Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction     

Norbert Kühl  Christoph Gebhardt  Thomas Litt  Andreas Hense 《Quaternary Research》2002,58(3):381

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.  相似文献   

Analyzing CO2 emissions mitigation by technology improvement in Central and Eastern Europe     

Diana Ürge-Vorsatz  Adam Szeszler 《GeoJournal》2002,57(3):211-226

As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region. Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia, which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

数字化射线照相技术对轻物质的判断     

韩裕生  罗娅  丁厚本  邵立康  廖南  朱平安 《CT理论与应用研究》2002,11(1):10-12

本文介绍了数字化射线照相技术对轻物质进行判断的方法。经实践证明，该方法是合理和有效的，可大大增强对轻物质的识别能力，是一种非常可行的识别技术。  相似文献   

南向行星际磁场事件与磁暴关系的研究   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

刘绍亮  李立文 《地球物理学报》2002,45(3):297-305

利用172-182年IMP-8飞船的太阳风观测资料和相应地磁活动性指数Dst和AE,研究了43个南向行星际磁场事件期间太阳风和磁层的耦合问题. 与这43个事件对应的地磁暴是中等的和强的磁暴(Dst＜-50nT). 结果表明:(1) 在43个事件中有11个(约占25.6髎)紧随激波之后,18个处于激波下游流场中(占42髎),其余14个(占33髎)和激波没有关连. 绝大多数事件都伴有太阳风动压和总磁场强度的增加;(2) 当行星际晨昏向电场强度EI＞-4mV/m时,只引起磁亚暴,对Dst指数没有明显影响. 仅当EI＜-5mV/m时,磁亚暴和磁暴才会同时出现;(3) 太阳风动压的增加会增强能量向环电流的输入,但不是密度和速度单独起作用,而是以PK=ρV2的组合形式影响能量的输入;(4) 虽然行星际磁场(IMF)南向分量BZ对太阳风和磁层的耦合起着关键作用,但IMF的BX和BY分量相对于BZ的大小对太阳风向磁层的能量传输也有一定影响. 当BX、BY相对BZ较大时能量耦合加强.  相似文献   

Screening model for volatile pollutants in dual porosity soils     

Mohamed M. Hantush  Rao. S. Govindaraju  Miguel A. Marioand Zhonglong Zhang 《Journal of Hydrology》2002,260(1-4):58-74

This paper develops mass fraction models for transport and fate of agricultural pollutants in structured two-region soils. Mass fraction index models, based on a semi-infinite domain solution, are derived that describe leaching at depth, vapor losses through soil surface, absorption, and degradation in the dynamic- and stagnant-water soil regions. The models predict that leaching is the result of the combined effect of the upward vapor-phase transport relative to downward advection, residence time relative to half-life, dispersion, and lateral diffusive mass transfer. Simulations show that leached fraction of volatile compounds does not always decrease monotonically with increased residence time relative to the pollutant half-life, as a result of complex interactions among the different physical and biochemical processes. The results show that leaching, volatilization, and degradation losses can be affected significantly by lateral diffusive mass transfer into immobile-water regions and advection relative to dispersion (i.e. Peclet number) in the mobile-water regions. It is shown that solute diffusion into the immobile phase and subsequent biochemical decay reduces leaching and vapor losses through soil surface. Potential use of the modified leaching index for the screening of selected pesticides is illustrated for different soil textures and infiltration rates. The analysis may be useful to the management of pesticides and the design of landfills.  相似文献   

地球物理技术在我国考古和文物保护工作中的应用   总被引：3，自引：6，他引：3  

钟世航 《地球物理学进展》2002,17(3):498-506

20世纪80年代以来，我国考古及文物保护工作者和地球物理工作者越来越认识到地球物理技术在考古和方物保护方面可以发挥作用，在古幕探查、大型古建筑地下遗存现状、古遗迹断代等方面，地球物理技术都找到了发挥作用的机会，本文通过地球物理技术在云冈石窟、龙门石窟、克孜尔石窟、北京故宫紫禁城、嵩岳寺塔、古泗州城遗址、风阳明中都等的物理探查实例，以及查找古幕、古遗迹断代等方面的工作，介绍了我国在考古和文物保护领域应用地球物理技术的进展，并指出了物探在用于考古和文保时的特点和展望。  相似文献   

结合农业科技园建设观光农园的探讨——以潮州鹤陇山农业科技园与观光农园的规划设计为例   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

徐君亮  江璐明 《热带地理》2002,22(3):236-240

广东省经济和旅游业发展位于全国榜首，人多地少全国最为突出，但乡村旅游建设相对滞后，文中通过潮州市郊鹤陇山农业科技园与观光农园规划设计，论述了发展高新技术农业是新世纪广东农业必由之路，提出结合农业科技园建设，叠加农业观光园，把生态农业建设与旅游文化结合起来，是广东乡村旅游发展的主要途径。  相似文献   

洪水演进三维模拟仿真系统可视化研究   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  

袁艳斌  袁晓辉  张勇传  刘吉平  侯国祥 《山地学报》2002,20(1):103-107

洪水演进仿真系统的研制，是实施“数字流域”工程的重要组成部分；结合洪水演进可视化目标的分析，基于Visual C 系统开发平台，融GIS技术和Opengl开发技术，采用三角形逼近、光滑处理和加入法向量以控制光照的方式，实现了流域地形及河床的三维可视化仿真；应用广度优先搜索算法确定了运动水体与流域河床形态的自适应与自相依的关系，使流域洪水演进模拟具有真实自然的可视化效果。所研制的系统雏形，可有效的模拟流域洪水的三维演进过程；  相似文献   

History and necessity: the evolution of soil conservation technology in a Jamaican farming system     

Rebecca J. Kent 《The Geographical journal》2002,168(1):48-56

The soil conservation campaigns that have been a prominent feature of Jamaican agricultural policy since the 1950s are frequently presented as having failed to ameliorate the problem of soil erosion in hillside agriculture. A case study of a small farming community in the Blue Mountains explores the development of the soil conservation practices currently employed by farmers. The use of trash barriers in carrot farming is described and the origins of this technology and its subsequent adaptation are considered. The study concludes that extension interventions and government policy have influenced the development of current soil conservation practices; practices which have their roots in indigenous techniques. Other factors such as the adaptation of trash barriers to suit local conditions and their importance in soil fertility management also play a role in their widespread use in the study area. The study demonstrates that to understand the process of technical change in farming communities, it is necessary to consider a range of factors, external and internal, technical and social, that have over time influenced farmers' decision making.  相似文献   

Religion and technology: refiguring place, space, identity and community   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lily Kong 《Area》2002,33(4):404-413

This paper reviews the literature on the religion–technology nexus, drawing up a research agenda and offering preliminary empirical insights. First, I stress the need to explore the new politics of space as a consequence of technological development, emphasizing questions about the role of religion in effecting a form of religious (neo)imperialism, and uneven access to techno-religious spaces. Second, I highlight the need to examine the politics of identity and community, since cyberspace is not an isotropic surface. Third, I underscore the need to engage with questions about the poetics of religious community as social relations become mediated by technology. Finally, I focus on questions about the poetics of place, particularly the technological mediation of rituals.  相似文献