2016下半年安达曼海潮、余流观测分析     

刘延亮  郭景松  王辉武  薛宇欢  KHOKIATTIWONG Somkiat  于卫东 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(9):13-21

The characteristics of currents and tidal currents in the Andaman Sea(AS) are studied during the second half of2016 using observed data from a moored acoustic Doppler current profiler(ADCP) deployed at 8.6°N, 95.6°E.During the observation period, the mean flow is 5–10 cm/s and largely southward. The root mean square and kinetic energies of the low and high frequency flows, which are divided by a cutoff period of 5 d, are at the same level, indicating their identical importance to the total current. A power spectrum analysis shows that intraseasonal oscillations, a tidal-related semilunar month signal, a semidiurnal tidal signal and periods of 3–4 d are prominent. The barocliny of an eddy kinetic energy is stronger than the mean kinetic energy, both of which are the strongest on the bottom and the weakest at 70 m depth. Residual currents are largely southward(northward) during the summer(winter) monsoon season. Two striking peaks of the southward flow cause the 80 d period of meridional currents. The first peak is part of a large-scale circulation, which enters the AS through the northern channel and exits through the southern channel, and the second peak is part of a local vortex. The 40 d oscillation of the zonal current is forced by geostrophic variations attributed to local and equatorial remote forcing. The tidal current is dominated by semidiurnal constituents, and among these, M2 and N2 are the top two largest major axes. Moreover, astronomical tidal constituents MM and MSF are also significant. Diurnal constituents are weak and shallow water tides are ignorable. The aims are to introduce the new current data observed in the AS and to provide initial insights for the tidal and residual currents in the Andaman Sea.  相似文献   

Analysis of nonstationarity in low flow in the Loess Plateau of China          下载免费PDF全文

Kun‐xia Yu  Lars Gottschalk  Xiang Zhang  Peng Li  Zhanbin Li  Lihua Xiong  Qian Sun 《水文研究》2018,32(12):1844-1857

An approach for nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis is developed and demonstrated on a dataset from the rivers on the Loess Plateau of China. Nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis has drawn significant attention in recent years by establishing relationships between low‐flow series and explanatory variables series, but few studies have tested whether the time‐varying moments of low flow can be fully described by the time‐varying moments of the explanatory variables. In this research, the low‐flow distributions are analytically derived from the 2 basic explanatory variables—the recession duration and the recession coefficient—with the assumption that the recession duration and recession coefficient variables follow exponential and gamma distributions, respectively; the derived low‐flow distributions are applied to test whether the time‐varying moments of explanatory variables can explain the nonstationarities found in the low‐flow variable. The effects of ecosystem construction measures, that is, check dam, terrace, forest, and grassland, on the recession duration and recession coefficient are further discussed. Daily flow series from 11 hydrological stations from the Loess Plateau are used and processed with a moving average technique. Low‐flow data are extracted following the pit under threshold approach. Six of the 11 low‐flow series show significant nonstationarities at the 5% significance level, and the trend curves of the moments of low flow are in close agreement with the curves estimated from the derived distribution with time‐dependent moments of the recession duration and time‐constant moments of the recession coefficient. It is indicated that the nonstationarity in the low‐flow distribution results from the nonstationarity in the recession duration in all 6 cases, and the increase in the recession duration is resulted from large‐scale ecosystem constructions rather than climate change. The large‐scale ecosystem constructions are found to have more influence on the decrease in streamflow than on the increase in watershed storage, thus resulting in the reduction of low flow. A high return period for the initial fixed design value decreases dramatically with an increasing recession duration.  相似文献   

BDS-3多频点伪距单点定位性能研究     

张乾坤  刘小生  何琦敏 《测绘通报》2020,(1):71-75

针对目前有关北斗三号系统伪距单点定位研究较少，未对三号系统多个频点的定位性能进行对比分析的现状，本文利用实测数据对三号系统多个频点的定位性能进行了研究，并联合BDS-2、Galileo进行了同频伪距单点定位试验，统计分析了组合定位多个频点的同频定位结果。试验结果表明：目前三号系统单独定位能力有限，不适合单独定位；BDS-3/Galileo同频组合定位可以弥补BDS-3新频点单频定位时卫星个数不足、数据不完整导致的定位精度过差的情况，同时能够提高Galileo的定位精度；BDS-2/3的B3I频点与BDS/Galileo组合的B2b频点的定位精度均与GPS的L1频点的定位精度相当。  相似文献   

基于频率匹配法的中国降水多模式预报订正研究          下载免费PDF全文

智协飞  吕游 《大气科学学报》2019,42(6):814-823

基于TIGGE资料中欧洲中期天气预报中心、日本气象厅、美国国家环境预报中心及英国气象局1～7 d日降水量预报以及中国自动站观测资料与CMORPH降水产品融合的逐时降水量网格数据集,利用频率匹配法(Frequency-Matching Method,FMM)对中国降水预报进行客观订正。首先利用卡尔曼滤波方法对降水频率进行调整,并根据不同区域降水强度差异将全国分为7个子区域分别进行频率匹配。结果表明,FMM可以有效减小降水量预报的误差。经过频率匹配法订正后各模式降水预报的平均绝对误差(Mean Absolute Error,MAE)大幅减小,且订正后各量级降水的雨区面积更加接近实际观测值。FMM对小于5 mm和大于15 mm的降水预报技巧改进明显。此外,FMM降低了模式预报的小雨空报率和大雨漏报率,并且明显提高了晴雨预报的准确率。FMM明显消除了大范围小雨空报区域,但是对强降水预报FMM仅能调整降水量大小,强降水落区预报并不能得到明显改善。  相似文献   

全国七大流域水文设计成果修订中若干关键技术问题探讨          下载免费PDF全文

翟媛  刘伟  赵学民 《水文》2018,38(4):92-96

为准确反映目前流域径流、洪水的实际情况,水利部组织完成了七大流域的水文设计成果修订工作。介绍了七大流域水文设计成果修订概况,总结分析了径流和洪水系列一致性处理、设计水文成果计算方法、成果合理性分析、修订成果应用等若干关键问题。重点阐述了洪水和径流系列的还原计算和考虑下垫面变化条件下的一致性修订问题,并对下一步修订成果的应用和研究重点提出了建议。  相似文献   

岩溶塌陷灾害的岩溶地下水气压力监测技术及应用   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

蒋小珍  雷明堂 《中国岩溶》2018,37(5):786-791

文章系统、全面地介绍了岩溶地下水气压力监测技术及其应用成果。该技术在监测成孔、孔口的密封及监测频率等方面创新性地提出了相关的工艺方法,能真实、及时且充分地反映出岩溶管道裂隙系统中的地下水气压力变化特点,可为岩溶塌陷的机理研究、监测和预警提供科学依据。岩溶地下水气压力监测技术工艺简单、操作方便、成本低廉,经过20多年的改进,已成功应用于全国11个典型岩溶塌陷区,服务于高铁、水源地、油气管线、市政建设等潜在岩溶塌陷风险性评价、安全降深、监测预警等方面,取得了很好的效果。   相似文献   

A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer     

Qiuming Yang 《地球科学进展》2018,33(4):385-395

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.  相似文献   

基于潮汐动态淹没过程的长江口潮滩地形信息反演研究     

章敏  吴文挺  汪小钦  孙玉 《地球信息科学学报》2022,24(3):583-596

潮滩是陆地与海洋之间重要的生态过渡地带,具有复杂的生态过程和重要的服务功能。受陆海交互作用及人类活动的影响,潮滩处于高度动态变化过程中,而传统测绘技术受到潮滩可达性影响无法快速获取潮滩地形信息。为解决潮滩高程数据获取困难的问题,本文提出一种基于潮汐动态淹没过程和时序遥感影像的潮滩地形信息提取算法,利用K-means++聚类方法实现水域提取,并通过时序淹没特征计算潮滩淹没频率提取潮滩范围信息,最终综合区域潮汐特征反演潮滩地形。研究以崇明东滩为例,利用2016—2020年所有可用Sentinel-2和Landsat-8时序遥感影像,实现潮滩范围提取与高程反演,并通过实测高程数据进行精度验证。研究结果表明,潮滩范围提取总体精度为97.73%,F1_score为0.98;高程反演平均绝对误差为0.15 m,潮滩高程的反演精度与可用影像的数量呈正相关。研究利用该算法进一步反演长江口地区主要潮滩地形特征,结果表明区域内潮滩面积为346.93 km²,高程范围为1.00~3.84 m,且与现有潮滩范围数据集相比,本研究提取的长江口潮滩范围更为完整。该算法为潮滩地形的快速反演提供了可能,对潮滩资源动态监测和管理具有重要意义。  相似文献   

Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Directly Affecting Guangdong Province:Prediction Based on LSTM-FC     

胡娅敏  陈韵竹  何健  刘圣军  闫文杰  赵亮  汪明圣  李芷卉  王娟怀  董少柔  刘新儒 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(1):45-56

Tropical cyclone (TC) annual frequency forecasting is significant for disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province. Based on the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed global sea surface temperature (SST) V5 data in winter, the TC frequency climatic features and prediction models have been studied. During 1951-2019, 353 TCs directly affected Guangdong with an annual average of about 5.1. TCs have experienced an abrupt change from abundance to deficiency in the mid to late 1980 with a slightly decreasing trend and a normal distribution. 338 primary precursors are obtained from statistically significant correlation regions of SST, sea level pressure, 1000hPa air temperature, 850hPa specific humidity, 500hPa geopotential height and zonal wind shear in winter. Then those 338 primary factors are reduced into 19 independent predictors by principal component analysis (PCA). Furthermore, the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and the Long Short-term Memory Networks and Fully Connected Layers (LSTM-FC) models are constructed relying on the above 19 factors. For three different kinds of test sets from 2010 to 2019, 2011 to 2019 and 2010 to 2019, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of MLR, GPR and LSTM-FC between prediction and observations fluctuate within the range of 1.05-2.45, 1.00-1.93 and 0.71-0.95 as well as the average absolute errors (AAEs) 0.88-1.0, 0.75-1.36 and 0.50-0.70, respectively. As for the 2010-2019 experiment, the mean deviations of the three model outputs from the observation are 0.89, 0.78 and 0.56, together with the average evaluation scores 82.22, 84.44 and 88.89, separately. The prediction skill comparisons unveil that LSTM-FC model has a better performance than MLR and GPR. In conclusion, the deep learning model of LSTM-FC may shed light on improving the accuracy of short-term climate prediction about TC frequency. The current research can provide experience on the development of deep learning in this field and help to achieve further progress of TC disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province.  相似文献   

GRAPES千米尺度模式在西南复杂地形区降水预报偏差与成因初探   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

谢漪云  王建捷 《气象学报》2021,79(5):732-749

利用2019年夏季（6—8月）西南复杂地形区地面观测站逐时和逐日降水量观测数据,从降水量和降水频率入手,对同期GRAPES-Meso 3 km业务模式短期（36 h以内）降水预报性能,特别是在不同典型地貌区—四川盆地子区、云贵高原北部子区和南部子区、青藏高原东缘山地子区的预报偏差进行细致评估与分析。结果表明:（1）GRAPES-Meso 3 km模式能合理地刻画出西南复杂地形区夏季日降水和日内尺度降水的主要特征,以及小时降水频次-强度的基本关系。（2）在各子区,模式日降水量（频率）预报表现为清晰的正偏差,正偏差在盆地子区最显著,为观测值的1.1倍（0.3倍）;日降水量正偏差主要由强降水日降水量预报偏大引起,但频率正偏差在云贵高原南、北子区与其他两个子区不同,主要是中小雨日数预报偏多的贡献;强降水（中小雨）落区预报存在明显（轻微）偏大倾向,强降水预报落区偏大频率在青藏高原东缘山地子区最高,达82.8%,在云贵高原南部子区最低,为53.6%。（3）日循环上,各时次小时降水量（频率）预报整体偏大,且主要正偏差出现在观测的夜雨峰值时段,其中海拔1200 m以下区域的降水频率正偏差从夜间峰值区延续到中午,模式偏强的日降水量预报往往表现为日内偏长的降水时长或小时降水空报。（4）诊断分析显示,模式在四川盆地区突出的夏季日降水预报正偏差是模式对流层低层在云贵高原南-东南侧偏强的西南风预报与西南地区特殊地形结合的产物。   相似文献