STUDY ON MIXED MODEL OF NEURAL NETWORK FOR FARMLAND FLOOD/DROUGHT PREDICTION   总被引：18，自引：0，他引：18  

金龙  罗莹  郭光  林振山 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1997,(3)

The paper concerns a flood/drought prediction model involving the continuation of time seriesof a predictand and the physical factors influencing the change of predictand.Attempt is made toconstruct the model by the neural network scheme for the nonlinear mapping relation based onmulti-input and single output.The model is found of steadily higher predictive accuracy by testingthe output from one and multiple stepwise predictions against observations and comparing theresults to those from a traditional statistical model.  相似文献   

塔里木盆地新生代地质地貌特征及其演化     

李江海  吴桐雯  雷雨婷 《高校地质学报》1997,25(3):466

塔里木盆地是亚洲大陆腹地独特的巨型地质地貌单元，是研究新生代地球系统的天然实验室。新生代以来，它经历 了古近纪海湾、新近纪湖泊—三角洲平原、河流—湖泊—沙漠、沙漠—河流的地质演化过程，古地理格局变化的主要因素 是远程碰撞造山作用，造成盆地的封闭、气候干旱。古近纪以来，海湾盆地西低东高，构造挤压造成周缘山脉隆升和盆地 逐渐封闭，这是盆地演化最主要的动力因素。新近纪南高北低，随着青藏高原隆升，周围山脉持续隆升，早先形成的河湖 等地质地貌单元不断被周边山脉所封闭，形成塔里木盆地，发育大湖泊。第四纪以来，盆地西高东低，经历了最快速的地 球系统演化，形成中国较大的内流水系以及最大沙漠。内、外动力的耦合作用及其相互作用，控制了塔里木盆地新生代地 球系统演化，塔里木盆地周缘新构造活跃，在巨型盆地内发育了河流、湖泊、沙漠、戈壁、雅丹、干盐湖等多种第四纪的 地貌类型。不同地质因素时空上相互作用，塑造着巨型盆地地球系统演化，塔里木盆地展示了极干旱地区地球系统第四纪 快速的演化过程。  相似文献   

A model for the Am (Km) planetary geomagnetic activity index and application to prediction     

Christian Francq  Michel Menvielle 《Geophysical Journal International》1996,125(3):729-746

We studied the existence of dynamical stochastic relations in the evolution of the am index. A first analysis of the autocorrelation functions showed evidence of several seasonalities. We first used linear (ARMA) models, and it was found that these do not account for the whole internal dynamics of the data series. We then used various non-linear models to provide a better fit to reality. The forecast performances of the non-linear models are not significantly different from those of the linear model. We give a tentative explanation for the failure of the non-linear predictions. Finally, ARCH models were used in order to take into account the fact that the confidence interval for the predicted value depends on past observations.  相似文献   

A methodology for drought preparedness     

Donald A. Wilhite 《Natural Hazards》1996,13(3):229-252

Drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate that affects virtually all countries to some degree. The number of drought-induced natural disasters has grown significantly since the 1960s, largely as a result of increasing vulnerability to extended periods of precipitation deficiency rather than because of an increase in the frequency of meteorological droughts. This increase in drought-induced natural disasters has resulted in a considerable growth of interest in drought mitigation and preparedness worldwide. The purpose of a national preparedness plan is to reduce societal vulnerability to drought through the adoption of preventive, anticipatory policies and programs. This paper describes a ten-step planning process that nations can follow to develop a drought preparedness plan. This process, originally developed in 1987, has been the basis of discussions at training seminars on drought preparedness for developing nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It has also been adopted, with appropriate modifications, by state or provincial governments and by municipalities. The process is intended to be flexible so that governments can add, delete, or modify the suggested steps, as necessary.Published as Paper No. 10946, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Research Division. The work reported here was conducted under Nebraska Agricultural Research Division Project 27-007. This material is based in part upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant ATM-8704050.  相似文献   

长江中下游旱涝中期预报方法及其业务应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

金荣花  李月安  晁淑懿  任金声 《气象》2004,30(12):47-52

介绍了双层多因子综合相似的长江中下游旱涝中期预报模型。该模型引入了具有明确动力学和热力学意义的地转西风动量经向输送和经向温度梯度诊断量，同时强调了西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游夏季降水的关键作用，并考虑了对流层中、低层500hPa高度和850hPa温度的大尺度环流背景场。与过去业务应用的单层相似预报模型相比较，不仅物理意义和天气学含义明确，而且更符合对具有复杂动力和热力机制的降水预报的考虑。5年的预报试验和业务应用结果表明，该方法对长江中下游地区旱涝的中期趋势预报有较好的预报能力。  相似文献   

应用"极值剔除"和"逐步消空"法建立太原机场11月份辐射大雾预报指标集          下载免费PDF全文

管翔  栗毅 《山西气象》2004,(2):8-10

本文介绍了利用“极值剔除”和“逐步消空”方法建立太原机场11月份辐射大雾预报指标集的具体过程，并对得出的预报指标进行回报检验，以证实其在业务中的切实可行性。  相似文献   

鹤壁市春旱动态监测及分析     

王军王福州  周官辉郭魁英秦成福  杜滨鹤 《河南气象》2004,(1):17-18

利用鹤壁市淇县1971～2000年降水、底墒、蒸发资料，建立了适用于对春旱进行实时业务监测的动态模型；根据干旱指数大小确定春旱等级，并通过实例对比分析证实干旱指数在分析干旱动态演变过程中的作用。  相似文献   

冬小麦遥感冠层温度监测土壤含水量的试验研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

刘云  宇振荣  孙丹峰  Driessen P.M  刘云慧  王纯枝 《水科学进展》2004,15(3):352-356

在冬小麦主要生育期(2002年4月初到5月底),对不灌溉的冬小麦测定了冠层温度、地温、气温以及土壤含水量,计算了冠气温差且分析了冠层温度和冠气温差与不同土层厚度的土壤含水量相关关系。结果表明:14:00的冠层温度能较好地反映20cm土层的土壤含水量变化,但与其它各土层相关性有较大的波动性;14:00的冠气温差能较好地反映40cm以上土层的土壤含水量变化,二者的相关性很高,在20cm、40cm土层,两者相关系数R2分别为0.98866、0.99389,这为用区域遥感数据反演主要生育期冬小麦的冠气温差进而监测区域40cm土壤含水量提供了实验性的依据;拔节期和灌浆期,用14:00冠气温差来拟合各土壤层的土壤含水量有较高的精度,从而为用区域遥感数据监测区域土壤含水量提供了经验性的模型。  相似文献   

Damage Evaluation of Agro-meteorological Hazards in the Maize-Growing Region of Songliao Plain,China: Case Study of Lishu County of Jilin Province     

Zhang  Jiquan  Okada  Norio  Tatano  Hirokazu  Hayakawa  Seiji 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(1):209-232

Agro-meteorological hazards such as drought, waterlogging and cool summer occur with very high frequency and affect maize production and social-economic development in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Moreover, both the frequency of these hazards and loss from them are considered to be increasing with global warming. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards in the maize-growing area of Songliao Plain, taking Lishu county as a case study area based on GIS (Geographic Information System). Crop yield-climate analysis and regression analysis were employed to analyze and quantify relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards. The parameters and model of damage evaluation were presented using weighted comprehensive analysis, and the degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize production was comprehensively evaluated and regionalized. It is shown that from 1949 to 1990, the negative value years of the fluctuation of maize yield due to meteorological hazards accounted for 55% of seasons, of which 14% was caused by drought, 30% by waterlogging, 4% by cool summer and drought, 9% by cool summer and waterlogging, 13% by drought and waterlogging, 30% by drought, waterlogging and cool summer. Studies on the instability and spatial variation of the fluctuations in maize yield in Lishu county showed that the middle plains are stable areas to climatic influence, while southeastern hills and low mountains, the low lands of the plains along the East Liao River and the western plain are unstable areas in terms of areas in maize yield. The synthetic index of the degree of damage to maize of drought, waterlogging and cool summer showed a strong positive correlation with the ratio of the amount damaged to the normal yield of maize. This suggests that this index can be used to evaluate such damage. The degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize in Lishu county shows the regional characteristics, which increase gradually from the center to the west and east, this being almost identical with the spatial distribution of the fluctuation of maize yield due to these hazards. This study can be expected to provide the basis for developing strategies to mitigate agro-meteorological hazards and reducing the losses from them, and adjust the medium and long-term distribution of agricultural activities so as to adapt to environmental changes.  相似文献   

2004年陕西春季沙尘天气环流特征分析          下载免费PDF全文

侯明全  王旭仙 《山西气象》2005,(2):1-4

应用我们已经建立的《阳泉市短期冰雹预报系统》分析预报阳泉市2004年6月份出现的连续冰雹天气,特别是该系统中的指标叠加方法,效果较好。  相似文献