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101.
According to the hydrochemical characteristics, hydrogen and oxygen isotope characteristics and the ratio of noble gas isotopes of the sandstone aquifer and basalt aquifer, this study calculated the recharge temperature and residence time of groundwater in the Weishan area of Wudalianchi, also calculating the contribution of noble gas components from different sources to the samples. Based on the characteristics of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes and noble gases Xe and Ne, the recharge altitude and recharge temperature of the two aquifers were estimated, and the recharge temperature fitting with the NGT model as verified, the results showing that the main recharge altitude of groundwater in the region was 500–600 m, the recharge temperature being 2–7°C. Heeq and Heea of the samples have been simulated using the OD model, the content of radioactive 4He in the crust being obtained, the groundwater ages under the two conditions (closed condition and open condition) both being simulated. The results show that groundwater from the sandstone layer water is older than groundwater from the basalt layer. Hydrochemical characteristics and noble gas isotope ratios indicate that in the basalt aquifer and sandstone aquifer in the Weishan area, in addition to atmospheric and crustal helium, there is also an input of mantle-derived helium. The fault constitutes the uplift channel for groundwater containings mantle components, which results in the mantle source composition in water samples near the fault being much higher than those form non-fault areas.  相似文献   
102.
基于最新的经济和人口普查及逐年统计年鉴,采用柯布?道格拉斯(Cobb-Douglas)经济预测模型,分析了共享社会经济路径(SSPs)框架下中国“全面二孩”政策后2010—2100年经济发展趋势,并解析了劳动投入量、资本投入量和全要素生产率对经济发展的贡献率。研究发现:(1)不同的社会经济发展政策下,21世纪中国经济均呈增加趋势,GDP增速在2030年前基本维持在6%上下,但2030—2060年代迅速下降,2070年代起SSP1和SSP4路径下增幅低于0.5%,SSP2、SSP3和SSP5路径下增幅保持在0.5%~1.5%。(2)影响经济发展的三要素中,劳动投入量在SSP3路径下先减后增,于2060年代达到谷值;在其他路径下均先增后减,于2020年代达到峰值。资本投入量在SSP1路径下持续增加,2080年代起趋于平缓;其他路径下均呈持续增加趋势,但在SSP4路径下,在2060和2070年代有所下降。全要素生产率在所有路径下均呈增加趋势。(3)改革开放以来,资本投入量是影响我国经济增长最主要的因素。未来,SSP1和SSP2路径下,全要素生产率逐渐成为经济发展的主导因素;而SSP5路径下,资本投入量仍是影响经济发展的主要因素。  相似文献   
103.
1980~2010年华北平原农田土壤有机碳的时空变化   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
利用农业生态系统过程模型(Agricultural Production Systems s IMulator,APSIM),研究了1980~2010年间中国华北平原农田土壤有机碳(Soil Organic Carbon,SOC)的时空变化。模型验证结果表明,校正后的APSIM模型总体能够较好地模拟徐州、郑州和昌平3个长期定位试验站点中各处理下小麦和玉米的产量变化以及SOC的变化。区域模拟结果显示,1980~2010年间华北平原大部分农田SOC呈增加趋势,仅河北省的北部、山东省中部和东部部分地区农田SOC减少。华北平原总的农田面积约为24.52 Mha(1 ha=0.01 km2),其SOC密度的平均变化速率为0.35 Mg(C)ha-1 a-1,总的SOC贮量增加了约257.43 Tg。在京津冀地区、山东省以及河南省的农田中,SOC分别平均增加了102.05、59.82、95.56 Tg。SOC的增加,主要归功于过去几十年里外源碳投入量的增加。  相似文献   
104.
文章通过BP神经网络模型,利用西沙站的实测潮位推算三亚站潮位,研究用一地点的潮位资料去推算另一地点(异地)潮位的方法。文章比较了不同隐含层节点数和输入因子对潮位推算结果的影响,采用预测时间(t)之前N个小时(t–N+1,…,t–1,t)西沙站的实测潮位数据作为输入因子,输入因子数目在2~10之间,隐含层分别采用节点数3、4、5、10和15建模,分多种情况进行推算。结果显示,对文中使用的特定情形,隐含层为4个节点的效果最好,隐含层为15个节点的效果最差;输入层为2个节点的效果最好,输入因子增多会使得推算效果变差。隐含层为4个节点、输入因子为t–1、t时刻潮位的仿真验证的结果最好,推算值和实测值之间的相关系数为0.9901,均方根误差为0.06m,误差在–0.16~0.15m之间。结果表明,如果两个地点的潮位具有物理上的关联,通过BP神经网络模型,用一地点的实测潮位推算另一地点潮位的方法是可行的。  相似文献   
105.
Based on the China Rural Statistical Yearbook of 1984-2003 published by State Statistics Bureau,and the annual temperature in the same period,impacts of temperature change,agricultural input,and planting area on grin production were analyzed for different regions of China during the last 20 years.The results show that the main characteristic of climate warming has obviously promoted the increase of grain yield in Northeast China.but to some extent suppressed it in North China,Northwest China and Southwest China,and shown no obvious effect on it in East China and Central-South China.The increase in agricultural input facilitated the grain production obviously in various regions in the early stage of the past 20 years,but showed no obvious effect in the late stage.The continuous reduction in sown area had a significant negative effect on the grain production in East China and Central-South China.  相似文献   
106.
景观植被生态系统水平衡模拟与分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
景观或区域的水平衡状况是全球变化的重要指标。本研究建立了一个空间显式景观过程模型,模拟了长白山自然保护区的水循环过程,并对水分收入、支出和平衡的总体状况、季节动态和空间分布格局进行了分析。整个保护区单位面积上水分盈余0.225±0.255 m.a-1,总计盈余4.379×108m3.a-1,但空间变异相当大。阔叶红松林的水分有略微亏缺,其他类型植被生态系统每年均有不同程度的水分盈余。从总面积上看,云冷杉林每年的水分盈余最多(可达1.696×108m3.a-1),占整个保护区的40.56%。整个保护区6月水分亏缺最严重,7~8月水分盈余最多,3~4月盈余较多。阔叶红松林除3月外,其他各月的水分亏缺均最多或次多,其中7~8月的水分盈余最少。降水量对水分收入、水分支出和水平衡季节动态的影响均最大。总的来说,年水分盈余的空间分布随海拔升高呈明显增加的趋势。气象因子均对水平衡的空间分布有极显著影响,气温和总辐射较高的地带,水分盈余较少,甚至出现水分亏缺;而降水量、相对湿度和风速较高的地带,水分盈余也较多。水分收入与叶面积指数(LAI)呈极显著负相关关系;而水分支出与LAI呈极显著正相关关系,主要受蒸腾量的影响。  相似文献   
107.
Resonant characteristics of recorded ground motions are investigated and a new measure of criticality of ground motions is proposed. Four classes of recorded ground motions, i.e., (i) near fault motions (rock records), (ii) near fault motions (soil records), (iii) long duration motions (rock records) and (iv) long duration motions (soil records), are taken from Abrahamson N, Ashford S, Elgamal A, Kramer S, Seible F, Somerville P, Proc of First PEER Workshop on Characterization of Special Source Effects, 1998. It is shown that resonant characteristics of recorded ground motions can be captured appropriately by means of the probabilistic critical excitation method due to the present author regardless of the type of ground motions and the distance between the critical response and the actual one can be a new measure of criticality of ground motions. The time-averaged approximate treatment of nonstationary ground motions as stationary ones is shown to be adequate for structures with shorter natural periods subjected to long duration ground motions.  相似文献   
108.
Scenario‐based earthquake simulations at regional scales hold the promise in advancing the state‐of‐the‐art in seismic risk assessment studies. In this study, a computational workflow is presented that combines (i) a broadband Green's function‐based fault‐rupture and ground motion simulation—herein carried out using the “UCSB (University of California at Santa Barbara) method”, (ii) a three‐dimensional physics‐based regional‐scale wave propagation simulation that is resolved at  Hz, and (iii) a local soil‐foundation‐structure finite element analysis model. These models are interfaced with each other using the domain reduction method. The innermost local model—implemented in ABAQUS—is additionally enveloped with perfectly matched layer boundaries that absorb outbound waves scattered by the structures contained within it. The intermediate wave propagation simulation is carried out using Hercules , which is an explicit time‐stepping finite element code that is developed and licensed by the CMU‐QUAKE group. The devised workflow is applied to a  km region on the European side of Istanbul, which was modeled using detailed soil stratigraphy data and realistic fault rupture properties, which are available from prior microzonation surveys and earthquake scenario studies. The innermost local model comprises a chevron‐braced steel frame building supported by a shallow foundation slab, which, in turn, rests atop a three‐dimensional soil domain. To demonstrate the utility of the workflow, results obtained using various simplified soil‐structure interaction analysis techniques are compared with those from the detailed direct model. While the aforementioned demonstration has a limited scope, the devised workflow can be used in a multitude of ways, for example, to examine the effects of shallow‐layer soil nonlinearities and surface topography, to devise site‐ and structure‐specific seismic fragilities, and for calibrating regional loss models, to name a few.  相似文献   
109.
In this paper, the applicability of an auto‐regressive model with exogenous inputs (ARX) in the frequency domain to structural health monitoring (SHM) is established. Damage sensitive features that explicitly consider non‐linear system input/output relationships are extracted from the ARX model. Furthermore, because of the non‐Gaussian nature of the extracted features, Extreme Value Statistics (EVS) is employed to develop a robust damage classifier. EVS provides superior performance to standard statistical methods because the data of interest are in the tails (extremes) of the damage sensitive feature distribution. The suitability of the ARX model, combined with EVS, to non‐linear damage detection is demonstrated using vibration data obtained from a laboratory experiment of a three‐story building model. It is found that the vibration‐based method, while able to discern when damage is present in the structure, is unable to localize the damage to a particular joint. An impedance‐based active sensing method using piezoelectric (PZT) material as both an actuator and a sensor is then investigated as an alternative solution to the problem of damage localization. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
110.
本文对数字区域地质调查前期PRB过程中收集到的测区各种资料的录入方法做了全面分析,系统地阐述了如何将各种收集资料数字化,录入RGMAP系统,并整合在统一空间上,为其后数字区域地质调查PRB过程作准备。  相似文献   
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