The long-term trend of Bohai Sea ice in different emission scenarios     

Donglin Guo  Rui Li  Peng Zhao 《海洋学报(英文版)》2021,40(7):100-118

Based on a coupled ocean-sea ice model, this study investigates how changes in the mean state of the atmosphere in different CO_2 emission scenarios(RCP 8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6) may affect the sea ice in the Bohai Sea, China,especially in the Liaodong Bay, the largest bay in the Bohai Sea. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, an abrupt change of the atmospheric state happens around 2070. Due to the abrupt change, wintertime sea ice of the Liaodong Bay can be divided into 3 periods: a mild decreasing period(2021–2060), in which the sea ice severity weakens at a nearconstant rate; a rapid decreasing period(2061–2080), in which the sea ice severity drops dramatically; and a stabilized period(2081–2100). During 2021–2060, the dates of first ice are approximately unchanged, suggesting that the onset of sea ice is probably determined by a cold-air event and is not sensitive to the mean state of the atmosphere. The mean and maximum sea ice thickness in the Liaodong Bay is relatively stable before 2060, and then drops rapidly in the following decade. Different from the RCP 8.5 scenario, atmospheric state changes smoothly in the RCP 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios. In the RCP 6.0 scenario, the sea ice severity in the Bohai Sea weakens with time to the end of the twenty-first century. In the RCP 4.5 scenario, the sea ice severity weakens with time until reaching a stable state around the 2070 s. In the RCP 2.6 scenario, the sea ice severity weakens until the2040 s, stabilizes from then, and starts intensifying after the 2080 s. The sea ice condition in the other bays of the Bohai Sea is also discussed under the four CO_2 emissions scenarios. Among atmospheric factors, air temperature is the leading one for the decline of the sea ice extent. Specific humidity also plays an important role in the four scenarios. The surface downward shortwave/longwave radiation and meridional wind only matter in certain scenarios, while effects from the zonal wind and precipitation are negligible.  相似文献   

VTI介质qP波方程高精度有限差分算子   总被引：10，自引：4，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

吴国忱  梁锴 《地球物理学进展》2007,22(3):896-904

波动方程有限差分法是一种使用广泛的地震波数值模拟方法.但是有限差分法本身固有存在着数值频散问题,会降低地震波场模拟的精度与分辨率.为了克服常规有限差分算子的数值频散,本文针对VTI介质地震波数值模拟问题,构造了频率-空间域qP波波动方程高精度有限差分优化算子,根据最优化理论中高斯-牛顿法确定了高精度有限差分算子的优化系数.利用常规差分算子和高精度优化差分算子对归一化相速度的频散关系精度进行了对比分析,并对均匀各向同性介质和均匀VTI介质中的qP波地震波场进行了有限差分数值模拟,通过频散关系精度分析和波场数值模拟结果表明：有限差分优化算子具有较高的波场数值模拟精度,有效压制了传统有限差分算子数值模拟中的数值频散现象,提高了有限差分算子精度,为VTI介质频率-空间域qP波正演模拟奠定了基础.  相似文献   

潮流界以下河段航道整治水位确定方法研究——以长江江阴以下河段为例     

徐元  贾雨少 《海洋工程》2018,36(2):64-72

在总结分析现有整治水位确定方法的基础上,根据潮流界以下河段的水沙运动特性,本文提出一种基于输沙能力的航道整治水位确定方法。考虑上游来水、下游潮汐为独立事件,统计潮流界以下河段上游来水、下游潮汐不同等级组合出现的频率,采用数学模型计算相应组合下河段沿程的潮位、流速过程,以流速四次方代表水流的输沙能力,统计不同潮位等级对应的综合净输沙能力,确定最大综合净输沙能力对应的水位为(最优)航道整治水位。以长江下游白茆沙水道和福姜沙水道为例,计算了所在河段的航道整治水位,并探讨了起动流速对整治水位计算的影响和最高整治水位概念对工程的意义。  相似文献   

Reconstruction of eddies by assimilating satellite altimeter data into Princeton Ocean Model   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

YIN Xunqiang  QIAO Fangli  XIA Changshui  L&#; Xin''gang  YANG Yongzeng 《海洋学报(英文版)》2010,29(1):1-11

An optimal interpolation assimilation model for satellite altimetry data is developed based on Princeton Ocean Model (POM), which is applied in a quasi-global domain, by the method of isotropic correlation between sea level anomaly (SLA) and sea temperature anomaly. The perfor- mance of this assimilation model is validated by the modeled results of SLA and the current patterns. Comparisons between modeling and satellite data show that both the magnitudes and distribution patterns of the simulated SLA are improved by assimilation. The most signiˉcant improvement is that meso-scale systems, e.g., eddies, are well reconstructed. The evolution of an eddy located in the northwest Paciˉc Ocean is traced by using the assimilation model. Model results show that during three months the eddy migrated southwestward for about 6 degrees before merging into the Kuroshio. The three dimensional structure of this eddy on 12 August 2001 is further analyzed. The strength of this warm, cyclonic eddy decreases with the increase of depth. The eddy shows di?erent horizontal patterns at di?erent layers, and the SLA and temperature ˉelds agree with each other well. This study suggests that this kind of data assimilation is economic and reliable for eddy reconstruction, and can be used as a promising technique in further studies of ocean eddies as well as other ˉne circulation structures.  相似文献   

混合被动控制优化设计及性能研究     

宗刚  楼梦麟 《地震工程与工程振动》2007,27(4):127-132

本文将调谐液体阻尼器(TLD)和黏弹性阻尼器(VED)同时作用于结构,构成混合被动控制系统。通过对两类阻尼器分别进行优化设计并考虑两者间的相互影响,在充分发挥两者各自优良控制性能的同时,克服了VED大量使用导致控制系统整体造价过高的问题。算例分析表明,混合控制可以得到令人满意的整体减震效果,同时大大节约了VED用量,提高了控制系统的综合经济性能。  相似文献   

干旱区生态学研究中若干问题的思考   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

贾宝全 《干旱区地理》2007,30(1):1-6

在分析目前干旱区生态学研究存在的主要问题的基础上,对未来干旱区生态学研究的核心、尺度和研究手段选择等问题进行了探讨,最后就干旱区生态学研究几个值得关注的研究领域进行了阐述。作者认为,干旱区生态学研究的核心应该是绿洲,从管理实践的角度,干旱区的生态学研究尺度应该是湖泊流域,而非以前被广泛采纳的河流流域。在干旱区生态学研究的手段上,随着高清晰度商业化遥感卫星的应用,结合过去的传统方法,与GIS和RS相结合的遥感手段应该是今后生态学研究所依赖的主要手段。而早春短命植物层片与短命动物研究、干旱区的城市森林建设、干旱区民族生态学与人地关系研究、生态用水的深化研究、绿洲景观生态过程及其规划实践研究等,应该是在不偏废过去研究工作的基础上,值得在未来关注的研究领域。  相似文献   

Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate     

Xing Ma  Jianchu Xu  Meine van Noordwijk 《水文研究》2010,24(11):1379-1390

Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

以可区分度量为准则进行变形监测网的优化设计     

陈永奇  邓康伟 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1993,(4)

本文采用变形模型可区分度量的概念进行监测网的优化设计。在算法上采用计算机模拟逐一更新的计算过程。为了克服常规模拟法需要人工干预的缺点,引进了一些规则,利用计算机的判断和推理过程,达到了自动设计的目的。作为示范例子,文中最后还给出了一个模拟监测网的设计结果。  相似文献   

航摄底片信息容量的确定     

宣家斌  S.A.Hempenius 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1986,(4)

为了定量地分析航摄底片的信息容量,本文在影象数字化的基础上,从理论上分析信息容量的估算公式,监重点研究用“比特分割”的方法确定其有效的比特数。  相似文献   

土木工程结构的双层多重调谐质量阻尼器控制策略   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

李春祥 《地震工程与工程振动》2005,25(1):113-119

为能得到用尽可能少的调谐质量阻尼器(TMD)组成有效性和鲁棒性高的多重调谐质量阻尼器控制系统，本文提出了一种适用于土木工程结构的新控制策略——双层多重调谐质量阻尼器(DMT—MD)。使用定义的优化目标函数，评价了双层多重调谐质量阻尼器(DMTMD)的控制性能。数值结果表明，双层多重调谐质量阻尼器(DMTMD)比多重凋谐质量阻尼器(MTMD)具有更好的有效性和对频率调谐的鲁棒性。DMTMD比双重调谐质量阻尼器(DTMD)具有更好的有效性，而DMTMD和DT—MD对频率调谐的鲁棒性近似相同。因此，双层多重调谐质量阻尼器是一种先进的结构控制策略。  相似文献