Climate change and post-politics: Repoliticizing the present by imagining the future?     

《Geoforum》2014

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An approximation to the reliability of series geotechnical systems using a linearization approach     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2014

A method based on the linearization of the limit state functions (LSFs) is applied to evaluate the reliability of series geotechnical systems. The approach only needs information provided by first order reliability method (FORM) results: the vector of reliability indices, β, of the LSFs composing the system; and their correlation matrix, R. Two common geotechnical problems—the stability of a slope in layered soil and a circular tunnel in rock—are employed to demonstrate the simplicity, accuracy and efficiency of the suggested procedure, and advantages of the linearization approach with respect to alternative computational tools are discussed. It is also found that, if necessary, the second order reliability method (SORM)—that approximates the true LSF better than FORM—can be employed to compute better estimations of the system’s reliability.  相似文献   

皖南南华系上溪群羊栈岭组中段细碎屑岩的地球化学特征及其地质意义          下载免费PDF全文

程成  李双应  王松  彭亮  芦艳琳  黄家龙 《地质科学》2014,(2):651-667

皖南地区前寒武纪地层广泛出露,包括上溪群和溪口群,其中上溪群羊栈岭组中段岩性以泥岩、粉砂岩和细砂岩等细碎屑岩为主,并含有多套砾岩层。通过对绩溪县杨溪镇和东至县葛公镇剖面羊栈岭组中段细碎屑岩的地球化学分析,发现羊栈岭组中段样品具有相对较高的Al₂O₃/TiO₂比值（21.57）、较高的LREE/HREE比值（6.98）和明显的负Eu异常（0.71）,在TiO₂和Al₂O₃二元图解、Zr和TiO₂二元图解及La/Th-Hf二元图解中,大多数样品落入长英质物源区中。表明它们的物源以长英质岩石为主。此外,反映源区风化程度的参数CIA、CIW和PIA值均较低,平均值分别为71.6、75.4和71.2,分别低于PAAS的76.4、82.7和79.0,表明源区的风化程度较低。将样品的地球化学特征和皖南新元古代岩体和火山岩进行比较,发现它们具有亲缘性,结合其它岩石学和地层学证据认为这些岩体和火山岩为沉积物提供了重要的物源。在主量元素判别图中,样品主要落入活动大陆边缘区并受大陆岛弧的影响,在微量元素构造背景判别图中,样品均落入大陆岛弧区。此外,样品的各种REE元素特征值属于大陆岛弧来源的沉积物的范围,同时又与活动大陆边缘沉积物相近,指示羊栈岭组中段可能代表了一套活动大陆边缘的弧后盆地沉积。而羊栈岭组中段作为一次完整的海侵-海退序列中的一部分可以代表整个上溪群形成的构造背景。  相似文献   

基于LMDZ模型的蒙古高原降水氢氧稳定同位素特征及水汽来源分析     

陈举藩  陈粉丽  武茜茜  周鑫  汝海丽  刘雪媛 《地理科学》2022,42(9):1654-1664

基于LMDZ（Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Zoom）模型的模拟数据、NCEP/ NCAR格点气象数据和北极涛动指数（Arctic Oscillation Index,AOI),验证了LMDZ模型在蒙古高原的适用性,分析了局地大气水线（Local Meteoric Water Line,LMWL）、降水中δ¹⁸O与环境因子的关系,探索了降水中δ¹⁸O、氘盈余（d-excess）的时空变化,并结合HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model)模型对蒙古高原气团运输轨迹进行了模拟。结果表明：在LMDZ模型的2种结果中,LMDZ-nudged模拟蒙古高原降水稳定同位素效果较好;计算得到的蒙古高原LMWL为δD=7.78δ¹⁸O+3.31(R²=0.995),其斜率和截距均小于全球大气水线( Global Meteoric Water Line,GMWL)斜率和截距,表明该区域雨滴下落中受云下二次蒸发影响较大;降水中δ¹⁸O夏高冬低,与温度、北极涛动指数呈正相关,而与相对湿度呈负相关。降水中d-excess呈现夏低冬高的特点;对蒙古高原后向轨迹追踪并对其进行聚类分析发现,研究区主要有3条水汽路径：西风带水汽（约88.39%）、东亚季风水汽（约5.73%）与极地水汽（约5.88%）,其中西风带水汽为主控水汽。  相似文献   

A New Statistical Downscaling Scheme for Predicting Winter Precipitation in China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

LIU Ying  FAN Ke  YAN Yu-Ping 《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,6(5):332-336

An effective statistical downscaling scheme was developed on the basis of singular value decomposition to predict boreal winter(December-January-February)precipitation over China.The variable geopotential height at 500 hPa(GH5)over East Asia,which was obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Coupled Forecast System(NCEP CFS),was used as one predictor for the scheme.The preceding sea ice concentration(SIC)signal obtained from observed data over high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere was chosen as an additional predictor.This downscaling scheme showed significantly improvement in predictability over the original CFS general circulation model(GCM)output in cross validation.The multi-year average spatial anomaly correlation coefficient increased from–0.03 to 0.31,and the downscaling temporal root-mean-square-error(RMSE)decreased significantly over that of the original CFS GCM for most China stations.Furthermore,large precipitation anomaly centers were reproduced with greater accuracy in the downscaling scheme than those in the original CFS GCM,and the anomaly correlation coefficient between the observation and downscaling results reached～0.6 in the winter of 2008.  相似文献   

双线偏振雷达差分反射率因子系统误差订正   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

杜牧云  刘黎平  胡志群 《高原气象》2013,32(4)

差分反射率因子ZDR易受雷达系统自身的影响而产生明显偏差,这种偏差是不随空间积累而改变的.为了保证雷达资料及其产品的质量,根据中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室车载C波段双线偏振多普勒雷达(C-band Polarimetric Doppler Radar on Wheel,CPDRW)的外场试验,对观测的ZDR进行了分析,并以垂直扫描数据的订正结果为参考,重点讨论了以体扫模式最高仰角下的小雨和干雪这两种自然目标物为订正对象得到的订正结果.结果表明,高仰角体扫资料的这两种自然目标物都能较好地订正ZDR的系统误差.但相较于小雨,干雪的订正效果更加稳定,是进行ZDR系统误差订正的最优气象目标物,而利用高仰角体扫资料的干雪粒子进行ZDR系统误差订正也就成为垂直扫描订正法的最佳替代方法.  相似文献   

Structural controls on a geothermal system in the Tarutung Basin,north central Sumatra     

《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2013

The Sumatra Fault System provides a unique geologic setting to evaluate the influence of structural controls on geothermal activity. Whereas most of the geothermal systems in Indonesia are controlled by volcanic activity, geothermal systems at the Sumatra Fault System might be controlled by faults and fractures. Exploration strategies for these geothermal systems need to be verified because the typical pattern of heat source and alteration clays are missing so that conventional exploration with magnetotelluric surveys might not provide sufficient data to delineate favorable settings for drilling. We present field geological, structural and geomorphological evidence combined with mapping of geothermal manifestations to allow constraints between fault dynamics and geothermal activity in the Tarutung Basin in north central Sumatra. Our results indicate that the fault pattern in the Tarutung Basin is generated by a compressional stress direction acting at a high angle to the right-lateral Sumatra Fault System. NW–SE striking normal faults possibly related to negative flower structures and NNW-SSE to NNE-SSW oriented dilative Riedel shears are preferential fluid pathways whereas ENE–WSW striking faults act as barriers in this system. The dominant of geothermal manifestations at the eastern part of the basin indicates local extension due to clockwise block rotation in the Sumatra Fault System. Our results support the effort to integrate detailed field geological surveys to refined exploration strategies even in tropical areas where outcrops are limited.  相似文献   

Present true polar wander in the frame of the Geotectonic Reference System     

Nazario Pavoni 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2008,101(3):629-636

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Identification of non-linear and non-stationary soil properties during the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu earthquake     

A. Mikami  T. Sawada  T. Ekawa 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2003,23(4):279

An extended Kalman filter algorithm with local iteration is presented for the identification of non-linear and non-stationary soil properties. Borehole-array strong motions were recorded at a liquefied site during the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu earthquake. In this study, a modified Kalman filtering method in which the extended Kalman filter is iteratively used at every local time-step to track rapid parameter changes is proposed. The method is then applied to the instrumented soil layer, which is modeled by an equivalent linear model. An identification of non-linear and non-stationary soil properties was conducted successfully; and non-linear restoring force–displacement relationships including progression with time were obtained.  相似文献   

连翘高产栽培技术   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吴顺琴  徐世有  阮丽萍  杨真 《山西气象》2006,(3):33-34

本文介绍了现在比较常用的W in2000操作系统下安全功能配置,如何在Internet网上采取信息安全防范措施,以及使用这些防范措施过程中的一些经验和技巧,以提高整个系统的安全性和稳定性。  相似文献