Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

František Gallovič  Johana Brokešová 《Journal of Seismology》2008,12(1):65-78

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability. We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M _w  = 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances <50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis.  相似文献   

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment I: numerical testing of methodological features   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

František Gallovič  Johana Brokešová 《Journal of Seismology》2008,12(1):53-64

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA, Wiemer, Geoph Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000), provided for California within the frame of the STEP project, is based on a methodology, two features of which are addressed in detail: (1) the parameters of Omori’s law and (2) application of attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity exceedence probability. Concerning the first point, we perform a simple parametric study. We assume the generalized Omori’s law by Shcherbakov et al. (Geoph Res Lett 31:L11613, 2004), in which characteristic time c scales with aftershock magnitude. The study shows that, among all the parameters, the hazard is most sensitive to the choice of m* (controlling the overall aftershock productivity) and least sensitive to the scaling of c. We also conclude that the hazard is mainly due to very early (less than 1 day) aftershocks. As regards the second point, we employ various attenuation relations from different tectonic areas to study their effect on the hazard analysis. We conclude that the resulting variations are relatively large, comparable to those obtained for varying m*.  相似文献   

Comparison of two different solutions to Molodensky’s G1 term     

M. Vaľko  M. Mojzeš  J. Janák  J. Papčo 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2008,52(1):71-86

The main purpose of this paper is comparison of two different approaches of solution to the Simple Molodensky’s Problem, the Molodensky’s Approach and the Analytical Continuation Approach, based on numerical computation. Although these approaches have been described theoretically by several authors, e.g. Molodensky et al. (1960), Heiskanen and Moritz (1967), Vaníček (1974), Moritz (1980) and Holota (1991, unpublished results) and theoretical proof of equivalence was given by Heiskanen and Moritz (1967), Moritz (1971), Ecker (1971) and Pellinen (1972, unpublished results), only very few practical experiences about the differences between particular solutions and computational efficiency exist. In this paper we compare the above two mentioned approaches in terms of the G₁-effect on quasigeoid. Both quasigeoid solutions are tested by the independent GPS/levelling approach and are also compared with the previous quasigeoid model of Slovakia where the G₁-term has been approximated using the classical terrain correction. The effect of the G₂-term is also numerically estimated, revealing that it might be significant for the precise quasigeoid determination. Some practical comments and recommendations are given at the end of the paper.  相似文献   

非线性弹性地基上矩形薄板的主参数共振   总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20  

杨志安  赵雪娟  席晓燕 《岩土力学》2005,26(12):1921-1925

分析非线性弹性地基上受参数激励小挠度矩形薄板的主参数共振问题,由冯卡门方程和伽辽金方法得到系统的非线性振动方程,它是杜分-马休型方程,应用非线性振动的多尺度法得到平均方程。数值计算结果表明：阻尼系数、地基系数、几何参数对主参数共振曲线影响明显。  相似文献   

强度和变形参数的变化对土工有限元计算的影响   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

王钊  陆士强 《岩土力学》2005,26(12):1892-1894

在土工问题的数值分析中,包含变形模量E、泊松比 两个变形参数的增量线弹性模型是一种常用的计算模型,研究和掌握E和 两个参数对土工有限元计算的影响有助于分析计算成果。首先,设想固定某一个参数而观察另一个参数变化对计算结果的影响;然后,说明用强度折减有限元法分析土坡稳定安全系数时,实际上已同时考虑了变形参数的影响。可采用剪应力? xy的等值线近似形成滑动面,滑动面单元的应力水平S等于1和特征点的位移发生突变共同作为失稳判据;最后,是用强度参数为纽带探讨这两个变形参数的互相变化关系,即E愈大,则土的强度愈大,? 愈小。  相似文献   

20世纪90年代中国城市时空变化特征——基于灯光指数CNLI方法的探讨   总被引：21，自引：3，他引：18  

卓莉  史培军  陈晋  一之瀬俊明 《地理学报》2003,58(6):893-902

用DMSP/OLS夜间平均灯光强度图像在区域上的扩展特征和聚集特征构建了一反映区域城市化综合水平的灯光指数CNLI (compounded night light index) , 并分别在省级和县级尺度上对CNLI与基于统计数据的城市化水平指数做了相关分析,结果表明CNLI与基于统计数据的城市化水平复合指数显著相关,最后用CNLI分析了中国省际城市化水平的时空特征。CNLI为客观、实时监测城市化水平的空间格局及其发展变化提供了新的指标和方法。  相似文献   

Winkler地基上材料非线性矩形薄板主参数共振-主共振研究     

杨志安  韩彦斌 《岩土力学》2006,27(Z2):733-738

研究Winkler地基上材料非线性矩形薄板的参数共振-主共振问题。建立Winkler地基上材料非线性矩形薄板的动力学方程。利用Galerkin方法将其转化为非线性振动方程。应用非线性振动的多尺度法求得系统满足主参数共振-主共振条件的近似解,并进行数值计算。分析激励、调谐值、阻尼系数、非线性参数、几何参数对共振响应曲线的影响。  相似文献   

构造带综放工作面支架异常压力机理探讨     

史红  姜福兴  李连祥 《岩土力学》2006,27(Z1):266-269

针对多个综放采场出现的支架立柱压爆、油缸变形等异常矿压显现,通过对综放采场上覆岩层的运动范围及运动特点、顶板结构动态稳定性的分析,探讨了综放工作面异常压力产生的机理。得出了顶板结构局部铰接失稳（滑落失稳）是造成异常压力主要原因的结论。由于滑落失稳的原因不同,可分为水浸蚀型、地质构造型和顶板失稳型。通过对综放采场支架作用力的分析,给出了计算异常压力的公式。利用顶板结构动态稳定性判断准则,可对异常压力的类型进行判别,从而进一步确定异常压力的计算方法,为采场支架选型和现场控制异常压力提供理论依据。  相似文献   

智能JRC测量仪的研制     

杜时贵  王小翠 《岩土力学》2006,27(Z1):1202-1204

研制了一种智能JRC测量仪,该仪器可直接测量岩体结构面的粗糙度系数JRC值,适用于野外任意产状的岩体结构面,可以沿任意方向测量岩体结构面粗糙度系数,具有重量轻、体积小、携带方便、操作简单、测量速度快等特点。  相似文献   

河西走廊张掖绿洲土地利用/土地覆盖变化特征   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

蒙吉军  吴秀芹  李正国 《地理学报(英文版)》2003,13(1):71-75

Taking two false color composite Landsat 5 TM(Thematic Mapper)images of band 4,3,2taken in 1995 and 2000 as data resources,this paper carried out study on LUCC of Zhanye oasis in recent five years by interpretation according to land resources classification system of 1∶00,000 Resources and Environmental Database of the Chinese Academy of sciences.The results show that great changes have taken place in landuse/landcover in Zhangye oasis since 1995:(1)Changes of landuse structure show that cropland and land for urban construction and built-up area increased,on the contrary,water area and grassland decreased.These changes reflect the deterionration of arrangement of water and land resources between the upper and lower reaches of the Heihe River.(2)Regional differences of landuse/landcover are evident,characterized by following aspects:in Sunan County located in Qilian Mountain area,unused land and grassland decreased,but cropland and land for urban construction and built-up area inreased.In Minle and Shandan counties located in foothills,unused land,warer area and cropland decreased,but grassland and land for urban construction and built-up area increased.In Zhangye City,Linze County and Gaotai County located in plain area of the middle reaches of the Heihe River,unused land,warer area and grassland decreased,while woodland,cropland and land for urban construction and buile-up area increased.  相似文献