河流污染带的随机模拟方法   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

黄平  陈铣成 《水文》1995,(3):8-12

根据随机理论，推导了一个描述污染带变化的概率模型，并采用Ｍｏｎｔｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ抽样法对其求数值解。该随机模型的解是一个随机物，实例计算表明，它的解能够反映任一计算点的浓度变化趋势及范围，并能够给浓度等值线附加上概率的意义，表现了在不确定因素的影响下，污染带随机变化的情况。  相似文献   

气象场相关结构对EOFs展开稳定性的影响   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

丁裕国  江志红 《气象学报》1993,51(4):448-456

本文从矩阵扰动理论出发,提出利用矩阵的范数(norm)作为度量气象场随机扰动的稳定性指标,并由此间接推估EOFs展开的稳定性。经理论论证、数值试验和实例计算表明,气象场的相关性越好,达到稳定相关结构所需样本越小,由此得到的EOFs稳定性也越好,反之则不然。上述规律又直接受样本大小n和站点数目p的影响。对于不同的气象场来说,达到稳定EOFs的样本临界值不同,必须警惕EOFs展开有可能不是稳定的。  相似文献   

EFFECTS OF ANOMALOUS HEATING ON SUMMER MONSOON OVER ASIA     

沈如金  纪立人 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1991,(5)

Based on a zonally non-uniform mean circulation in summer simulated by numerical modelling,perturba-tion heatings ever South Asia and a perturbation cooling over Northwest Australia were incorporated in a nu-merical model to discuss their effects on summer monsoon over Asia and the structure of flow disturbance.  相似文献   

EFFECTS OF ANOMALOUS HEATING ON SUMMER MONSOON OVER ASIA^*     

Shen Rujin  Ji Liren 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1991,5(5):564-576

Based on a zonally non-uniform mean circulation in summer simulated by numerical modelling,perturbation heatings ever South Asia and a perturbation cooling over Northwest Australia were incorporated in a numerical model to discuss their effects on summer monsoon over Asia and the structure of flow disturbance.  相似文献   

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION          下载免费PDF全文

Zhu Shengming  Cao Hongxing 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1991,5(1):90-100

In order to consider both the deterministic and the stochastic property of atmospheric motion simul-taneously,in this paper,the weather prediction is proposed as the problem of the evolution of meteorologicalfield.The historical viewpoint of atmospheric motion is emphasized here.Based on time series analysis te-chnique,a stochastic-dynamical model with multiple initial fields is derived.Thus,weather forecasting is sum-meal up as a problem of solving a set of stochastic difference equations.For the barotropic atmosphere,thenumerical solutions of the equations are obtained by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions(EOF),and examples of medium-range weather prediction are given here.Meanwhile,selecting the order oftime series,i.e.,determining the number of initial fields properly,is also discussed.  相似文献   

苏北平原井下摆观测效果的讨论     

徐元耀 《地震地磁观测与研究》1994,15(6):31-35

文章以江苏省大丰台、盐城台、淮阴台、海安台，射阳台井下摆观测为例。比较它们的观测结果，分析认为井下摆的观测效果不仅与地面复盖层的厚度有关，而且与井下摆周围的环境干扰，观测用井的质量有关。为了提高井下摆观测效果，应尽量减少环境干扰，并注意井的垂直度和固井，文章还指出，沿海地区井下摆受海浪干扰相当显著的。  相似文献   

日侧极隙纬度低频波及其与地磁扰动的关系          下载免费PDF全文

廖怀哲 Egela.  A 《地球物理学报》1995,38(3):293-304

利用挪威斯瓦尔巴德地区的ＥＬＦ／ＶＬＦ观测资料和世界数据中心公布的Ｋｐ指数，分析了日侧极隙纬度低频波不同季节里的周日变化和１９８４年５月－１９８６年４月的年度变化及这些波与地磁扰动的某些关系．主要结果有：１．夏季ＥＬＦ波出现率极大值最大，而冬季的最小，前者约为后者的３倍，而且此极大值无论哪个季节都出现在磁正午时段．２．ＶＬＦ波出现率在夏季较小冬季较大；其极大值出现在磁午后至磁子夜前的２－４ｈ时段里．３．夏季ＥＬＦ波指数∑Ａ与地磁指数∑ＫＰ日变化较相吻合，在太阳自转周内两者相关系数约为０．６．４．冬季ＶＬＦ波指数∑Ａ与∑Ｋｐ日变化相吻合，在太阳自转周内两者相关系数可达０．８．这些结果表明日侧极隙纬度ＥＬＦ波和ＶＬＦ波各有不同的产生机制和源区．  相似文献   

Micro-scale modelling in the study of plume evolution in heterogeneous media     

E. O. Frind  E. A. Sudicky  S. L. Schellenberg 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1987,1(4):263-279

The migration of contaminants in heterogeneous aquifers involves dispersive processes that act at different scales. The interaction of these processes as a plume evolves can be studied by micro-scale modelling whereby two scales, a local- or micro-scale and an aquifer- or macro-scale, are covered simultaneously. Local-scale dispersive processes are represented through the local dispersion coefficient in the transport equation, while large-scale dispersion due to heterogeneities is represented through the resolution of the flow field and the diffusive exchange between streamtubes. The micro-scale model provides both the high degree of resolution compatible with local-scale processes, and the extent required for the approach to asymptotic conditions, using grids of up to a million nodal points. The model is based on the dual potential-streamfunction formulation for flow, and the transport problem is formulated in a natural coordinate system provided by the flownet. Simulations can be used to verify stochastic theories of dispersion, without the restrictive assumptions inherent in the theory. For the two-dimensional case, results indicate convergence of the effective dispersivity to the theoretical macrodispersivity value. Convergence takes place within a travel distance of about 50 correlation lengths of the hydraulic conductivity field. However, the approach taken to asymptotic conditions, as well as the macrodispersivity value, may differ for different realizations of the same medium. The influence of early-time events such as plume splitting on the asymptotic convergence remains to be investigated.  相似文献   

A study of tropospheric wave disturbances over India in winter     

I. Subbaramayya  A. S. N. Raju 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1982,120(3):437-452

The wave disturbances in the troposphere over north and central India during winter when the subtropical westerlies prevail in the upper air over the area have been investigated by power-and cross-spectrum analysis. The power-spectrum study revealed the existence of basically two systems of periods 10.0–12.5 days and 4.5–5.5 days in the middle and upper troposphere. Both the long-and short-period systems have been found to be propagating eastwards at rates 5° and 10° long./day respectively. In both the cases lower temperatures are found to the east of the troughs. It is also noted that these systems build up the meridional temperature gradient and hence strengthen the upper tropospheric westerlies. Synoptic study of the transient systems is presented.  相似文献   

新型随机地震动模型   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

曾珂  牛荻涛  商瑞霞 《地震工程与工程振动》2005,25(6):30-37

在研究结构的随机地震反应时，要用大量的符合场地条件的地震记录作为输入数据。但强震历史记录却不是每个地区都有的，因此根据符合场地条件的现有地震记录建立随机地震动模型具有重要意义。本文利用中国抗震规范2001版修正选取的样本波作为目标波，考虑了幅值和频率的双重非平稳性，建立了新型随机地震动模型——改进的时变ARMA模型随机地震动模型。通过使用残差的卡方检验法，对多种非平稳ARMA模型生成的模拟波进行检验；同时又比较丁模拟波与目标波的功率谱密度图和反应谱图。结果证明：此法能够更精确地反映不同场地条件地震动的频谱和幅值的真实内容，从而建立符合目标场地条件的更为有效的模拟地震动，为相关研究与工程设计架起一座桥梁。  相似文献