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采用ECMWF数值预报产品资料,首先用PP法和MOS方法建立溪洛渡水电站坝区三坪站气温预报逐步回归方程,寻找消空(漏)指标进行预报后处理,然后根据000~168时效的ECMWF数值预报产品资料制作未来24~144 h三坪站的最高、最低、平均气温预报。并研制出能自动运行的预报业务系统。2011年业务运行效果检验评估表明:系统预报效果较稳定,6 d平均、最高、最低气温平均预报准确率分别为70.8%、62.7%和76.0%,在水电气象预报服务中短期气温预报实时业务中有较好的指导作用。平均、最高、最低气温准确率随着预报时效的延长效果降低,平均气温和最低气温比最高气温的预报准确率高。预报方法对制作单站气温预报是可行的。 相似文献
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Emanuela Mattioli Bernard Pittet Laurent Petitpierre Samuel Mailliot 《Global and Planetary Change》2009,65(3-4):134-145
In this account we present estimates of nannofossil fluxes in four sections and one borehole all belonging to the Early Jurassic western Tethys. This study aims to map the distribution of pelagic carbonate production across the Early Toarcian anoxic event (T-OAE), and to understand which environmental parameters did control such production. Our results indicate important changes in carbonate production by nannoplankton occurring within the western Tethys and its variations through time. Nannofossil fluxes (specimens per m2 per year) are extremely low during the T-OAE in all the studied settings. Higher fluxes are encountered in the westernmost part of the Tethys Ocean before the T-OAE, whilst pelagic carbonate production shifted towards the northern margin of the Tethys after the recovery from anoxic conditions. The dramatic decrease in nannoplankton production during the T-OAE has been interpreted in previous works as a biocalcification crisis related to high pCO2 in the atmosphere/hydrosphere system. Although a high pCO2 may have lowered the carbonate saturation state of Early Jurassic oceans and finally hampered biocalcification, we speculate that the most important effects of CO2 increase were indirect, and affected pelagic producers via changes on climate and sea-level. Namely, it seems that precipitation/evaporation budgets and continental runoff that controlled nutrient levels and salinity in surface oceanic waters were important factors for pelagic biocalcifiers. 相似文献
997.
基于六杆机构的望远镜副镜支承的分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
建立了一种新型的6-PSS并联六杆机构的虚拟样机模型,重点分析了望远镜高度角等因素对杆力的影响,这些因素是六杆机构用于望远镜特别需要考虑的,总结出高度角从0°变化到90°,杆力的拉压状态变化次数比较少、杆所承受的最大力比较小的结构参数设置方法. 相似文献
998.
Chemical Characteristics of Carbonaceous Aerosols During Dust Storms over Xi'an in China 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Characterization of carbonaceous aerosols including CC (carbonate carbon), OC (organic carbon), and EC (elemental carbon) were investigated at Xi'an, China, near Asian dust source regions in spring 2002. OC varied between 8.2 and 63.7μgm^- 3, while EC ranged between 2.4 and 17.2 μ m^-3 during the observation period. OC variations followed a similar pattern to EC and the correlation coefficient between OC and EC is 0.89 (n=31). The average percentage of total carbon (TC, sum of CC, OC, and EC) in PM2.5 during dust storm (DS) events was 13.6%, which is lower than that during non-dust storm (NDS) periods (22.7%). CC, OC, and EC accounted for 12.9%, 70.7%, and 16.4% of TC during DS events, respectively. The average ratio of OC/EC was 5.0 in DS events and 3.3 in NDS periods. The OC-EC correlation (R^2=0.76, n=6) was good in DS events, while it was stronger (R^2=0.90, n=25) in NDS periods. The percentage of watersoluble OC (WSOC) in TC accounted for 15.7%, and varied between 13.3% and 22.3% during DS events. The distribution of eight carbon fractions indicated that local emissions such as motor vehicle exhaust were the dominant contributors to carbonaceous particles. During DS events, soil dust dominated the chemical composition, contributing 69% to the PM2.5 mass, followed by organic matter (12.8%), sulfate (4%), EC (2.2%), and chloride (1.6%). Consequently, CC was mainly entrained by Asian dust. However, even in the atmosphere near Asian dust source regions, OC and EC in atmospheric dust were controlled by local emission rather titan the transport of Asian dust. 相似文献
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1000.
前人的观点认为,早奥陶世的塔里木盆地是一个统一的“大碳酸盐岩台地”,斜坡相呈马蹄形发育在古城—轮南一线。通过对塔中地区满加1井—塔中29井一线及相邻地区下—中奥陶统的岩石学、沉积学和地震地层学等方面的研究,发现这一线的下奥陶统主要由一套较深水的斜坡及海槽沉积构成,其地层厚度和地震反射特征也明显与周边地区不同,认为塔中及相邻地区在早奥陶世期间已经从早期的塔里木“大碳酸盐台地”中分化独立出来,分裂成塔中—巴楚台地、古城台地、塘南台地三块孤立台地,以塔北隔海相望。各孤立台地周缘发育台地边缘高能礁滩沉积体,呈条带状展布,主要由中高能粒屑滩组成;向内相变为台地相,发育台内滩、台内洼地、滩间海等亚相;向外进入较深水的斜坡—海槽沉积区,从而确立了塔中及相邻地区早奥陶世新的区域沉积格局。新沉积格局的确立,对于确立下奥陶统新的有利勘探区带具有重要的理论和现实意义,大大提升了研究区下奥陶统的油气勘探战略地位。 相似文献