ellingsen IH  Røang K  Hauge J  Brett PO 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(10):1619-1633

This paper presents a new dynamic environmental risk model, with intended use within a new, dynamical approach for risk based ship traffic prioritisation. The philosophy behind this newly developed approach is that shipping risk can be reduced by directing efforts towards ships and areas that have been identified as high priority (high risk), prior to a potential accident. The risk model proposed in this paper separates itself from previous models by drawing on available information on dynamic factors and by focusing on the ship's surroundings. The model estimates the environmental risk of drift grounding accidents for oil tankers in real time and in forecast mode, combining the probability of grounding with oil spill impact on the coastline. Results show that the inherent dynamic risk introduced by an oil tanker sailing along the North Norwegian coast depends, not surprisingly, significantly upon wind and ocean currents, as well as tug position and cargo oil type. Results of this study indicate that the risk model is well suited for real time risk assessment, and effectively separates low risk and high risk situations. The model is well suited as a tool to prioritise oil tankers and coastal segments. This enables dynamic risk based positioning of tugs, using both real-time and projected risk, for effective support in case of a drifting ship situation.  相似文献   

Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol     

Toyofuku H 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,53(10-12):579-590

For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world.  相似文献   

从中东某区块勘探项目的运作谈海外石油风险勘探值得注意的几个问题     

张斌 《安徽地质》2006,16(1):9-15

自上个世纪90年代以来,我国经济的高速发展引发了石油消费的快速增长,石油对外依存度逐年提高。为确保国家石油安全,中国三大石油公司作为国家“走出去”战略的实践者,大力开拓海外石油市场,取得了初步的成效。本文从中东地区某资源国一个石油风险勘探项目入手,通过分析中国石油公司在该资源国实施石油风险勘探项目过程中遇到的问题和困难,然后以点带面,重点从国家层面上有针对性地提出了解决问题的建议,以推动和保证海外风险勘探事业的持续和良性发展。  相似文献   

洪水风险图管理与应用系统的设计与实现     

李红亮  万庆 《测绘科学》2012,37(6):163-165

洪水风险图是洪水管理的重要技术支撑,当洪水风险图的编制成果积累到一定程度时,面临着如何有效管理和共享应用的问题。文章在分析洪水风险图的数据特点以及在管理和应用上的功能与性能需求的基础上,采用面向服务思想的地理信息共享技术,设计了洪水风险图的管理与应用系统。该系统为洪水风险图空间数据和专题数据的有效管理和应用提供了信息交流和共享的平台,有利于洪水风险图编制和应用的推广。  相似文献   

The Wild Life of Pesticides: urban agriculture,institutional responsibility,and the future of biodiversity in Sydney's Hawkesbury-Nepean River     

Roel Plant  Jeremy Walker  Scott Rayburg  Jacqueline Gothe  Teresa Leung 《The Australian geographer》2012,43(1):75-91

Agricultural chemicals are a notoriously intractable source of environmental pollution. Offering enhanced agricultural productivity, they simultaneously risk degrading the ecological basis upon which agriculture depends. This paper considers chemicalisation as a cause of the erosion of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem resilience, focusing on the Hawkesbury-Nepean River and the small-scale horticulturalists who supply the city's fresh vegetable markets, working under the pressure of urbanisation, retail monopolies, indifferent land-use planning, and often without access to information about pesticide use in the languages they understand. Arguing that standard practices of ‘risk management’ are unable to adequately control chemical contamination, the paper presents findings from interviews with actors within the ‘assemblage’ of institutions with responsibility for agriculture, water quality, and environmental protection, in order to assess the effectiveness of pesticide governance in the Greater Sydney Basin. It appears that pesticide pollution is far from being tamed: it is rarely measured nor monitored, neither is it a priority of any particular agency. Arguing that public health, the long-term viability of local farming and the ecological well-being of the Hawkesbury-Nepean River are mutually consistent goals, we conclude that these vital elements of the common-weal are currently subject to a system of ‘organised irresponsibility’. The paper concludes by proposing several ways forward.  相似文献