Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.
Policy relevance
The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions. 相似文献
This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO2e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO2e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO2e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.Policy relevanceIn previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed. 相似文献
The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development. 相似文献
Concern about future anthropogenic warming has lead to demands for information on what might happen to fish and fisheries under various climate-change scenarios. One suggestion has been to use past events as a proxy for what will happen in the future. In this paper a comparison between the responses of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to two major warm periods in the North Atlantic during the 20th century is carried out to determine how reliable the past might be as a predictor of the future. The first warm period began during the 1920s, remained relatively warm through the 1960s, and was limited primarily to the northern regions (>60°N). The second warm period, which again covered the northern regions but also extended farther south (30°N), began in the 1990s and has continued into the present century. During the earlier warm period, the most northern of the cod stocks (West Greenland, Icelandic, and Northeast Arctic cod in the Barents Sea) increased in abundance, individual growth was high, recruitment was strong, and their distribution spread northward. Available plankton data suggest that these cod responses were driven by bottom-up processes. Fishing pressure increased during this period of high cod abundance and the northern cod stocks began to decline, as early as the 1950s in the Barents Sea but during the 1960s elsewhere. Individual growth declined as temperatures cooled and the cod distributions retracted southward. During the warming in the 1990s, the spawning stock biomass of cod in the Barents Sea again increased, recruitment rose, and the stock spread northward, but the individual growth did not improve significantly. Cod off West Greenland also have shown signs of improving recruitment and increasing biomass, albeit they are still very low in comparison to the earlier warming period. The abundance of Icelandic cod, on the other hand, has remained low through the recent warm period and spawning stock biomass and total biomass are at levels near the lowest on record. The different responses of cod to the two warm events, in particular the reduced cod production during the recent warm period, are attributed to the effects of intense fishing pressure and possibly related ecosystem changes. The implications of the results of the comparisons on the development of cod scenarios under future climate change are addressed. 相似文献
Based on a coupled ocean-sea ice model, this study investigates how changes in the mean state of the atmosphere in different CO_2 emission scenarios(RCP 8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6) may affect the sea ice in the Bohai Sea, China,especially in the Liaodong Bay, the largest bay in the Bohai Sea. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, an abrupt change of the atmospheric state happens around 2070. Due to the abrupt change, wintertime sea ice of the Liaodong Bay can be divided into 3 periods: a mild decreasing period(2021–2060), in which the sea ice severity weakens at a nearconstant rate; a rapid decreasing period(2061–2080), in which the sea ice severity drops dramatically; and a stabilized period(2081–2100). During 2021–2060, the dates of first ice are approximately unchanged, suggesting that the onset of sea ice is probably determined by a cold-air event and is not sensitive to the mean state of the atmosphere. The mean and maximum sea ice thickness in the Liaodong Bay is relatively stable before 2060, and then drops rapidly in the following decade. Different from the RCP 8.5 scenario, atmospheric state changes smoothly in the RCP 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios. In the RCP 6.0 scenario, the sea ice severity in the Bohai Sea weakens with time to the end of the twenty-first century. In the RCP 4.5 scenario, the sea ice severity weakens with time until reaching a stable state around the 2070 s. In the RCP 2.6 scenario, the sea ice severity weakens until the2040 s, stabilizes from then, and starts intensifying after the 2080 s. The sea ice condition in the other bays of the Bohai Sea is also discussed under the four CO_2 emissions scenarios. Among atmospheric factors, air temperature is the leading one for the decline of the sea ice extent. Specific humidity also plays an important role in the four scenarios. The surface downward shortwave/longwave radiation and meridional wind only matter in certain scenarios, while effects from the zonal wind and precipitation are negligible. 相似文献
Characteristics of soil erosion change along a long slope in the gentle hilly areas in black soil region in Northeast China are discussed. A simplified slope model based on seg-ments was used to analyze the runoff data and soil erosion data observed between 2003 and 2004 over 10 field plots with different slope length in Heshan Farm, Heilongjiang Province. We found that soil erosion rate over long slopes in the black soil region changed alternatively along the slope and creates alternative zones of intensive erosion and week erosion.The exact place of each zone is different for different rainfall conditions. In a year with less and mild precipitation, rill cannot happen within the top 50 m, while in a year with large and inten-sive precipitation, rill can be formed starting even at 15 m from the top of the slope. 相似文献