New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data     

G. Grünthal  R. Wahlström 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):159-176

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.  相似文献   

The Record of an Extreme Flood in the Sediments of Montane Lillooet Lake, British Columbia: Implications for Paleoenvironmental Assessment     

Robert Gilbert  Sarah Crookshanks  Kyle R. Hodder  John Spagnol  Roland B. Stull 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,35(4):737-745

Severe rainfall in mid October, 2003 produced the largest floods in almost a century of record on rivers in the Cordillera of southwestern British Columbia. Sediment deposited in Lillooet Lake as a result of this event is clearly distinguished by stratigraphy, colour, texture, magnetic properties, and organic content. Each of these physical properties is related to the lacustrine processes, especially turbid underflow, that distributed the sediment through the lake. The flood, which lasted less than a week, delivered 8–12 times the amount of sediment that accumulates in most entire years in the deepest, central parts of the lake. Recognition of events of this type in the stratigraphic record offers a means of assessing the changing nature of extreme hydroclimatic events, and their relation to more ubiquitous, lower-energy processes.  相似文献   

Evidence of reworking and resuspension of carbonates during last glacial maximum and early deglacial period along the southwest coast of India     

Kamlesh Verma  M Sudhakar 《Journal of Earth System Science》2006,115(6):695-702

A gravity core collected from the upper slope of southwest of Quilon at a water depth of 776 m (Lat: 8°12′263″N, Long: 76°28′281″E) was analysed for texture (carbonate free), calcium carbonate and organic carbon. Variation in silicic fraction seems to be controlled by silt, i.e., enrichment from 15 ka BP to 10 ka BP and then constant in Holocene. Below 15 ka BP, the silicic fraction gets depleted compared to the Holocene section with a minimum around 21 ka BP. Clay content remains nearly constant except in the Holocene where it shows an enrichment. Carbonate content of less than 63 micron when computed by subtracting coarse fraction content from the total carbonate suggests that the total carbonates are mainly concentrated in the finer fraction. All these carbonate phases show an inverse relationship with silicic fraction except in Holocene. Below 15 ka BP, CaCO₃ dominates in sediments comprising more than 65%, such an increase is also seen in the coarse fraction. Coarse fraction from these sections contains abundant nodular type aggregates encrusting small forams. This period is marked by a high sedimentation rate comparable to Holocene. These parameters suggest that the productivity and precipitation have increased in the Holocene due to the intensification of the southwest monsoon. During the last glacial maximum and early deglacial period the high sedimentation rate indicates redeposition of the carbonates from the existing carbonate lithofacies situated between Quilon and Cape Comorin probably due to the slope instability.  相似文献   

Dynamics and interaction of organic carbon, turbidity and bacteria in a karst aquifer system   总被引：9，自引：8，他引：9  

Michiel Pronk  Nico Goldscheider  Jakob Zopfi 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(4):473-484

The dynamics of organic carbon (OC), turbidity, faecal indicator bacteria and physicochemical parameters was studied in a karst system near Yverdon, Switzerland. Online measurements and sampling were done at a swallow hole draining an agricultural surface (the input), and two groups of springs (the outputs) that often show bacterial contamination. A fluorescent tracer that was injected into the swallow hole during low-flow conditions first arrived at the springs 10–12 days after injection; the total recovery rate was 29%. Previous tracer tests during high-flow conditions gave shorter travel times. After a major rainfall event, a primary turbidity peak was observed at the springs. It coincides with the rising limb of the hydrograph, indicating remobilisation of autochthonous particles from the aquifer. A secondary turbidity peak occurs several days later, suggesting the arrival of allochthonous particles from the swallow hole. Wider peaks of OC and bacteria were observed simultaneously. Applying methods from molecular microbiology (PCR-DGGE) allowed characterisation of the bacterial communities at the swallow hole and the springs. The results demonstrate that the swallow hole is an important source of groundwater contamination, while its contribution to aquifer recharge is insignificant. OC appears to be a better indicator for bacterial contamination than turbidity.  相似文献   

GIS叠置图层方差分量的极大似然估计   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王新洲  游扬声  刘星  史文中 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2005,30(10):892-896

针对GIS叠置中的同名点,以维希特分布密度为似然函数,提出了各图层方差分量的极大似然估计方法。该方法不依赖残差,不需要迭代就能估计未知参数和方差分量。  相似文献   

基于DMN的高光谱图像分割方法研究     

曹建农  关泽群  李德仁 《遥感学报》2005,9(5):596-603

简述高光谱遥感光谱特征体系(包括光谱曲线特征、光谱变换特征和光谱度量特征3个层面)。研究马尔科夫网的概念和方法,生成基于光谱角(SA)特征度量的DMN,并以DMN为证据对高光谱图像进行分割;研究和实验表明基于SA信息的马尔科夫网可以很好地综合高光谱数据空间特征与光谱特征间的关系,为进一步数据处理提供优化控制(其实质是概率神经网络)。最后提出未来应用和研究方向。  相似文献   

Damaging properties of ground motions and prediction of maximum response of structures based on momentary energy response     

Norio Hori  Norio Inoue 《地震工程与结构动力学》2002,31(9):1657-1679

Dynamic damaging potential of ground motions must be evaluated by the response behaviour of structures, and it is necessary to indicate what properties of ground motions are most appropriate for evaluation. For that purpose, the behaviour of energy input process and hysteretic energy dissipation are investigated in this study. It is found that the momentary input energy that is an index for the intensity of input energy is related to the characteristics of earthquakes such as cyclic or impulsive, and to the response displacement of structures immediately. On the basis of these results, a procedure is proposed to predict inelastic response displacement of structures by corresponding earthquake input energy to structural dissipated damping and hysteretic energy. In this procedure the earthquake response of structures is recognized as an input and dissipation process of energy, and therefore structural properties and damaging properties of ground motions can be taken into account more generally. Lastly, the studies of the pseudodynamic loading test of reinforced concrete structure specimens subjected to ground motions with different time duration are shown. The purpose of this test is to estimate the damaging properties of ground motions and the accuracy of the proposed prediction procedure. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

末次盛冰期百年尺度气候变化的南京石笋记录   总被引：17，自引：10，他引：17       下载免费PDF全文

汪永进  孔兴功  邵晓华  吴江滢 《第四纪研究》2002,22(3):243-251

据年层计数和TIMSU系测年结果,建立了南京汤山葫芦洞YT石笋年际精度时间标尺(18000～14000aB.P.)。除石笋顶部5mm层段外,高分辨率的^δ18O、灰度和年层厚度3种指标在百年尺度上具有相当一致的对应关系,表明这3种指标对气候因素变化响应比较敏感。综合石笋^δ18O和本区古植被资料,估计末次盛冰期和波令暖期年均温分别达7℃和15℃。石笋揭示的末次盛冰期气候可进一步划分为4个阶段:1)18150～16900aB.P.,年均温和洞穴湿度逐步下降;2)16900～16100aB.P.,年均温和洞穴湿度相对稳定,可进一步划分为3个暖峰和两个冷谷;3)16100～15600aB.P.,年均温快速下降,按氧同位素平衡方程计算,其冷谷可能接近于0℃,但洞穴湿度比前期下降幅度并不大;4)15600～14750aB.P.,年均温和洞穴湿度比较稳定。这种气候演化的阶段性和突变性与北大西洋地区气候记录可以对比,反映极地与东亚季风气候受共同的驱动机制支配。从石笋4种指标(^δ18O、^δ13C、灰度和年层厚度)的功率谱图中识别出不同尺度的太阳活动周期成分,其中80aGleissberg周期特别显著,表明末次盛冰期边界条件下太阳活动仍是短尺度气候变化的主要驱动力。  相似文献   

Ordovician Graptolite Rhabdosome Complication and Its Implications on Sea Level Changes     

Wang Chuanshang  Wang Xiaofeng  Chen Xiaohong 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2002,13(3)

A total of four times of rhabdosome complication events, i.e., the lateral branching of graptolite stipes during the Late Middle Ordovician, the secondary branching of graptolite stipes at the earliest Upper Ordovician, the early Qiantangjiangian of Upper Ordovician and the middle Qiantangjiangian, respectively, is discussed in this paper. These events and other adaptation events demonstrate close relationships between a diverse graptolite fauna and sea level changes, and consequently can be employed to study sea level fluctuations. It is safe to conclude that the complication of rhabdosome started at the maximum flooding surface (MFS) and terminated at the beginning of regression.  相似文献   

Seismic moment distribution revisited: II. Moment conservation principle   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Yan Y. Kagan 《Geophysical Journal International》2002,149(3):731-754

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