合肥市水资源供需平衡研究     

周迪  朱梅  王振龙  许良元 《地下水》2015,(4)

针对合肥市水资源现状,分析合肥市水资源特点。结合节水型社会建设的要求,采用相应的定额,预测分析了各行业需水量和供水量,对合肥市2015和2020年的水资源供需平衡进行了二次分析。结果表明:在一次平衡方案下,到2015年,合肥市仅在95%特枯年份下缺水,缺水度为19.16%,水资源基本能满足社会经济的发展。至2020年,合肥市在不同保证率年份下均有缺水,其中,50%频率平水年份的缺水度为3.1%,75%枯水年份的缺水度为4.34%,95%特枯年份缺水度为13.09%,表明未来合肥市水资源紧缺将会成为制约社会经济发展的"瓶颈"。在二次平衡方案下,合肥市仅在2015年和2020年95%特枯年份下有少量缺水,缺水度分别为7.6%和10.21%。最后提出相应的建议,为保证合肥市经济社会、可持续地发展提供科学的依据。  相似文献   

Modeling demand/supply of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China during the late 1980s to 2010     

LIU Xingran  SHEN Yanjun  GUO Ying  LI Shuo  GUO Bin 《地理学报(英文版)》2015,25(5)

  相似文献   

城镇化背景下中国长期低碳转型路径研究     

刘俊伶  王克  夏侯沁蕊  刘芳名  邹骥  孔英 《气候变化研究进展》2020,16(3):355-366

在中国经济步入新常态之际,为了研究城镇化背景下的长期碳排放趋势,构建了人口变动与能源系统互动的综合分析框架与社会经济-能源系统模型。结果显示,从2014年至2050年,预计有3亿人口从农村流向城市,并呈现从中小型城市逐步向大型和特大型城市汇集的趋势。人口流动趋势与人民生活质量改善结合,推动中国基础设施建设、工业产品生产和能源服务需求增长。基准情景下,2050年中国一次能源消费总量达到84亿tce,能源相关CO₂排放达到176亿t,比2013年增长83%;而在低碳转型情景下,通过技术创新,2050年中国一次能源消费需求可以控制在61亿tce左右,CO₂排放在2020—2025年间达峰,2050年比基准情景降低78%。低碳转型过程中,非化石能源电力和能效技术的减排潜力最大,工业和电力部门率先在2020年达峰,建筑和交通 ^①（①按照国际通行的能源系统部门划分标准和能耗概念,工业、建筑、交通均属于终端能源消费部门,其中建筑部门能耗指建筑运行能耗,而非建筑建造过程中的能耗;交通部门能耗指所有交通活动能耗,既包括交通运输业营运类运输工具的交通能耗,也包括私人、公务非营运类运输工具的交通能耗 ^[1]。）将在2030年左右达峰。实现低碳转型所需新增固定投资占GDP的1.5%,不会给国民经济带来重大负担。中国实施新型城镇化战略具有技术和经济可行性。  相似文献   

Estimating the CDM market under the Marrakech Accords     

《Climate Policy》2013,13(2-3):179-196

Abstract

The agreement on implementation of the Kyoto Protocol achieved at COP7 in Marrakech has important implications for investment in greenhouse gas emission reduction projects in developing countries through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The required actual emission reductions for participating Annex B countries overall will be relatively small, as the United States do not intend to ratify the protocol and significant amounts of carbon sequestered in domestic sinks can be credited. In addition, the potential supply of surplus emission permits (hot air) from Russia and other economies in transition may be as high as total demand in the first commitment period. Thus, even under restraint of hot air sellers, CDM demand will be limited, and a low demand, low price carbon market scenario appears likely.

The magnitude of the CDM will be influenced by a host of factors both on the demand and the supply-side. We analyse these using a quantitative model of the global carbon market, based on marginal abatement cost curves. Implementation and transaction costs, as well as baseline and additionality rules affect the CDM's share in the carbon market. Demand for the CDM is sensitive to changes in business-as-usual emissions growth in participating Annex B countries, and also to crediting for additional sinks. Permit supply from Russia and other economies in transition is possibly the most crucial factor in the carbon market.  相似文献   

ANALYSIS ON AGRICULTRUAL INFORMATION DEMAND——Case of Jilin Province     

ZHANG Hui-min JIANG Hui-ming 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2005,15(3):281-287

With the rapid development of agricultural informalization in the world, the demand of agricultural information has been a focus in the international agriculture and information fields. Based on the investigation, this paper presented the four characteristics of the demand of agricultural information in China, includingregionality, seasonality, great potential demand and variation in kind and level. The factors infuencing the demand of agricultural information were analyzed by the Optimized Less Square （OLS） method. The result shows that, of all factors influcing agricultural information demand, the most important one is economy, the second is facility of information pass, and knowledge and education of user, credit of agricultural information service system and production situation follow. Taking Jilin Province as an example, this article also elaborated the agricultural information demand status, and deduced the regression model of agricultural information demand and verified it by the survey in rural Jilin.  相似文献   

航空收入管理的需求修复方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈瑜  罗利 《成都信息工程学院学报》2005,20(6):747-750

由于收入管理策略的执行和顾客行为的影响，使收入管理系统中记录的需求数据不能反映真实的需求，较好的修复这些受约束的需求将有利于航空公司更加准确的预测市场需求，制订出更加正确的策略，从而获得更多的收益。基于此，将统计中用于解决不完全数据的EM法和PD法应用到航空需求修复问题中，并通过模拟数据对两个方法进行分析说明。  相似文献   

Inelastic torsional response of buildings to the 1985 Mexican earthquake: a parametric study     

A. M. Chandler

G. L. Hutchinson  W. Jiang 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》1991,10(8):429-439

This study aims to determine the influence of torsional coupling on the inelastic response of a series of models representing typical structural configurations in real buildings. The lake bed (SCT) east-west component of the 1985 Mexico City earthquake was employed in the analysis, and is representative of a severe ground motion known to have induced large inelastic structural deformations in a high proportion of those buildings having asymmetrical distributions of stiffness and/or strength. Material non-linearity in lateral load-resisting elements has been defined using a hysteretic Ramberg-Osgood model. Structural eccentricities have been introduced into the building models by (i) asymmetrical distributions of stiffness and/or strength, (ii) asymmetrical configuration of lateral load-resisting elements, or (iii) varying post-elastic material behaviour in the resisting elements. The dynamic inelastic response of these models has been obtained by a numerical integration of the relevant equations of motion, expressed in a non-dimensional incremental form.

In the elastic range, the results correlate well with those of previous studies. In the inelastic range, it is concluded that the peak ductility demand of the worst-affected element increases with the ground excitation level across the range of building periods considered, and that the influence of torsional coupling on the key response parameters is model dependent. Most significantly, the strength eccentricity relative to the centre of mass has been shown to influence the peak edge displacement response more than conventionally employed stiffness eccentricity.  相似文献   

SUSTAINABLE LAND USE PLANNING BASED ON ECOLOGICAL HEALTH——Case Study of Beiwenquan Town, Chongqing, China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

SHAOJing-an WEIChao-fu XIEDe-ti 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2005,15(2):137-144

1IN T R O D U C T IO N Since the20th century, ecosystem and even biosphere has been facedwith threat sunder theimpactsofclimate and humankind together(E RICH and ULRIKE , 2002 ; G LADE ,2003 ;O LGERTS etal.,2005 ).Land isan im- portantpartof natureecosyst…  相似文献   

昆承湖水流水质计算分析     

秦毅  李瑞杰  朱文谨  曹晶晶 《海洋湖沼通报》2009,(2)

在模拟昆承湖水流流场的基础上,模拟化学需氧量(CODMn)在湖水中的扩散情况;同时,利用昆承湖实测资料和水质的浓度场计算结果,得到其枯季环境容量.可以看出,昆承湖的流速较小,且方向由西北流向东南,可能是受长江径流和湖底西北高东南低的地形特征影响;从昆承湖的CODMn浓度实测值和计算值中,可以看出小于其水环境质量标准限值.这将进一步为实现常熟市湖泊水环境质量的不断提高、生态状况的持续改善与科学管理提供依据.  相似文献   

SOFTWARE REVIEWS     

《The Professional geographer》1988,40(2):243-247

software reviews are in this article MACATLAS . Number Cruncher Statistical System (NCSS) TRANSPRO FIRE-ROUTER  相似文献