Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling     

Roberta-Serena Blasone  Jasper A. Vrugt  Henrik Madsen  Dan Rosbjerg  Bruce A. Robinson  George A. Zyvoloski 《Advances in water resources》2008

In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes.  相似文献   

Scour below pipelines and around vertical piles due to second-order random waves plus a current     

Dag Myrhaug  Muk Chen Ong  Henrik Føien  Cecilie Gjengedal  Bernt J. Leira 《Ocean Engineering》2009,36(8):605-616

This paper provides a method by which the scour depth below pipelines and around single vertical piles for combined random waves plus current including effects of second-order wave asymmetry can be derived. Here the empirical formulas proposed by Sumer and Fredsøe [1996. Scour below pipelines in combined waves and current. In: Proceedings of the 15th OMAE Conference, Florence, Italy. Vol. 5, ASME, New York, pp. 595–602] for pipelines, and by Sumer and Fredsøe [2002. The mechanics of scour in the marine environment. World Scientific, Singapore] for vertical piles are used together with Stokes second-order wave theory by assuming the basic harmonic wave motion to be a stationary Gaussian narrow-band random process. Comparisons are made with the Sumer and Fredsøe [1996. Scour below pipelines in combined waves and current. In: Proceedings of the 15th OMAE Conference, Florence, Italy. Vol. 5, ASME, New York, pp. 595–602; 2001. Scour around pile in combined waves and current. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 127(5), 403–411] data for linear random waves plus current. An example of calculation is also presented.  相似文献   

Honey, I cooled the cods: Modelling the effect of temperature on the structure of Boreal/Arctic fish ecosystems     

John G. Pope  Jannike Falk-Pedersen  Simon Jennings  Jake C. Rice  Henrik Gislason  Niels Daan   《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2009,56(21-22):2097

Historically colder regions of the North Atlantic had fisheries dominated by only a few fish species; principally cod and capelin. Possible population dynamic mechanisms that lead to such dominance are investigated by considering how a charmingly simple published multispecies model of the North Sea would react if the system operated at a lower temperature. The existing model equations were modified to describe temperature effects on growth, fecundity and recruitment and the model was rerun based on typical temperatures for the North Sea and a colder system. The results suggest that total fish biomass in the colder system increases but the community is more vulnerable to a given rate of fishing mortality. In the colder system, within species density dependence is reduced but relative predation rates are higher. Consequently, intermediate-sized species are vulnerable to relatively high levels of predation throughout their life history and tend to be excluded, leading to a system dominated by small and large species. The model helps to explain how temperature may govern coexistence and competitive exclusion in fish communities and accounts for the observed dominance of small and large species in Boreal/Arctic ecosystems.  相似文献   

Urban green commons: Insights on urban common property systems   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Johan Colding  Stephan Barthel  Pim Bendt  Robbert Snep  Wim van der Knaap  Henrik Ernstson 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1039-1051

The aim of this paper is to shed new light on urban common property systems. We deal with urban commons in relation to urban green-space management, referring to them as urban green commons. Applying a property-rights analytic perspective, we synthesize information on urban green commons from three case-study regions in Sweden, Germany, and South Africa, and elaborate on their role for biodiversity conservation in urban settings, with a focus on business sites. Cases cover both formally established types of urban green commons and bottom-up emerged community-managed habitats. As our review demonstrates, the right to actively manage urban green space is a key characteristic of urban green commons whether ownership to land is in the private, public, the club realm domain, or constitutes a hybrid of these. We discuss the important linkages among urban common property systems, social–ecological learning, and management of ecosystem services and biodiversity. Several benefits can be associated with urban green commons, such as a reduction of costs for ecosystem management and as designs for reconnecting city-inhabitants to the biosphere. The emergence of urban green commons appears closely linked to dealing with societal crises and for reorganizing cities; hence, they play a key role in transforming cities toward more socially and ecologically benign environments. While a range of political questions circumscribe the feasibility of urban green commons, we discuss their usefulness in management of different types of urban habitats, their political justification and limitation, their potential for improved biodiversity conservation, and conditions for their emergence. We conclude by postulating some general policy advice.  相似文献   

Viscous overstability and eccentricity evolution in three-dimensional gaseous discs     

Henrik N. Latter  Gordon I. Ogilvie 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,372(4):1829-1839

We investigate the growth or decay rate of the fundamental mode of even symmetry in a viscous accretion disc. This mode occurs in eccentric discs and is known to be potentially overstable. We determine the vertical structure of the disc and its modes, treating radiative energy transport in the diffusion approximation. In the limit of very long radial wavelength, an analytical criterion for viscous overstability is obtained, which involves the effective shear and bulk viscosity, the adiabatic exponent, and the opacity law of the disc. This differs from the prediction of a two-dimensional model. On shorter wavelengths (a few times the disc thickness), the criterion for overstability is more difficult to satisfy because of the different vertical structure of the mode. In a low-viscosity disc a third regime of intermediate wavelengths appears, in which the overstability is suppressed as the horizontal velocity perturbations develop significant vertical shear. We suggest that this effect determines the damping rate of eccentricity in protoplanetary discs, for which the long-wavelength analysis is inapplicable and overstability is unlikely to occur on any scale. In thinner accretion discs and in decretion discs around Be stars overstability may occur only on the longest wavelengths, leading to the preferential excitation of global eccentric modes.  相似文献   

Proterozoic fluvial styles: response to changes in accommodation space (Rivieradal sandstones, eastern North Greenland)     

Martin S  nderholm  Henrik Tirsgaard 《Sedimentary Geology》1998,120(1-4):257-274

Fluvial styles recorded by the uppermost part of the Neoproterozoic ‘Rivieradal sandstones' succession of eastern North Greenland reflect variations in rate of generated accommodation space and possibly climatic changes. Three facies associations, arranged in two genetic sequences, are recognised within the succession. The lower sequence initially records little available accommodation space. A high degree of reworking results in sheet-like, high-energy, bed-load-dominated, braided river deposits lacking recurrent facies patterns. As accommodation space increases upwards through the sequence, reduction in reworking is recorded by the development of fining- and thickening-upward muddy fluvial cycles. Evidence of desiccation or prolonged periods of drought are absent within the deposits and climate was probably relatively humid. Channel deposits in the lower sequence reflect mixed-load, braided fluvial systems with stable channel banks and floodplains, and the gradient appears to have been low to moderate. These features are generally considered favourable for the establishment of meandering river systems, but channels, nevertheless, retained an overall braided character and their deposits show no evidence of meandering. Despite indications of a climatic setting without significant periods of drought sediments indicate that large fluctuations in discharge occurred within the mixed-load streams and this is suggested to be the main cause for the absence of meandering. The swift and rather dramatic response of the fluvial systems to changes in precipitation, probably resulted from rapid runoff rates caused by the absence of vegetation. The upper sequence shows an initial return to shallow, sandy braided river deposition recording little available accommodation space. A subsequent increase in the rate of generated accommodation space is indicated by the presence of alternating sheet sandstones and sand-streaked mudstones with abundant desiccation cracks. The sheet sandstones show evidence of high-energy, unconfined ephemeral fluvial flash-flood deposition, while the mudstones are interpreted to represent muddy floodplain deposits. The change in fluvial style, combined with the widespread evidence of desiccation, suggest an evolution towards a more semi-arid climate in the upper sequence. This climatic change could account for the reduced clastic input seen in the overlying marine succession which culminated in carbonate platform deposition. The present study suggests that even under conditions considered favourable for the formation of meandering streams, these will rarely occur in Proterozoic deposits due to the lacking influence of vegetation. Although meandering deposits cannot be ruled out as having formed in pre-vegetational times, the conditions for their formation appear to have been even more restricted than previously realised.  相似文献   

Preservation of pre-vegetational mixed fluvio–aeolian deposits in a humid climatic setting: an example from the Middle Proterozoic Eriksfjord Formation, Southwest Greenland     

Henrik Tirsgaard  Ingrid E. I. xnevad 《Sedimentary Geology》1998,120(1-4):295-317

Sedimentological studies of a 30 m thick coastal cliff section within the Middle Proterozoic Eriksfjord Formation in western South Greenland reveals three distinct types of fluvial sand sheet deposits that reflect perennial streams (Type I), semi-perennial streams (Type II), and ephemeral flash floods (Type III). Perennial river sand sheets are characterised by co-sets of medium-scale trough cross-beds, interbedded with isolated medium- and large-scale, high-angle, tabular cross-beds. Indications of desiccation or subaerial exposure are absent. Semi-perennial fluvial sand sheets consist predominantly of low-angle cross-beds, interbedded with isolated sets of high-angle tabular cross-beds with common reactivation surfaces. Horizontal lamination and climbing ripple lamination form subordinate structures. Associated with the sand sheets are adhesion structures and 0.05–0.4 m thick sets of wind ripple-lamination indicating periods of subaerial exposure and aeolian reworking. High-energy ephemeral flash flood sand sheets consist almost exclusively of planar-parallel lamination and climbing ripple lamination with some isolated sets of low-angle cross-bedding. Scouring and internal truncation surfaces are common. The three types of sand sheets are considered to reflect deposition under changing climatic conditions, varying from humid to arid or semi-arid. Aeolian deposits are preserved within the sand sheets showing characteristics of dominantly perennial flow punctuated by shorter periods of desiccation (Type II), while sand sheets showing features typical of arid and or semi-arid flow conditions (Type III) contain no preserved aeolian deposits. This selective preservation is interpreted to be a result of the combined effect of groundwater table level and fluvial style which in turn are inferred to have been controlled by the climatic regime. The deposits show that during pre-vegetational times the preservation of aeolian deposits, under certain conditions, may be more optimal in fluvial systems formed in a humid climate than in fluvial systems formed under semi-arid or arid circumstances. The occurrence of aeolian deposits within a Precambrian succession of fluvial deposits therefore, need not be an indication of the most arid environmental conditions.  相似文献   

On the global structure of self-gravitating discs for softened gravity     

Jesper Sommer-Larsen  Henrik Vedel  & Uffe Hellsten 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,294(3):485-488

The effects of gravitational softening on the global structure of self-gravitating discs in centrifugal equilibrium are examined in relation to hydrodynamical/gravitational simulations. The one-parameter spline softening proposed by Hernquist & Katz is used.
It is found that if the characteristic size of a disc, r , is comparable to or less than the gravitational softening length, ε, then the cross-section of the simulated disc is significantly larger than that of a no-softening (Newtonian) disc with the same mass and angular momentum.
We demonstrate, furthermore, that if r ≲ε/2 then the scaling relation r ∝ε^3/4 holds for a given mass and specific angular momentum distribution with mass. Finally, we compare some of the theoretical results obtained in this paper and a previous one with the results of numerical Tree-SPH simulations and find qualitative agreement.  相似文献   

OH incorporation in nearly pure MgAl₂O₄ natural and synthetic spinels     

Davide Lenaz  Henrik Skogby  Francesco Princivalle 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2008,72(2):475-479

Four nearly pure MgAl₂O₄ spinels, of both natural and synthetic occurrence, have been studied by means of X-ray single crystal diffraction and FTIR spectroscopy in order to detect their potential OH content. Absorption bands that can be assigned to OH incorporated in the spinel structure were only observed in spectra of a non-stoichiometric synthetic sample. The absorption intensity of two bands occurring at 3350 and 3548 cm⁻¹ indicate an OH content of 90 ppm H₂O. Based on correlations of OH vibrational frequencies and O-H?O distances, the observed absorption bands correspond to O-H?O distances of 2.77 and 2.99 Å, respectively, which is close to the values obtained by the structure refinements for ^VIO-O_unsh (2.825 Å) and ^IVO-O (3.001 Å). This indicates that one probable local position for hydrogen incorporation is the oxygens coordinating a vacant tetrahedral site. The present spectra demonstrate that the detection limit for OH in Fe-free spinels is in the range 10-20 ppm H₂O. However, at appreciable Fe²⁺ levels, the detection of OH bands becomes hampered due to overlap with strong absorption bands caused by electronic d-d transitions in Fe²⁺ in the tetrahedral position.  相似文献   

A meta-analysis of the status of ICES fish stocks during the past half century   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Sparholt  Henrik; Bertelsen  Mette; Lassen  Hans 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):707-713

  相似文献