Damage Evaluation of Agro-meteorological Hazards in the Maize-Growing Region of Songliao Plain,China: Case Study of Lishu County of Jilin Province     

Zhang  Jiquan  Okada  Norio  Tatano  Hirokazu  Hayakawa  Seiji 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(1):209-232

Agro-meteorological hazards such as drought, waterlogging and cool summer occur with very high frequency and affect maize production and social-economic development in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Moreover, both the frequency of these hazards and loss from them are considered to be increasing with global warming. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards in the maize-growing area of Songliao Plain, taking Lishu county as a case study area based on GIS (Geographic Information System). Crop yield-climate analysis and regression analysis were employed to analyze and quantify relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards. The parameters and model of damage evaluation were presented using weighted comprehensive analysis, and the degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize production was comprehensively evaluated and regionalized. It is shown that from 1949 to 1990, the negative value years of the fluctuation of maize yield due to meteorological hazards accounted for 55% of seasons, of which 14% was caused by drought, 30% by waterlogging, 4% by cool summer and drought, 9% by cool summer and waterlogging, 13% by drought and waterlogging, 30% by drought, waterlogging and cool summer. Studies on the instability and spatial variation of the fluctuations in maize yield in Lishu county showed that the middle plains are stable areas to climatic influence, while southeastern hills and low mountains, the low lands of the plains along the East Liao River and the western plain are unstable areas in terms of areas in maize yield. The synthetic index of the degree of damage to maize of drought, waterlogging and cool summer showed a strong positive correlation with the ratio of the amount damaged to the normal yield of maize. This suggests that this index can be used to evaluate such damage. The degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize in Lishu county shows the regional characteristics, which increase gradually from the center to the west and east, this being almost identical with the spatial distribution of the fluctuation of maize yield due to these hazards. This study can be expected to provide the basis for developing strategies to mitigate agro-meteorological hazards and reducing the losses from them, and adjust the medium and long-term distribution of agricultural activities so as to adapt to environmental changes.  相似文献   

闽东干旱概况及夏季人工增雨作业天气形势分析     

陈德汶  王金萍  林友爱  刘锐志  陈安芳 《气象科技》2005,(Z1)

对闽东干旱的成因和干旱的环流形势进行了探讨,着重分析了夏旱期间人工增雨作业的天气形势以及不同形势、不同云型下的降水情况。结果表明:闽东干旱的形成与大型环流形势、地理因素、土壤植被等有关,平均而言,沿海干旱明显多于内陆山区;夏季发生干旱的机率最大而且强度级别高,西太平洋副热带高压是致旱的主要天气系统;在夏季,台风型(T)、弱流场型(R)是进行人工增雨作业的优势天气型,Cb、Cu、Sc云是开展人工增雨作业比较适合的作业云。这些结果为夏旱期间开展人工增雨作业提供了理论依据。  相似文献   

视电阻率观察中一种抗介质干扰的尝试     

唐宇雄  张茂军  夏坤涛  龙明友  李绍坤  颜晓晔 《四川地震》2005,(4):40-46

埋地金属管线对视电阻率的观测危害甚大。造成观测值大幅改变，跳动，无规律可循。严重时，甚至台站报废，被迫搬迁。通过一些突发事件的启发，结合现场实验，并引证了一些理论计算，笔者摸索出了只须对金属管道作局部微小的改造，就能基本克服其对观测的干扰的方法。该方法在红格台试验半年多来，取得了明显的效果。观测值恢复到安装的水管以前的水平，再无大幅度的跳动。该方法节约经费，简单易行，大大提高了台站在复杂环境中的生存能力。  相似文献   

谈县级地震部门依法管理建设工程抗震设防要求     

武玉柱 《山西地震》2005,(1):27-30

以山西省祁县依法管理工程抗震设防要求为例，论述了强制性审核、确定一般工业、民用建设工程抗震设防要求的重要性及其深远意义。结合工作实际．总结了部分依法行政、规范管理和落实抗震设防要求的经验。  相似文献   

陕西农村房屋抗震设防现状及对策          下载免费PDF全文

王哲  张艳 《地震工程学报》2005,27(4):354-356

陕西省近年来发生的泾阳和石泉两次地震造成了农村房屋不同程度地破坏。通过对这两次地震的现场考察,分析总结了陕西农村房屋抗震设防现状及存在的主要问题,并提出了相应的改进措施及对策建议。  相似文献   

The effect of bed mobility on resistance to overland flow     

Shixiong Hu  Athol D. Abrahams 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2005,30(11):1461-1470

When sediment grains are transported as bed load in overland flow, there is a net transfer of momentum from the flow to the grains. When these grains collide with other grains, whether on the bed or in the flow, streamwise flow velocity decreases and resistance to flow increases. Resistance to flow generated in this manner is termed bed‐load transport resistance. Resistance to flow f over a plane bed may be partitioned into grain resistance f_g and bed‐load transport resistance f_bt. We use the symbols f_btf and f_btm to denote f_bt for flows over fixed beds and over mobile beds, respectively, and we compute the effect of bed mobility on flow resistance f_mob by subtracting f_btf from f_btm. The data for this study come from 54 flume experiments with fixed beds and 38 with mobile beds. On average f_mob is approximately equal to half of f_btm, which is about one‐quarter of f. Hence, f_mob is about one‐tenth of f. Predictive equations are developed for f_btf, f_btm and f_mob using dimensional analysis to identify the relevant independent variables and regression analysis to evaluate the coefficients associated with these variables. Values of f_mob are always positive which implies that mobile beds offer greater resistance to flow than do fixed beds. Evidently bed‐load grains colliding with mobile beds lose more momentum to the bed than do grains colliding with fixed beds. In other words, grain collisions with mobile beds are less elastic than those with fixed beds. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

嵌岩桩嵌岩段侧摩阻力浅析          下载免费PDF全文

王勇刚  李镜培 《探矿工程》2005,32(10):6-9

为求出嵌岩桩嵌岩段侧摩阻力的表达式，假定嵌岩桩桩侧破坏由桩岩接触面上的滑动引起，桩岩接触面的压力由加载前岩土层自重产生的侧压力和由剪切膨胀产生的应力增量组成。用弹性力学的方法求解出桩侧正应力，引入了岩石破坏的Hoek-Brown强度准则，由此求出了嵌岩段桩侧阻力的表达式，并指出了此公式的适用范围。最后结合工程实际进行了对比分析，表明本文方法具有一定的实用性。  相似文献   

Ensemble prediction of regional droughts using climate inputs and the SVM–copula approach          下载免费PDF全文

Poulomi Ganguli  M. Janga Reddy 《水文研究》2014,28(19):4989-5009

In this study, the climate teleconnections with meteorological droughts are analysed and used to develop ensemble drought prediction models using a support vector machine (SVM)–copula approach over Western Rajasthan (India). The meteorological droughts are identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In the analysis of large‐scale climate forcing represented by climate indices such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on regional droughts, it is found that regional droughts exhibits interannual as well as interdecadal variability. On the basis of potential teleconnections between regional droughts and climate indices, SPI‐based drought forecasting models are developed with up to 3 months' lead time. As traditional statistical forecast models are unable to capture nonlinearity and nonstationarity associated with drought forecasts, a machine learning technique, namely, support vector regression (SVR), is adopted to forecast the drought index, and the copula method is used to model the joint distribution of observed and predicted drought index. The copula‐based conditional distribution of an observed drought index conditioned on predicted drought index is utilized to simulate ensembles of drought forecasts. Two variants of drought forecast models are developed, namely a single model for all the periods in a year and separate models for each of the four seasons in a year. The performance of developed models is validated for predicting drought time series for 10 years' data. Improvement in ensemble prediction of drought indices is observed for combined seasonal model over the single model without seasonal partitions. The results show that the proposed SVM–copula approach improves the drought prediction capability and provides estimation of uncertainty associated with drought predictions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Likely effects of climate change on groundwater availability in a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain          下载免费PDF全文

Hassane Moutahir  Pau Bellot  Robert Monjo  Juan Bellot  Miguel Garcia  Issam Touhami 《水文研究》2017,31(1):161-176

Groundwater resources are typically the main fresh water source in arid and semi‐arid regions. Natural recharge of aquifers is mainly based on precipitation; however, only heavy precipitation events (HPEs) are expected to produce appreciable aquifer recharge in these environments. In this work, we used daily precipitation and monthly water level time series from different locations over a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain to identify the critical threshold value to define HPEs that lead to appreciable aquifer recharge in this region. Wavelet and trend analyses were used to study the changes in the temporal distribution of the chosen HPEs (≥20 mm day^?1) over the observed period 1953–2012 and its projected evolution by using 18 downscaled climate projections over the projected period 2040–2099. The used precipitation time series were grouped in 10 clusters according to similarities between them assessed by using Pearson correlations. Results showed that the critical HPE threshold for the study area is 20 mm day^?1. Wavelet analysis showed that observed significant seasonal and annual peaks in global wavelet spectrum in the first sub‐period (1953–1982) are no longer significant in the second sub‐period (1983–2012) in the major part of the ten clusters. This change is because of the reduction of the mean HPEs number, which showed a negative trend over the observed period in nine clusters and was significant in five of them. However, the mean size of HPEs showed a positive trend in six clusters. A similar tendency of change is expected over the projected period. The expected reduction of the mean HPEs number is two times higher under the high climate scenario (RCP8.5) than under the moderate scenario (RCP4.5). The mean size of these events is expected to increase under the two scenarios. The groundwater availability will be affected by the reduction of HPE number which will increase the length of no aquifer recharge periods (NARP) accentuating the groundwater drought in the region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use          下载免费PDF全文

Mingwei Ma  Liliang Ren  Fei Yuan  Shanhu Jiang  Yi Liu  Hao Kong  Luyan Gong 《水文研究》2014,28(23):5645-5661

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献