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J. Venkata Ratnam D. R. Sikka Akshara Kaginalkar Amit Kesarkar N. Jyothi Sudipta Banerjee 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1641-1665
As a part of the Experimental Extended Range Monsoon Prediction Experiment, ensemble mode seasonal runs for the monsoon season
of 2005 were made using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), T170L42 AGCM. The seasonal runs were made
using six initial atmospheric conditions based on the NCEP operational analysis and with forecast monthly sea-surface temperature
(SST) of the NCEP Coupled forecast system (CFS). These simulations were carried out on the PARAM Padma supercomputer of Centre
for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), India. The model climatology was prepared by integrating the model for ten
years using climatological SST as the lower boundary. The climatology of the model compares well with the observed, in terms
of the spatial distribution of rainfall over the Indian land mass. The model-simulated rainfall compares well with the Tropical
Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates for the 2005 monsoon season. Compared to the model climatology (7.81 mm/day),
the model had simulated a normal rainfall (7.75 mm/day) for the year 2005 which is in agreement with the observations (99%
of long-term mean). However, the model could not capture the observed increase in September rainfall from that of a low value
in August 2005. The circulation patterns simulated by the model are also comparable to the observed patterns. The ensemble
mean onset is found to be nearer to the observed onset date within one pentad. 相似文献
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利用NCEP的气候预报系统（Climate Forecast System, CFS）所提供的1981—2004年历史回报试验结果,检验和评估了该系统对夏季东亚地区大气环流的预报技巧和系统误差;在此基础上通过提取模式预报和观测的10~20 d及30~60 d低频振荡分量,重点对我国南方3次典型持续性暴雨过程的预报技巧进行检验和诊断分析。结果表明:CFS系统对东亚整体大气环流逐日预报的可靠时效为5 d左右,60°N以北的对流层中高层高度场预报系统性偏低,而在40°~60°N则为系统性偏高。系统性误差随预报时间的延长而增加,但10 d以上预报的系统性误差大小和空间分布逐渐趋于稳定;CFS系统对低频分量的延伸期预报技巧好于对其整体大气环流的预报技巧,并且在典型持续性暴雨过程中,CFS系统对影响强降水过程的主要环流系统低频振荡特征有一定预报能力。 相似文献
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Failure time variation derived from R–S relation: the role of the static stress perturbation 
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下载免费PDF全文 In general, earthquake cycle related to earthquake faulting could include four major processes which could be described by (1) fault locking, (2) self-acceleration or nucleation (possible foreshocks), (3) coseismic slip, and (4) post-stress relaxation and afterslip. A sudden static stress change/perturbation in the surrounding crust can advance/delay the fault instability or failure time and modify earthquake rates. Based on a simple one-dimensional spring-slider block model with the combination of rate-and-state-dependent friction relation, in this study, we have approximately derived the simple analytical solutions of clock advance/delay of fault failures caused by a sudden static Coulomb stress change applied in the different temporal evolution periods during an earthquake faulting. The results have been used in the physics-based explanation of delayed characteristic earthquake in Parkfield region, California, in which the next characteristic earthquake of M 6.0 after 1966 occurred in 2004 instead of around 1988 according to its characteristic return period of 22 years. At the same time, the analytical solutions also indicate that the time advance/delay in Coulomb stress change derived by the dislocation model has a certain limitation and fundamental flaw. Furthermore, we discussed the essential difference between rate- and state-variable constitutive (R–S) model and Coulomb stress model used commonly in current earthquake triggering study, and demonstrated that, in fact, the Coulomb stress model could be involved in the R–S model. The results, we have obtained in this study, could be used in the development of time-dependent fault interaction model and the probability calculation related to the time-dependent and renewal earthquake prediction model. 相似文献
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地震预警中的单台综合定位方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于日本基盘强震观测网中某个地震事件首个地震台记录的震级在4级以上、震中距为30~100 km的强震数据,运用B-Δ法和Voronoi多边形法相结合的方法计算震中距。结果表明,B-Δ法和Voronoi多边形法相结合计算出的震中距与单用B-Δ法的计算结果相比,单台定位所用时间相同,但其定位精度明显提高。 相似文献
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Ke CHE Yi LIU Zhaonan CAI Dongxu YANG Haibo WANG Denghui JI Yang YANG Pucai WANG 《大气科学进展》2022,39(8):1299-1315
Measurements of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide, CO2 (XCO2) and CO (XCO), were performed throughout 2019 at an urban site in Beijing using a compact Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) EM27/SUN. This data set is used to assess the characteristics of combustion-related CO2 emissions of urban Beijing by analyzing the correlated daily anomalies of XCO and XCO2 (e.g., ΔXCO and ΔXCO2). The EM27/SUN measurements were calibrated to a 125HR-FTS at the Xianghe station by an extra EM27/SUN instrument transferred between two sites. The ratio of ΔXCO over ΔXCO2 (ΔXCO:ΔXCO2) is used to estimate the combustion efficiency in the Beijing region. A high correlation coefficient (0.86) between ΔXCO and ΔXCO2 is observed. The CO:CO2 emission ratio estimated from inventories is higher than the observed ΔXCO:ΔXCO2 (10.46 ± 0.11 ppb ppm?1) by 42.54%–101.15%, indicating an underestimation in combustion efficiency in the inventories. Daily ΔXCO:ΔXCO2 are influenced by transportation governed by weather conditions, except for days in summer when the correlation is low due to the terrestrial biotic activity. By convolving the column footprint [ppm (μmol m–2 s–1)–1] generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting-X-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport models (WRF-X-STILT) with two fossil-fuel emission inventories (the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) and the Peking University (PKU) inventory), the observed enhancements of CO2 and CO were used to evaluate the regional emissions. The CO2 emissions appear to be underestimated by 11% and 49% for the MEIC and PKU inventories, respectively, while CO emissions were overestimated by MEIC (30%) and PKU (35%) in the Beijing area. 相似文献
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本文综合探究了日平均气温、24h变温和气温日较差变化对缺血性心脑血管疾病发病人数的影响,采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)与广义相加模型(GAM),分别探析了2015—2016年安徽省阜南县和贵州省锦屏县日平均气温、24h变温和气温日较差与缺血性心脑血管住院病人数的暴露—反应关系。结果表明:气温日较差大于15℃缺血性心脑血管疾病相对风险剧烈升高,并呈现明显的即时效应,且其相对风险随滞后日增加和气温日较差增加达到叠加效应的峰值。当24h内气温下降7℃以上,缺血性心脑血管疾病相对风险开始明显上升,下降10℃以上呈现显著的即时效应。统计分析发现,两县在春季达到上述阈值概率最高,因此缺血性心脑血管疾病住院人数也在春季达到峰值,特别是雨水至清明节气时段为两县住院人数共同最高峰时段;值得注意的是,地处西部的锦屏县夏季缺血性心脑血管疾病发病人数也较多。此外,降温过程与节气转换也是导致两县缺血性心脑血管疾病住院人数阶段性增多的主要天气与气候因素。 相似文献
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新疆于田地区位于青藏高原与塔里木盆地相交会的地方, 强震频发。 2008年以来, 该地区陆续发生的4次M6以上强震都位于阿尔金断裂带南分支的龙木错—郭扎错断裂带附近。 这些地震的发生为研究于田地区中强震活动的空间分布及其之间的相互作用及提供了很好的实例。 首先, 利用小震目录对区域地震活动进行分析, 给出了地震活动性参数b值的空间分布。 然后, 采用分层黏弹性模型研究了区域4次中强地震所造成的区域应力转移。 我们发现, 于田地区近年来强震活动的时空分布特征可能与区域地壳应力水平的差异有关。 康西瓦断裂带上历史强震活跃, 但是现今地震较平静, b值较高; 而龙木错—郭扎错断裂带附近的b值相对较低, 现今强震活动频繁。 于田地区4次中强震造成的应力转移则比较复杂, 2012年地震受到2008年地震的卸载作用, 而2014年和2020年2次地震的发生均受到前序地震的促进作用。 综合区域地震活动和强震之间应力转移的分析, 可以认为阿尔金断裂带南支的龙木错—郭扎错断裂带上, 应力水平仍然相对较高, 未来的地震危险性仍然较大。 相似文献
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The limits of predictability of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in coupled models are investigated based on retrospective forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) made with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system (CFS). The influence of initial uncertainties and model errors associated with coupled ENSO dynamics on forecast error growth are discussed. The total forecast error has maximum values in the equatorial Pacific and its growth is a strong function of season irrespective of lead time. The largest growth of systematic error of SST occurs mainly over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and near the southeastern coast of the Americas associated with ENSO events. After subtracting the systematic error, the root-mean-square error of the retrospective forecast SST anomaly also shows a clear seasonal dependency associated with what is called spring barrier. The predictability with respect to ENSO phase shows that the phase locking of ENSO to the mean annual cycle has an influence on the seasonal dependence of skill, since the growth phase of ENSO events is more predictable than the decay phase. The overall characteristics of predictability in the coupled system are assessed by comparing the forecast error growth and the error growth between two model forecasts whose initial conditions are 1 month apart. For the ensemble mean, there is fast growth of error associated with initial uncertainties, becoming saturated within 2 months. The subsequent error growth follows the slow coupled mode related the model’s incorrect ENSO dynamics. As a result, the Lorenz curve of the ensemble mean NINO3 index does not grow, because the systematic error is identical to the same target month. In contrast, the errors of individual members grow as fast as forecast error due to the large instability of the coupled system. Because the model errors are so systematic, their influence on the forecast skill is investigated by analyzing the erroneous features in a long simulation. For the ENSO forecasts in CFS, a constant phase shift with respect to lead month is clear, using monthly forecast composite data. This feature is related to the typical ENSO behavior produced by the model that, unlike the observations, has a long life cycle with a JJA peak. Therefore, the systematic errors in the long run are reflected in the forecast skill as a major factor limiting predictability after the impact of initial uncertainties fades out. 相似文献
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