新疆主要城市的采暖与制冷度日数(Ⅱ)——近45年来的变化趋势   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

姜逢清  胡汝骥  李珍 《干旱区地理》2007,30(5):629-636

利用非参数检验法(MK检验)和简单线性回归法检测了1959-2004年近45年来新疆16个主要城市年和季采暖与制冷度日数时间序列的单调趋势,并分析了其变化特征。结果表明,由于受全球气候变暖,尤其是冬季变暖的影响,近45年来,新疆主要城市冬季和年采暖度日数普遍存在减少趋势,其中除库车县城趋势不明显外,其它15个城市的减少趋势都非常显著,年序列的线性倾向率在-25.11~-153.99℃/10 a的范围内,平均值为-77.9℃/10 a;绝大部分城市的夏季和年制冷度日数存在增加的趋势,年序列的线性倾向率处于-11.9~17.1℃/10 a之间,平均为4.3℃/10 a。冬季和年采暖度日数普遍减少必将有助于新疆采暖能源消耗量的降低,减轻城市煤烟型大气污染,进而促进新疆环境与社会健康可持续发展。  相似文献   

夏季亚澳季风区两支越赤道气流年(代)际变化及其与夏季风活动的联系   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

丛菁  管兆勇  王黎娟 《南京气象学院学报》2007,30(6):779-785

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了夏季索马里急流和105°E越赤道气流变化的异同及它们与亚洲夏季风的关系.结果表明:两者强度的年际变化、年代际变化、突变时间及周期都明显不同;两者的年际变化在某些年代显示出很强的负相关关系;索马里急流与亚洲夏季风的南亚夏季风、东亚副热带夏季风和南海夏季风有很好的相关关系,而105°E越赤道气流仅与南海夏季风关系密切;两支越赤道气流对亚洲夏季风系统各成员的影响存在明显差异.  相似文献   

Common oscillatory modes in geomagnetic activity, NAO index and surface air temperature records     

Milan Palu&#x;  Dagmar Novotn 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2007,69(17-18):2405

Detection and extraction of quasi-oscillatory dynamical modes from instrumental records of geophysical data became a useful tool in analyzing variability of observed phenomena reflected in complex, multivariate geophysical signals. Using the extension of the Monte Carlo singular system analysis (MC SSA), based on evaluating and testing regularity of dynamics of the SSA modes against the colored noise null hypothesis, we demonstrate detection of oscillatory modes with period of about 96 months in the long-term records of aa index as well as in the records of surface air temperature from several mid-latitude European locations and in the North Atlantic Oscillation index.  相似文献   

The Preferred Structure of the Interannual Indian Monsoon Variability     

David M. Straus  V. Krishnamurthy 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1717-1732

The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the June-Sept. mean, rotational horizontal wind at 850 hPa and 200 hPa (over the region 12.5°S–42.5°N, 50°E–100°E) from 56 years (1948–2003) of reanalysis (from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction) shows strong anti-cyclonic circulation at upper levels, strong Indian Ocean cross-equatorial flow and on-shore flow over western India at lower levels . The associated principal component (PC) is correlated at the 0.75 level with the seasonal mean observed Indian Monsoon rainfall (IMR). Composite differences of vertically integrated divergence (surface to 800 hPa) and vorticity (surface to 500 hPa) between ``strong' years (PC-1 exceeds one standard deviation σ) and ``weak' years (PC-1 less than − σ) suggest increased rising motion and storminess over the Bay of Bengal and central India. Composite difference maps of station rainfall from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) between strong years and normal years (weak years and normal years) are statistically significant over central India, with strong (weak) years associated with increased (decreased) precipitation. In both cases the maps of rainfall anomalies are of one sign throughout India. The correlation of PC-1 with global seasonal mean SST is strong and negative over the eastern equatorial Pacific, but positive in a surrounding horse-shoe like region. Significant negative correlation occurs in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The lag/lead correlation between the NINO3 SST index and PC-1 is similar to but stronger than the NINO3/IMR correlation. Modest (but significant) negative correlation is seen when NINO3 leads PC-1 (or IMR) by one-two months. Strong negative correlation is seen when PC-1 (or IMR) leads NINO3. The projections of running five-day means of horizontal rotational winds at 850 and 200 hPa onto EOF-1 (after removing the seasonal mean for each year) were pooled for strong, normal and weak years. The strong and normal year probability distribution functions (pdfs) are nearly indistinguishable, but the weak year pdf has more weight for moderate negative values and in both extreme tails and shows some hint of bi-modality.  相似文献   

Long-Term Variability Of The Optical Emission Lines In The Nuclear Spectrum Of The Seyfert Galaxy Ngc 3227     

I.?PronikEmail author  L.?Metik 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,299(3):245-261

Fifty-three spectrograms in the optical region (3700–7300 Å) with the spectral resolution ～8 Å have been obtained for the Seyfert nucleus of the galaxy NGC 3227 with the 6-m telescope on January 1977, while the nucleus was in the historically important epoch of its extreme maximum brightness. Width of the slit was 1″, length of the box during the spectra measurements was 1.5″. Data obtained by us and those compiled from literature showed that profiles of the Balmer lines H_α, H_β and H_γ are different, evidencing that the gas emitting these lines is highly self-absorbed. It was shown that narrow components of the profiles revealed by Rubin and Ford kept their positions (radial velocities) over 25 years. The components showed intensity variations compared to the central one from minimum to maximum of the nucleus brightness. The same variations were observed by us earlier in the emission line profiles of the NGC 7469 nucleus spectrum. Narrow profile components can reflect long-lived flows or jets in the broad line region (BLR). Obtained facts evidenced that long-lived gas streams and flows causing narrow components of broad line profiles presented not only when BLR of accretion disc is strong but when BLR of accretion disc declined. Blue bump at radial velocity of ?5000 km/s in H_γ profile was revealed in spectra of high states of the nucleus, which disappeared in low state. One of the interpretations of this event can be in the framework of a model of one-sided or two-sided gas ejection during the high state of the nucleus, positive radial velocities of which being screened out by a circumnuclear disk.  相似文献   

Solar variability and the levels of Lake Victoria,East Africa,during the last millenium   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. Curt?StagerEmail author  David?Ryves  Brian F.?Cumming  L. David?Meeker  Juerg?Beer 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2005,33(2):243-251

A new diatom series with 1–6 year resolution from Lake Victoria, East Africa, shows that lake level minima occurred ca. 820–760, 680–660, 640–620, 370–340, and 220–150 calendar years BP. Inferred lake levels were exceptionally high during most of the Little Ice Age (ca. 600–200 calendar years BP). Synchrony between East African high lake levels and prolonged sunspot minima during much of the last millenium may reflect solar variabilitys effects on tropical rainfall, but those relationships reversed sign ca. 200 years ago. Historical records also show that Victoria lake levels rose during every peak of the ca. 11-year sunspot cycle since the late 19th century. These findings suggest that, if these apparent tropical sun–climate associations during the last millenium were real, then they were subject to abrupt sign reversals.Electronic Supplementary Material to this article is available at .  相似文献   

“96.1”暴雪期中尺度切变线发生发展的动力诊断：Ⅰ：涡度和涡度变率 …   总被引：47，自引：20，他引：27  

张小玲  程麟生 《高原气象》2000,19(3):285-294

利用引入三相云显式降水方案后改进和发展的中尺度模式（ＭＭ４）模拟输出资料,对“９６．１”高原暴雪切变线发生、发展的结构进行了运动学和动力学诊断。涡度场演变指出,高原上局地涡度中心和涡度带的生成和发展不仅与暴雪切变线的形成和发展密切相关,而且有预测切变线生成的先兆意义;涡度场、散度场、垂直速度场当位温场的剖面结构诊断表明,运动场的热力场的相互配置与耦合关系极有得暴雪切变线及暴雪形成与维持;涡度变率诊  相似文献   

含水层渗透系数空间变异性对地下水数值模拟的影响   总被引：6，自引：5，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

陈彦  吴吉春 《水科学进展》2005,16(4):482-487

地下水数值模拟是目前定量研究地下水水量和水质的重要手段。使用基于随机理论的MonteCarlo方法来进行地下水数值模拟。这种方法能较好地考虑水文地质参数的空间变异性。主要将MonteCarlo方法和确定性模型模拟方法的模拟结果在渗透系数场、水头场、速度场和浓度场等方面进行了比较。结果表明:在模拟三维非均质含水层中的溶质运移问题时,充分考虑了含水层渗透系数空间变异性的MonteCarlo法比确定性方法更为有效,模拟精度提高了很多,且对模拟误差及误差来源有合理的数学解释。  相似文献   

THE 'LITTLE ICE AGE': RE-EVALUATION OF AN EVOLVING CONCEPT   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

JOHN A. MATTHEWS  KEITH R. BRIFFA 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2005,87(1):17-36

ABSTRACT. This review focuses on the development of the ‘Little Ice Age’ as a glaciological and climatic concept, and evaluates its current usefulness in the light of new data on the glacier and climatic variations of the last millennium and of the Holocene. ‘Little Ice Age’ glacierization occurred over about 650 years and can be defined most precisely in the European Alps (c. AD 1300–1950) when extended glaciers were larger than before or since. ‘Little Ice Age’ climate is defined as a shorter time interval of about 330 years (c. AD 1570–1900) when Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures (land areas north of 20°N) fell significantly below the AD 1961–1990 mean. This climatic definition overlaps the times when the Alpine glaciers attained their latest two highstands (AD 1650 and 1850). It is emphasized, however, that ‘Little Ice Age’ glacierization was highly dependent on winter precipitation and that ‘Little Ice Age’ climate was not simply a matter of summer temperatures. Both the glacier‐centred and the climate‐centred concepts necessarily encompass considerable spatial and temporal variability, which are investigated using maps of mean summer temperature variations over the Northern Hemisphere at 30‐year intervals from AD 1571 to 1900. ‘Little Ice Age’‐type events occurred earlier in the Holocene as exemplified by at least seven glacier expansion episodes that have been identified in southern Norway. Such events provide a broader context and renewed relevance for the ‘Little Ice Age’, which may be viewed as a ‘modern analogue’ for the earlier events; and the likelihood that similar events will occur in the future has implications for climatic change in the twenty‐first century. It is concluded that the concept of a ‘Little Ice Age’ will remain useful only by (1) continuing to incorporate the temporal and spatial complexities of glacier and climatic variations as they become better known, and (2) by reflecting improved understanding of the Earth‐atmosphere‐ocean system and its forcing factors through the interaction of palaeoclimatic reconstruction with climate modelling.  相似文献   

土性参数的随机场模型及桩体沉降变异特性分析   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4  

黄广龙  龚晓南  肖溟 《岩土力学》2000,21(4):311-315

考虑土体参数的空间变异性,建立了土体变形模量的随机场模型并推导了方差拆减系数计算公式,研究了竖向和径向自相关距离对桩体沉降变异性的影响。  相似文献