Analysis of Post-Failure Slope Movements within the Framework of Hazard and Risk Analysis     

Vaunat  Jean  Leroueil  Serge 《Natural Hazards》2002,26(1):81-107

The paper first recalls briefly a methodological framework to assess landslide hazard and risk analysis in terms of predisposition, triggering andrevealing factors. This framework, that reflects the mechanisms involved in the landslide, is based on the Geotechnical Characterisation of slope movements proposed by Vaunat et al. (1994) and Leroueil et al. (1996). The Geotechnical Characterisation can be schematized by a 3-D matrix having the following axes: types of movement; types ofmaterial; and the four stages of movement: pre-failure, failure, post-failure andreactivation. For each relevant element of this 3-D matrix, there is a characterisationsheet including: the controlling laws and parameters, the predisposition factors, thetriggering or aggravating factors, the revealing factors and the consequences of the movement. The paper focuses afterwards on the post-failure stage, which generallyis the most destructive, and on the mobility index. It is shown that this laterindex can be described as the product of sub-indices associated with failure, brittlenessof the material, ability of the soil to develop pore pressures, geometry of the moving soil mass and characteristics of the terrain. It is also shown how these aspectscan be incorporated into the Geotechnical characterisation of slope movements. This seems to provide a rational basis for examining slope movements at the post-failure stage and assessing associated risks.  相似文献   

An Agricultural Land Resource Assessment Study Based on GIS—An Example from Guiyang City     

刘建军  李春来  万鹰昕 《中国地球化学学报》2002,21(1):79-88

This paper assesses the agricultural land resources of Guiyang City by means of GIS,on the basis of the pressure-state-response model in which soil heavy metal contamination is selected as a pressure indicatror.he results suggest that most of the agricultural land resources are of good quality,However,there are 17.11km^2 dry land and paddy field,which belong to the region of serious heavy metal contamination and are not fit for planting crops.At the same time,the high quality plowland,which is suitable for cultivation,has decreased nearly by 1/3 due to soil heavy metal contamination.These findings may improve our understanding that it is very important to prevent and cure heavy metal contamination of Guiyang City.  相似文献   

Seismic Hazard for Selected Sites in Greece: A Bayesian Estimate of Seismic Peak Ground Acceleration   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

A. A. Lyubushin  T. M. Tsapanos  V. F. Pisarenko  G. Ch. Koravos 《Natural Hazards》2002,25(1):83-98

A procedure for estimating maximum values of seismic peak ground accelerationat the examined site and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution in a future timeinterval of a given length is considered. The input information for the method areseismic catalog and regression relation between peak seismic acceleration at a givenpoint and magnitude and distance from the site to epicenter (seismic attenuation law).The method is based on Bayesian approach, which simply accounts for influenceof uncertainties of seismic acceleration values. The main assumptions for the method are Poissonian character of seismic events flow and distribution law of Gutenberg-Richter's type. The method is applied to seismic hazard estimation in six selected sitesin Greece.  相似文献   

The Mount Parnitha (Athens) Earthquake of September 7, 1999: A Disaster Management Perspective     

Pomonis  Antonios 《Natural Hazards》2002,27(1-2):171-199

Natural Hazards - Strong earthquakes in the proximity of densely inhabited urban areas pose one ofthe most complicated disaster management situations faced by societies today. Herethe experience...  相似文献   

Documentary and Geological Records of Tsunamis in the Aegean Sea Region of Greece and their Potential Value to Risk Assessment and Disaster Management     

Dominey-Howes  Dale 《Natural Hazards》2002,25(3):195-224

Understanding the nature and impacts of tsunamis within the Aegean Sea region ofGreece is of importance to both the academic community and those organisationsconcerned with tsunami disaster management. In order to determine hazard and riskand consequently pre-plan mitigative strategies, it is necessary to analyse historical(documentary) and geological records of former tsunami events. Therefore, firstlythis paper provides a summary of the written sources of information on Aegeantsunamis paying particular attention to published catalogues. From the availabledata, it is noted that a large number of events have been reported during the last3500 years. Secondly, the paper provides a review of the published on-shore(terrestrial) geological records of tsunamis within the region. From this analysisit is seen that little geological evidence has been identified for the large numberof tsunamis reported in the catalogues. Thirdly, the paper considers the reliabilityof the written and geological records and how problems of accuracy, coverage,extent and reliability, may have potential implications for the estimation of hazardand risk. The paper concludes by making recommendations for disaster managers,geologists and historians to work closely together.  相似文献   

天祝-古浪5.4级地震震源机制和发震断层以及海原西断裂大震危险性讨论          下载免费PDF全文

李亚荣  朱新运 《地震工程学报》2002,24(3):236-240

研究了发生在海西断裂天祝拉分盆地1996年6月1日5.4级地震的震源机制，利用位于天祝－古浪地区的数字式微震监测台网纪录的余震的精确定位确定了本次地震的发震断层，研究表明这次地震是天祝拉分盆地中垂直于主断裂的近南北向断裂所形成，根据破裂模型和海原西断裂的应力积累状况，讨论了海原西断裂近期的大震危险性。  相似文献   

华北近十年来水平运动动态与地震活动危险区的讨论     

周晓燕  杨国华  韩月萍 《华北地震科学》2002,20(4):28-33

根据华北地区1999年和2001年两期高精度GPS观测结果，通过与1992，1995，1996年和1999年这几期资料的比较，发现近两年的运动与前有所不同，主要表现为：（1）阴山单元和鄂尔多斯单元之间显示为压性运动的性质，但比较微弱，它们之间的边界带上似乎有左旋走滑运动，但从整体上看并不显著。（2）晋冀鲁单元和燕山单元的整体活动性不如以前，各单元内部存在着较明显的差异运动，并山单元和晋冀鲁单元的北部存在着比较显著的东西向挤压，北京地区则表现为南北向挤压。（3）晋冀鲁单元南部与胶辽鲁苏单元的南部的趋势活动呈张性，优势运动方向为东南，这样的结果可能表明，华北目前存在着应力扰动行为，大同与天津之间的区域是受其影响最大的地区，该区有可能成为未来几年中强地震活动的一个主体地区。  相似文献   

The El Salvador earthquakes of January and February 2001: context, characteristics and implications for seismic risk     

J. J. Bommer  M. B. Benito  M. Ciudad-Real  A. Lemoine  M. A. Lpez-Menjívar  R. Madariaga  J. Mankelow  P. Mndez de Hasbun  W. Murphy  M. Nieto-Lovo  C. E. Rodríguez-Pineda  H. Rosa 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2002,22(5)

The small Central American republic of El Salvador has experienced, on average, one destructive earthquake per decade during the last hundred years. The latest events occurred on 13 January and 13 February 2001, with magnitudes M_w 7.7 and 6.6, respectively. The two events, which were of different tectonic origin, follow the patterns of the seismicity of the region although neither event has a known precedent in the earthquake catalogue in terms of size and location. The earthquakes caused damage to thousands of traditionally built houses and triggered hundreds of landslides, which were the main causes of fatalities. The earthquakes have clearly demonstrated trends of increasing seismic risk in El Salvador due to rapid population expansion in areas of high shaking and landslide hazard, exacerbated by deforestation and uncontrolled urbanisation. The institutional mechanisms required for the control of land use and building practice are very weak and present a major obstacle to risk mitigation.  相似文献   

A methodology for the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic flows in Campi Flegrei (Italy)     

I. Alberico  L. Lirer  P. Petrosino  R. Scandone 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2002,116(1-2)

The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km² caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps.  相似文献   

城市震害高危害小区的研究和GIS的实现技术   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

帅向华  成小平  袁一凡 《地震》2002,22(3):113-119

论述了在城市地震灾害中如何考虑诸方面因素来评价城市的灾害轻重分布情况。中建立坑危害小区分析模型，设想将城市划分等面积网格，给每个单元网格赋予灾害指数，以确定城市中受灾较为严重的区域，为求灾指挥提供决策信息。同时，将高危害小区的模型研究结果转化为计算机技术可以实现的GIS模型。该研究结果已应用于泰安市防震减灾示范研究项目中。  相似文献