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101.
102.
分别利用近震波形反演求解震源机制解的gCAP方法和全波形反演方法反演了鲁甸MS6.5地震的震源机制解,并比较两种方法的优点与特性。结果发现,数据方位角的覆盖范围会影响解的稳定性,在使用gCAP方法时尤其需要注意;两种方法获取的震源机制解结果较为一致,走向为73°~77°,倾角为72°~85°,滑动角为157°~180°。 相似文献
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Urban growth pattern modeling using logistic regression 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Transformation of land use/land cover change occurs due to the numbers and activities of people.Urban growth mod-eling has attracted substantial attention because it helps to comprehend the mechanisms of land use change and thus helps relevant policies made.This paper tends to apply logistic regression to model urban growth in the Jiayu county of Hubei province,China.It is applied in a GIS environment to calculate variables and,then,in SPSS to discover the relationships between urban growth and the driving forces.The relative operating characteristic(ROC) shows the modeling accuracy with the curve 0.891 with standard er-ror 0.001.A probability map is generated finally to predict where urban growth will occur as a result of the computation.The result shows the model simulates urban growth well in the county scale. 相似文献
106.
Characteristics of the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation anomalies in the reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River (YHR) were studied using EOF method. Four main precipitation pat-terns for the YHR in summer identified by the first two modes: a region-wide flood over the entire YHR (RWF); a region-wide drought over the entire YHR (RWD); a flood in the south with a drought in the northern region of the Yangtze River (FS-DN); and a drought in the south with a flood in the northern region of the Yangtze River (DS-FN). Based on the first two modes and the actual precipitation departure percentage, a new precipitation index is defined in this paper. The typical flood/drought years associated with the various rainfall patterns defined by this precipitation index are more representative and closer to reality compared to some existing precipitation indexes which just use the area-mean precipitation or the EOF time components individually. The characteristics of atmospheric circulation in summer corresponding to the four main precipitation patterns over the YHR in summer show the features of atmospheric circulation differ in different precipitation pattern years. Although the different patterns share a common main influential circulation system, such as the blocking high over northeastern Asia, the low trough of westerly flows in the mid latitudes, the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), and the high ridge over the Tibet Plateau, the difference in location and intensity of these systems can lead to different distributions of precipitation anomalies. 相似文献
107.
Distribution of AVS-SEM, transformation mechanism and risk assessment of heavy metals in the Nanhai Lake in China 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jiang He Changwei Lü Qingyun Fan Hongxi Xue Jinhua Bao 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,64(8):2025-2037
Distribution of AVS (acid volatile sulfide)-SEM (simultaneously extracted metals), transformation mechanism and risk assessment
of heavy metals in the Nanhai Lake in Baotou City were discussed in this work. The results showed that the content of heavy
metals in sediments increased due to the water pumped from the Yellow River, domestic sewage, municipal runoff and yacht waste
release. Increasing water depth, domestic sewage influx and hydrophyte booming made the AVS level higher in downstream than
upstream. The vertical distribution of AVS is characterized as multiple-peak in the sediment cores from the studied lake.
Comparatively, the control abilities of the carbonate and sulfate to the heavy metals were five orders of magnitude lower
than the sulfide phase. Therefore, AVS was the key factor controlling the precipitation of heavy metals in the Nanhai Lake.
The ratio of SEM/AVS in the sediments, the acute sediment quality criteria and the chronic sediment quality criteria indicated
that no acute toxicity for benthic organisms can be expected, and the AVS plays an important role in controlling the bioavailability
and toxicity of heavy metals in the Nanhai Lake. 相似文献
108.
采用欧拉方法分析盆地东北部夏季3例持续性暴雨过程的水汽输送及其异常特征,并利用拉格朗日轨迹模式模拟计算了影响川东北的主要水汽输送通道,结果表明:(1)不同纬度多系统相互作用对水汽输送的加强,是造成2007年和2010年两例持续性暴雨水汽强度异常大的重要原因。2012年持续性暴雨个例中异常水汽主要源于孟加拉湾和南海两支水汽的共同作用。(2)水汽源地可追溯至孟加拉湾、南海、西太平洋和阿拉伯海。边界层的水汽输送更多是自南海沿华南地区进入川东北;中低层水汽输送路径,或以孟加拉湾进入川东北,或以南海进入川东北,或两者共同作用。在垂直方向上,多条水汽输送通道的相互叠加,促使川东北产生强的水汽通量。(3)每条水汽输送通道在不同的个例中主次作用不一致。同一个例的水汽输送通道并非固定不变,不同降雨阶段可能与不同水汽输送通道对应。 相似文献
109.
一种由单值预报生成定量降水概率预报的方法及初步应用 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
利用1981年1月1日至2003年12月31日淮河流域59个站的降水观测及同时段美国GFS集合预报模式回算的24 h降水量集合平均预报资料,建立条件亚正态分布函数的概率预报模型并得到集成预报.针对淮河流域子流域的试验结果表明:新方法生成的集成预报的均方根误差在所有子流域和各个季节的误差都有显著降低,其中蚌埠至洪泽湖流域6月的均方根误差降低了3.11 mm.4个子流域通过该模型得到的集成预报的Brier技巧评分在0.16~0.61,说明该集成预报在整年都具有一定预报价值.在淮河上游大坡岭至息县流域,当实际日面雨量阈值为0.00~7.82 mm的预报时,夏季的集成预报出现不同程度的低报;但当实际日面雨量阈值为18.12 mm时,夏季的集成预报表现出较好的可靠性.百分位评估则进一步表明该集成预报能较好地预报出小量级的面雨量,而对30.00 mm以上面雨量的预报能力相对较弱. 相似文献
110.