The Inclusion of Stakeholder Knowledge and Perspectives in Integrated Assessment of Climate Change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Penny Kloprogge  Jeroen P. Van Der Sluijs 《Climatic change》2006,75(3):359-389

Over the past few decades Integrated Assessment (IA) has emerged as an approach to link knowledge and action in a way that is suitable to accommodate uncertainties, complexities and value diversities of global environmental risks. Responding to the complex nature of the climate problem and to the changing role of climate change in the international climate policy process, the scientific community has started to include stakeholder knowledge and perspectives in their assessments. Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is in its early stage of development. Methodology varies strongly across PIA projects. This paper analyzes four recent IA projects of climate change that included knowledge or perspectives from stakeholders in one-way or another. Approaches and methods used turn out to differ in whether stakeholders are involved actively or passively, whether the approach is bottom-up or top-down, and whether the different functions in the IA process are open or closed to stakeholder input. Also, differences can be seen in the degree to which boundaries are pre-set that limit the roles and domains of competencies attributed to each scientific or non-scientific participant (so-called boundary work). The paper discusses pros and cons of the various approaches identified, and outlines heuristics and considerations to assist those who plan, design or fund new IA processes with stakeholder input on what approaches best to choose in view of the objectives for stakeholder involvement, in view of the role that the IA plays in the overall risk management process and in view of considerations regarding boundary work.  相似文献   

The Belgian sandy beach ecosystem: a review     

Jeroen Speybroeck  Dries Bonte  Wouter Courtens  Tom Gheskiere  Patrick Grootaert  Jean-Pierre Maelfait  Sam Provoost  Koen Sabbe  Eric W. M. Stienen  Vera Van Lancker  Wouter Van Landuyt  Magda Vincx  & Steven Degraer 《Marine Ecology》2008,29(S1):171-185

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Macrofauna along the Sudanese Red Sea coast: potential effect of mangrove clearance on community and trophic structure          下载免费PDF全文

Rasha A. O. Sabeel  Jeroen Ingels  Ellen Pape  Ann Vanreusel 《Marine Ecology》2015,36(3):794-809

Mangroves along the Sudanese Red Sea coast are under constant anthropogenic pressure. To better understand the influence of mangrove clearance on the intertidal benthic community, we investigated the composition, biodiversity and standing stock of the macrofauna communities at high‐, mid‐ and low‐water levels in three contrasting habitats: a bare sand flat, a cleared mangrove and an intact mangrove. In addition, a community‐wide metric approach based on taxon‐specific carbon and nitrogen isotope values was used to compare the trophic structure between the three habitats. The habitats differed significantly in terms of macrofaunal standing stock, community composition and trophic structure. The high‐ and mid‐water levels of the intact mangroves showed a distinct macrofaunal community characterized by elevated densities and biomass, largely governed by higher decapod and gastropod abundances. Diversity was similar for cleared and intact mangroves, but much lower for the bare sand flat. Community‐wide metrics indicated highest trophic diversity and community niche breadth in the intact mangroves. Differences between the cleared and intact mangroves can be partly attributed to differences in sediment characteristics resulting from mangrove clearance. These results suggest a significant impact of mangrove clearance on the macrofaunal community and trophic structure. This study calls for further investigations and management actions to protect and restore these habitats, and ensure the survival of this ecologically valuable coastal ecosystem.  相似文献   

Mortality by cause of death in Colombia: a local analysis using spatial econometrics     

Spijker  Jeroen  Recaño  Joaquín  Martínez  Sandra  Carioli  Alessandra 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2021,23(2):161-207

Journal of Geographical Systems - Colombia is undergoing major changes in mortality patterns. National- and department-level cause-specific analyses have previously been carried out, but very...  相似文献   

ESR dating of tooth enamel in Mousterian layer 20, El Castillo,Spain     

Jonathan J. Liberda  Jeroen W. Thompson  W. Jack Rink  Federico Bernaldo de Quirs  Rohit Jayaraman  Kailash Selvaretinam  Kerry Chancellor‐Maddison  Vito Volterra 《Geoarchaeology》2010,25(4):467-474

Nine faunal teeth from layer 20 of El Castillo cave in Cantabrian Spain were dated using electron spin resonance (ESR). Two teeth were rejected due to inconsistent subsample ages, while the remaining teeth yielded a mean age that is consistent with the stratigraphic expectations: 42.7±3.5. Uncertainty in the external γ dose rate results in a potential systematic uncertainty of±6.4ka that should affect all samples equally. The results provide independent confirmation of previously reported ¹⁴C ages for layer 20. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   

Sedimentology,three‐dimensional geobody reconstruction and carbon dioxide origin of Pleistocene travertine deposits in the Ballık area (south‐west Turkey)          下载免费PDF全文

Hannes Claes  Jeroen Soete  Koen Van Noten  Hamdy El Desouky  Marcelle Marques Erthal  Frank Vanhaecke  Mehmet Özkul  Rudy Swennen 《Sedimentology》2015,62(5):1408-1445

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Climate change,income and happiness: An empirical study for Barcelona   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Filka Sekulova  Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1467-1475

The present article builds upon the results of an empirical study exploring key factors which determine life satisfaction in Barcelona. Based on a sample of 840 individuals we first look at the way changes in income, notably income reductions, associated with the current economic situation in Spain, affect subjective well-being. Income decreases which occur with respect to one year ago have a negative effect on happiness when specified in logarithmic terms, and a positive one when specified as a dummy variable (and percentage change). The divergence in results is discussed and various explanations are put forward. Both effects are however temporary and do not hold for a period longer than a year, probably for reasons of adaptation and a downward adjustment of reference consumption and income levels. Next, we examine the implications of experiencing forest fires and find a lasting negative effect on life satisfaction. Our results suggest that climate policy need not reduce happiness in the long run, even when it reduces income and carbon-intensive consumption. Climate policy may even raise life well-being, if accompanied by compensatory measures that decrease formal working hours and reference consumption standards, while maintaining employment security.  相似文献   

Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Brenden Jongman  Philip J. Ward  Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):823-835

Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework.  相似文献   

A very rare triple-peaked type-I X-ray burst in the low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1636−53     

Guobao Zhang  Mariano Méndez  Diego Altamirano  Tomaso M. Belloni  Jeroen Homan 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,398(1):368-374

We have discovered a triple-peaked X-ray burst from the low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) 4U 1636−53 with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer ( RXTE ). This is the first triple-peaked burst reported from any LMXB using RXTE , and it is only the second burst of this kind observed from any source. (The previous one was also from 4U 1636−53, and was observed with EXOSAT .) From fits to time-resolved spectra, we find that this is not a radius-expansion burst, and the same triple-peaked pattern seen in the X-ray light curve is also present in the bolometric light curve of the burst. Similar to what was previously observed in double-peaked bursts from this source, the radius of the emitting area increases steadily during the burst, with short periods in between during which the radius remains more or less constant. The temperature first increases steeply, and then decreases across the burst also showing three peaks. The first and last peak in the temperature profile occur, respectively, significantly before and after the first and last peaks in the X-ray and bolometric light curves. We found no significant oscillations during this burst. This triple-peaked burst, as well as the one observed with EXOSAT and the double-peak bursts in this source, all took place when 4U 1636−53 occupied a relatively narrow region in the colour–colour diagram, corresponding to a relatively high (inferred) mass-accretion rate. No model presently available is able to explain the multiple-peaked bursts.  相似文献   

Global impact of a climate treaty if the Human Development Index replaces GDP as a welfare proxy     

Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh 《Climate Policy》2018,18(1):76-85

This study explores the implications of shifting the narrative of climate policy evaluation from one of costs/benefits or economic growth to a message of improving social welfare. Focusing on the costs of mitigation and the associated impacts on gross domestic product (GDP) may translate into a widespread concern that a climate agreement will be very costly. This article considers the well-known Human Development Index (HDI) as an alternative criterion for judging the welfare effects of climate policy. We estimate what the maximum possible annual average increase in HDI welfare per tons of CO₂ would be within the carbon budget associated with limiting warming to 2°C over the period 2015–2050. Emission pathways are determined by a policy that allows the HDI of poor countries and their emissions to increase under a business-as-usual development path, while countries with a high HDI value (>0.8) have to restrain their emissions to ensure that the global temperature rise does not exceed 2°C. For comparison, the well-known multi-regional RICE model is used to assess GDP growth under the same climate change policy goals.

Policy relevance

This is the first study that shifts the narrative of climate policy evaluation from one of GDP growth to a message of improving social welfare, as captured by the HDI. This could make it easier for political leaders and climate negotiators to publicly commit themselves to ambitious carbon emission reduction goals, such as limiting global warming to 2°C, as in the (non-binding) agreement made at COP 21 in Paris in 2015. We find that if impacts are framed in terms of growth in HDI per t CO₂ emission per capita instead of in GDP, the HDI of poor countries and their emissions are allowed to increase under a business-as-usual development path, whereas countries with a high HDI (>0.8) must control emissions so that global temperature rise remains within 2°C. Importantly, a climate agreement is more attractive for rich countries under the HDI than the GDP frame. This is good news, as these countries have to make the major contribution to emissions reductions.  相似文献