Variations in the sensitivity of the optically stimulated luminescence from quartz in the Xifeng section: A spatiotemporal comparison across the Chinese Loess Plateau since the last interglaciation     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2022

The sensitivity of the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) from quartz is thought to be mainly influenced by source rock (crystallization temperature and quartz defect types) and depositional history (irradiation/bleaching cycles). In this study, the OSL sensitivity of quartz of different grain sizes from loess (L1) and paleosol (S1) layers at the Xifeng section of the Chinese Loess Plateau was analyzed. The OSL sensitivity of the samples from the Xifeng section shows a distinct difference between glacial and interglacial cycles, which is consistent with the patterns observed from magnetic susceptibility (MS) and grain sizes. The highest OSL sensitivity is observed in S1, which is twelve times the lowest sensitivity observed in L1. Moreover, the contribution of the fast component of quartz OSL from the paleosol accounts for more than 90% of the total OSL signal. In contrast, the middle and slow components contribute more in loess, and a significant variation among different aliquots was observed.Comparison of the data obtained from loess sections from different regions, including Xifeng, Luochuan, Jingyuan and Shimao, show significant differences in the magnitudes of OSL sensitivity but a similar pattern between glacial and interglacial periods. The results of this study suggest that, except for the wildfire model proposed to interpret the high OSL sensitivity in paleosol (Zhang, 2018), the shift of wind pattern of westerly wind (i.e., transporting “dim” source from North Tibetan Plateau and northwesterly wind (i.e., transporting “bright” source from Alxa Arid Lands and the subsequent mixture from the different sources may partially contribute to the different OSL sensitivities observed for Xifeng and Luochuan. In contrast, the OSL sensitivity of Shimao samples from L1 was affected by the input from the Mu Us Desert, and those of Jingyuan may affected by the contribution from the Yellow River.  相似文献   

土壤水分对土壤参数的敏感性及其参数优化方法研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

张添  黄春林  沈焕锋 《地球科学进展》2012,27(6):678-685

利用2008年1月1日至2009年9月31日黑河流域阿柔冻融观测站的气象和土壤水分数据,采用基于方差的多参数敏感性分析方法研究通用陆面模型(Common Land Model,CoLM)模拟的土壤水分对土壤质地(砂土和黏土)的敏感性,进而采用SCE-UA参数优化算法分别优化土壤质地和土壤水力参数,分析不同优化策略对土壤水分模拟结果的影响。研究结果表明,浅层土壤水分对土壤质地较为敏感,敏感性系数达到了0.45以上,并且砂土含量对土壤水分的影响更为显著;利用SCE-UA算法优化土壤质地或土壤水力参数都可以有效地提高土壤水分的模拟精度,优化土壤水力参数易产生"异参同效"现象,而优化土壤质地能够使土壤水力参数的取值范围更加合理。  相似文献   

Sensitivity analysis of support safety factor for predicting the effects of contributing parameters on roof falls in underground coal mines   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

S.K. Palei  S.K. Das 《International Journal of Coal Geology》2008,75(4):241-247

Roof falls accounted for 18.18% of all fatal accidents in Indian coal mines, contributing about 35.29% of all fatal accidents in below-ground operations in 2005. The support safety factor, always preferred in support planning and design of underground coal mines, may be an important predictor for roof falls. In this paper, geotechnical data were collected from 14 roof fall incident places in an underground coal mine, located in the Eastern India, which has bord and pillar method of workings. The mean value of probabilistic support safety factor for the case study mine was found to be 1.24. However, the probability, of the estimated support safety factor of less than or equal to one, was found to be 0.246. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to analyze the effects of the contributing parameters on support safety factor and the likelihood of the roof fall. The multi-variate regression analysis was carried out for the data generated by Monte Carlo method to correlate the contributing factors to support safety factor. It ranked gallery width as the first parameter to control the support safety factor.  相似文献   

基于CMIP5模式的中国气候变化敏感性预估与分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

梁玉莲  韩明臣  延晓冬  赖雨薇 《气象科学》2016,36(2):158-164

以CMIP5提供的26个全球气候系统模式的温度和降水数据为基础,采用区域气候变化指数(Regional Climate Change Index,RCCI)分析中国的不同区域对21世纪气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明,三种排放情景(RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 8.5)下,21世纪全期,气候变化最敏感的区域分布在西藏地区,其次为我国西北地区以及东北地区,气候变化敏感性最低的区域分布在我国内蒙古中东部、华北地区以及长江中下游一带,且高排放情景对应更高的气候变化敏感性。对RCCI指数贡献因子分析结果表明,对中国气候变化敏感性贡献的大小依次为Δσ_TΔσ_pΔRRWAF。冬夏两季温度变化的大值区与RCCI指数的大致区分布一致,RCCI大小的分布很大程度上由温度变化的敏感性决定。而夏季降水变化的大值区主要出现在西藏地区、华南地区和东北地区,冬季降水变化的大值区则主要出现在黄河以南长江以北的中原地区以及东北地区。  相似文献   

Robustness of the holistic seismic risk evaluation in urban centers using the USRi   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Mabel-Cristina Marulanda  Omar D. Cardona  Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(3):501-516

The Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) published in a previous article (Carreño et al., Nat Hazards 40:137–172, 2007) is a composite indicator that measures risk from an integrated perspective and guides decision-making for identifying the main interdisciplinary factors of vulnerability to be reduced or intervened. The first step of the method is the evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as a result of the convolution of the seismic hazard with the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects is also considered (soft approach). According to this procedure, the physical risk index is evaluated for each unit of analysis from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by multiplying the former index by an impact factor using an aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. The USRi has been developed using the underlying holistic and multi-hazard approach of the Urban Risk Index framework proposed for the evaluation of disaster risk in different megacities worldwide. This article presents the sensitivity analysis of the index to different parameters such as input data, weights and transformation functions used for the scaling or normalization of variables. This analysis has been performed using the Monte Carlo simulation to validate the robustness of this composite indicator, understanding as robustness how the cities maintain the ranking as well as predefined risk level ranges, when compared with the deterministic results of risk. Results are shown for different cities of the world.  相似文献   

The impact of freshwater discharges on the ocean circulation in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area. Part II: energy analysis     

Jon Albretsen 《Ocean Dynamics》2007,57(4-5):287-304

We perform eddy-permitting to eddy-resolving simulations of the Skagerrak/northern North Sea with a terrain-following numerical ocean model. We demonstrate that realistic representations of freshwater input are not required when the focus is on modelling mesoscale structures such as meanders and eddies. To arrive at this conclusion, we analyze the results using a recently developed energy diagnostic scheme to study the sensitivity to realistic representations of the lateral freshwater flux provided to the area from the Baltic Sea and by the major rivers. The scheme is suitable for analysis of growth of instabilities, and it has four basic instability processes prominent. We recognize both horizontal and vertical shear instabilities. There are two processes where average potential energy is converted to eddy kinetic energy, and they are related to the mean gradient in surface elevation and the mean lateral density gradient, respectively. The latter process is known as frontal instability. We demonstrate that the change in the eddy kinetic energy field is small, despite the large variations in the hydrographic properties from experiment to experiment. Moreover, generation of eddy activity appears at the same locations and with approximately the same strength regardless of actual representations of freshwater input. Furthermore, we find that vertical shear instability dominates the energy conversion processes in the Norwegian Coastal Current. Finally, we find that the areas off the northwest coast of Denmark recognized with enhanced eddy kinetic energy level is not caused by instability processes but eddy–eddy interaction rooted in variations in the sea level.  相似文献   

Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Western Liguria (North Western Italy): A first attempt towards the understanding and quantification of hazard uncertainty     

Simone Barani  Daniele Spallarossa  Paolo Bazzurro  Claudio Eva   《Tectonophysics》2007,435(1-4):13-35

The use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses often involves a large number of branches that reflect the uncertainty in the selection of different models and in the selection of the parameter values of each model. The sensitivity analysis, as proposed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817], is an efficient tool that allows the construction of logic trees focusing attention on the parameters that have greater impact on the hazard.In this paper the sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify the parameters that have the largest influence on the Western Liguria (North Western Italy) seismic hazard. The analysis is conducted for six strategic sites following the multi-parameter approach developed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817] and accounts for both mean hazard values and hazard values corresponding to different percentiles (e.g., 16%-ile and 84%-ile). The results are assessed in terms of the expected PGA with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock conditions and account for both the contribution from specific source zones using the Cornell approach [Cornell, C.A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606] and the spatially smoothed seismicity [Frankel, A., 1995. Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21]. The influence of different procedures for calculating seismic hazard, seismic catalogues (epicentral parameters), source zone models, frequency–magnitude parameters, maximum earthquake magnitude values and attenuation relationships is considered. As a result, the sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the parameters with higher influence on the hazard. Only these parameters should be subjected to careful discussion or further research in order to reduce the uncertainty in the hazard while those with little or no effect can be excluded from subsequent logic-tree-based seismic hazard analyses.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the Urban Tile in MOSES using Surface Energy Balance Observations     

M. J. Best  C. S. B. Grimmond  Maria Gabriella Villani 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,118(3):503-525

The UK Met Office has introduced a new scheme for its urban tile in MOSES 2.2 (Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme version 2.2), which is currently implemented within the operational Met Office weather forecasting model. Here, the performance of the urban tile is evaluated in two urban areas: the historic core of downtown Mexico City and a light industrial site in Vancouver, Canada. The sites differ in terms of building structures and mean building heights. In both cases vegetation cover is less than 5%. The evaluation is based on surface energy balance flux measurements conducted at approximately the blending height, which is the location where the surface scheme passes flux data into the atmospheric model. At both sites, MOSES 2.2 correctly simulates the net radiation, but there are discrepancies in the partitioning of turbulent and storage heat fluxes between predicted and observed values. Of the turbulent fluxes, latent heat fluxes were underpredicted by about one order of magnitude. Multiple model runs revealed MOSES 2.2 to be sensitive to changes in the canopy heat storage and in the ratio between the aerodynamic roughness length and that for heat transfer (temperature). Model performance was optimum with heat capacity values smaller than those generally considered for these sites. The results suggest that the current scheme is probably too simple, and that improvements may be obtained by increasing the complexity of the model.  相似文献   

Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Marijke Huysmans  Tamás Madarász  Alain Dassargues 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(2):180-193

This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results.  相似文献   

Assessment of regional karstification degree and groundwater sensitivity to pollution using hydrograph analysis in the Velka Fatra Mountains, Slovakia     

Peter Malik 《Environmental Geology》2007,51(5):707-711

Hydrograph analyses of groundwater depletion process in the spring were used for estimation of karstification degree and groundwater sensitivity to pollution in the whole catchment area. Differences of individual depletion hydrographs enable assessment of the anticipated extent of absorption, attenuation and self-purification processes during the groundwater penetration through the rock environment between its infiltration and its outflow in the spring. The method was applied in the SW part of the Velka Fatra Mountains (Slovakia) “Tlsta” hydrogeological structure. In total, 209 individual recession curves from 20 gauged springs were analyzed. Depending on characteristic groundwater depletion hydrographs with independent sub-regimes, categories of groundwater sensitivity to pollution were defined. Finally, resulting sensitivities to pollution were linked to lithostratigraphical units in the area.  相似文献