内蒙古冬季极端多雪气候事件环流演变特征及季节预测信号     

高涛  乌兰  司瑶冰  关彦如  杨泽龙  任晓萌  张晓梅 《内蒙古气象》2019,(1):3-8,I0002

文章研究关注了内蒙古冬季极端多雪气候事件的季节预测问题,在对大量降水观测资料、海温及大气环流场资料进行统计、分析、研究的基础上,确定了历史上58a(1960—2017年)内蒙古冬季极端多雪和少雪气候事件样本,通过对大气环流场的对比分析发现极端多雪或少雪冬季环流场特征显著不同,分析后确定了影响内蒙古冬季降雪的主要环流系统,包括西太平洋副热带高压、极涡、东亚大槽、环流E型及南方涛动等系统。同时,探索了对这些主要环流系统具有预测意义的来自海洋和大气场的预测信号,对预测信号关键区做了标准化定量提取,确定了预测信号综合指数分段判别阈值,给出了预测概念模型,取得了较好预测效果。  相似文献   

Tectonics of the Scandian orogeny and the Western Gneiss Region in southern Norway     

F. H. Koenemann 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1993,82(4):696-717

Two crust-forming events dominate the Precambrian history of the Western Gneiss Region (WGR) at about 1800–1600 Ma and 1550–1400 Ma. The influence of the Sveconorwegian orogeny (1200–900 Ma) is restricted to the region south of Moldefjord-Romsdalen. A series of anorthosites and related intrusives are present, possibly derived from the now-lost western margin of the Baltic craton that may have been emplaced in the WGR as an allochthonous unit before the Ordovician.The Caledonian development is split into two orogenic phases, the Finnmarkian (Cambrian — Early Ordovician) and the Scandian (Late Ordovician/Early Silurian — Devonian). The lower tectonic units west of the Trondheim Trough may be Finnmarkian nappes ; they were part of the lower plate during the Scandian continental collision. The Blåhö nappe is correlated with dismembered eclogite bodies along the coast. A regional change of nappe transport direction from 090 to 135 marks the initiation of an orogen-parallel sinistral shear component around 425 Ma. The change caused the development of a complex sinistral strike-slip system in the Trondheim region consisting of the Möre-Tröndelag Fault Zone and the Gränse contact. The latter cut the crust underneath the already emplaced Trondheim Nappe Complex, thus triggering the intrusion of the Fongen-Hyllingen igneous complex, and initiating subsidence of the Trondheim Trough, and was subsequently turned from a strike-slip zone into an extensional fault. Minor southward transport of the Trondheim Nappe Complex rejuvenated some thrusts between the Lower and the Middle Allochthon. A seismic reflector underneath the WGR is interpreted to be a blind thrust which subcrops into the Faltungsgraben. During Middle Devonian orogenic collapse, detachment faulting brought higher units, now eroded elsewhere, down to the present outcrop level, such as the Bergen and Dalsfjord nappe and the Old Red basins.  相似文献   

多层递推平稳模型     

汤兆焘  李法然  杨育强  黄玲琳  孙建明 《气象》1994,20(11):40-43

通过对小概率事件历史样本作多层递推迭代，逐次改变引入样本数求取权函数，建立一种平稳统计模式。模式信息容量大，收敛快，克服了常规统计模式的局限性，在灾害性天气客观预报模型应用中取得了明显效果。  相似文献   

ENSO事件发展的时空特征   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

张秋庆  黄荣辉 《大气科学》1993,17(4):395-402

本文利用1951—1988年10°S—50°N太平洋SST资料与EOF分析方法对ENSO事件的发展过程与循环的时空特征进行了分析.分析结果表明EOF第一主分量时间系数的变化可以很好地表示SST距平变化与ENSO事件的发生.并且,第一主分量空间函数分布的变化揭示了一种ENSO事件增温是春季首先始于赤道东太平洋沿岸,随后向西传播到赤道中太平洋的增温过程;而第二主分量空间函数分布的变化揭示了另一种ENSO事件可增温首先始于赤道中太平洋,然后向东传播到赤道东太平洋的增温过程.分析结果还表明,ENSO事件的强度是强弱相间,其周期平均大约为4年左右. 本文还比较了80年代热带太平洋SST的变化及所发生的两次ENSO事件与其它年代所发生的ENSO事件的差别.  相似文献   

Assessment of episodic acidification in Sierra Nevada,California     

Nikolaos P. Nikolaidis  Vicki S. Nikolaidis  Jerald L. Schnoor 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1991,53(4):330-345

Monte-Carlo simulations were used to assess the extent of shortterm alkalinity depressions occuring in Sierra Nevada lakes due to acidic deposition events. The Episodic Event Model (EEM) was used to simulate spring snowmelt events. Snow course data, precipitation data and lake acidification surveys were used to derive values for the EEM parameters. Spring snowmelt events were shown to have great impacts on the water quality of Sierran lakes. Lakes are likely to be most affected by the early-spring snowmelt event because the epilimnion depth is at a minimum, which indicates minimum dilution. Under annual average loading conditions, no Sierran lake has been reported as acidic although 29% of the lakes have alkalinities less than 40 µeq/L indicating a sensitivity to acidification. In simulations of early-spring snowmelt events, using present-day acidic loading conditions, it was estimated 79% ± 9% of the lakes would experience shortterm lake alkalinity depressions to levels less than 40 µeq/L. The results provided by the model simulations are valuable in establishing upper and lower limits on the extent of possible episodic acidification to lake-resources-at-risk. The most critical parameters controlling the magnitude of lake alkalinity depressions during snowmelt episodic events are a) the lake area to watershed area ratio — a measure of input loading, and b) the epilimnion volume — a measure of dilution and mixing.  相似文献   

通量传输事件磁场的理论计算及其与观测的比较     

刘振兴  王德驹 《地球物理学报》1991,34(5):538-551

根据涡旋诱发重联理论,对通量传输事件（FTEs）磁场分布特性作了计算.结果表明,卫星测到的FTEs的不同磁场分布形态,是取决于通量管的运动方向及卫星穿越通量管的部位.在北半球,当通量管由低纬向高纬（由南向北）直向运动时,不论卫星通过什么部位,绝大多数情况下观测到先正后负的B_x,变化（即正FTE）,个别部位观测到先负后正的B_x变化（即反FTE）;B_z是单峰分布形式,表现为V型、倒V型或是U型和倒U型.当通量管在x方向有正或负速度分量即斜向运动时,大部分部位测到的B_x呈不规则变化,B_z表现为双极分布.与61个FTEs的观测实例作了对比,理论计算与观测符合得较好.  相似文献   

Earthquakes in the Czech Republic and Surrounding Regions in 1995–1999     

Zedník  J.  Pospíšil  J.  Růžek  B.  Horálek  J.  Boušková  A.  Jedlička  P.  Skácelová  Z.  Nehybka  V.  Holub  K.  Rušajová  J. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2001,45(3):267-282

In the time span from January 1995 to December 1999 the Czech National Seismological Network (CNSN), consisting of ten permanent digital broadband stations, several local networks and two data centers, detected and recorded 9530 regional natural seismic events, 27 greater than magnitude 2. Most of these events were located by the Czech Seismological Service (CSS), and the most prominent of them were analyzed in detail. A large number of quarry blasts were recorded as well but were not included in the analysis. We provide basic information on the configuration of the CNSN and on the way of routine data processing employed by the CSS in this paper. The over-all regional seismicity monitored by the CNSN in 1995–1999 is briefly reviewed. The main results of observations and evaluation of the local (NW-Bohemia/Vogtland, South Bohemia, Sudeten) and induced (Kladno, Píbram, Upper Silesia, Lubin/Poland) seismic activity within this period are presented in a condensed form. Finally, a summary on macroseismic observations on the territory of the Czech Republic in 1995–1999 is also presented.  相似文献   

末次冰期东亚季风快速波动的模式与成因     

管清玉  潘保田  邬光剑  高红山  李琼  苏怀 《沉积学报》2007,25(3):429-436

通过对位于东亚季风区中东部与西部边缘的两个高分辨率黄土剖面记录的对比研究，发现它们不仅捕捉到了20个Dansgaard Oeschger事件与6个Heinrich事件，而且黄土记录与GRIP冰芯记录的这些快速气候波动基本上是同步的。暗示在整个末次冰期，东亚季风气候同样存在千年—百年尺度上的快速波动。所不同的是，西面的沙沟剖面对这些快速气候波动的反应比东面的王官剖面敏感。结合末次冰期中国黄土记录的先前研究结果，我们发现，自西向东Dansgaard Oeschger旋回的幅度逐渐变小，推测这主要是由西风与东亚夏季风共同作用所造成的。  相似文献   

The waveform similarity approach to identify dependent events in instrumental seismic catalogues   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

S. Barani  G. Ferretti  M. Massa  D. Spallarossa 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,168(1):100-108

  相似文献   

An Experiment Using the High Resolution Eta and WRF Models to Forecast Heavy Precipitation over India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Y. V. Rama Rao  H. R. Hatwar  Ahmad Kamal Salah  Y. Sudhakar 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1593-1615

In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Eta models, recent heavy rainfall events that occurred (i) over parts of Maharastra during 26 to 27 July, 2005, (ii) over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during 24 to 28 October, 2005, and (iii) the tropical cyclone of 30 September to 3 October, 2004/Monsoon Depression of 2 to 5 October 2004, that developed during the withdrawal phase of the southwest monsoon season of 2004 have been investigated. Also sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes in capturing the extreme weather events. The results show that the WRF model with the microphysical process and cumulus parameterization schemes of Ferrier et al. and Betts-Miller-Janjic was able to capture the heavy rainfall events better than the other schemes. It is also observed that the WRF model was able to predict mesoscale rainfall more realistically in comparison to the Eta model of the same resolution.  相似文献