基于GIS技术的地质灾害风险分析系统研究   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

朱良峰  殷坤龙  张梁  李闽 《工程地质学报》2002,10(4):428-433

地质灾害的社会经济属性决定了对其规律的研究应有别于传统的工程地质学研究 ,从社会属性方面来分析地质灾害具有更大的社会经济效益。地质灾害的危险性和受威胁对象的易损性是控制地质灾害风险评价的基本条件 ,对这两者的分析评价称作地质灾害危险性评价和社会经济易损性评价。GIS技术支持下的地质灾害风险分析代表着地质灾害研究领域的一个重要发展方向。经过多年研究 ,作者开发出了基于商业GIS软件的区域地质灾害风险分析系统 (RiskAnly)。本文介绍了该系统的设计思路、基本结构和工作过程 ,并利用此系统对我国全国范围的滑坡灾害进行了危险性分析、区域社会经济易损性分析和最终的风险评估。  相似文献   

An assessment of the risk from future eruptions of the Soufriere volcano of St. Vincent,West Indies     

Richard E. A. Robertson 《Natural Hazards》1995,11(2):163-191

The Soufriere volcano is a 1220 m high stratovolcano which occupies the northern part of the island of St. Vincent. It is one of the most active centres of volcanism in the Caribbean and has a record of activity dating back to the Pleistocene. Historic eruptions (since 1718) have caused over 1600 deaths and resulted in damage to property valued in excess of 4.8 million USD. In addition, current development plans for the area point towards increased risk of disastrous consequences from future activity at the volcano.All aspects of risk relevant to the volcano, are discussed, with particular emphasis on the manner in which these are perceived and on the question of acceptable risk. A method is presented for use in risk assessment of volcanic hazard and a number of risk zones are defined for the Soufriere volcano. Numerical estimates of the relative loss expected within each zone are obtained from a consideration of the value of property at risk, its vulnerability to the hazardous volcanic events and the expected spatial impact of volcanic events. Such estimates suggest that the northern-most third of the island is at least ten times more at risk than areas further south. The likelihood of death and destruction is extreme in such high risk areas, while the most feasible method of loss reduction is evacuation before an eruption occurs.Formerly at Department of Earth Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.  相似文献   

Risk analysis for clustered check dams due to heavy rainfall   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

Zuyu Chen  Xieping Huang  Shu Yu  Wei Cao  Weiqin Dang  Yangqiang Wang 《国际泥沙研究》2021,36(2):291-305

Check dams are commonly constructed around the world for alleviating soil erosion and preventing sedimentation of downstream rivers and reservoirs.Check dams are more vulnerable to failure due to their less stringent flood control standards compared to other dams.Determining the critical precipitation that will result in overtopping of a dam is a useful approach to assessing the risk of failure on a probabilistic basis and for providing early warning in case of an emergency.However,many check dams are built in groups,spreading in several tributaries in cascade forms,comprising a complex network.Determining the critical precipitation for dam overtopping requires a knowledge of its upstream dams on whether they survived or were overtopped during the same storm,while these upstream dams in turn need the information for their upstream dams.The current paper presents an approach of decomposing the dam cluster into(1)the heading dam,(2)border dams,and(3)intermediate dams.The algorithm begins with the border dams that have no upstream dams and proceeds with upgraded maps without the previous border dams until all the dams have been checked.It is believed that this approach is applicable for small-scale check dam systems where the time lag of flood routing can be neglected.As a pilot study,the current paper presents the analytical results for the Wangmaogou Check Dam System that has 22 dams connected in series and parallel.The algorithm clearly identified 7 surviving dams,with the remaining ones being overtopped for a storm of 179.6 mm in 12 h,which is associated with a return period of one in 200 years.  相似文献   

A case study of coping strategies and landslides in two villages of Central-Eastern Nepal     

Karen Sudmeier-Rieux  Stephanie Jaquet 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):680-690

Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal’s Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training.  相似文献   

Business case for mussel aquaculture in offshore wind farms in the North Sea     

《Marine Policy》2017

The European Blue Growth strategy aims to expand the new maritime sectors of aquaculture, energy, biotechnology, coastal tourism and mineral mining. Growth of these sectors will increases pressure on the seas, particularly on those areas that are densely used by traditional sectors such as fisheries and transport. This has triggered interest in developing multiuse of space and multiuse platforms at sea. This paper assesses the feasibility of offshore mussel production project in wind farms by design and ex-ante evaluation of a mussel aquaculture system in the North Sea. A system for mussel cultivation in the Dutch Borssele offshore wind farm was designed, producing both mussel seed and consumption-sized mussels with semi-submerged longlines. Based on the economic model and the risk assessment, this paper concludes that mussel aquaculture is an appealing commercial model for increased returns in offshore wind farms. The economic models shows that the internal rate of return and net present value are positive and based on the sensitivity analysis, it can be concluded that these results are robust.  相似文献   

Environmental management frameworks for offshore mining: the New Zealand approach     

《Marine Policy》2017

The New Zealand region contains untapped natural mineral, oil, and gas resources while also supporting globally unique and diverse faunal communities that need to be managed sustainably. In this paper key information from the international literature is reviewed that can underpin an Environmental Mining Management System which includes elements of Environmental Risk Assessment, Environmental Impact Assessment and Environmental Management Planning. This paper focuses on four developing areas of seafloor mining activities presently being undertaken or planned in the New Zealand region: hydrocarbons (oil and gas), minerals, ironsands and phosphorite nodules. A number of issues with the implementation of environmental management systems are identified including the difficulty of assessing new marine activities or technologies and the need for standardised reporting metrics. Finally, the development of ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning is discussed which will be required to enhance environmental mining management frameworks in New Zealand.  相似文献   

Anthropogenic threat assessment of marine-associated fauna in Spencer Gulf,South Australia     

《Marine Policy》2017

Assessing the vulnerability of species to [anthropogenic threats is an essential step when developing management strategies for wild populations. With industrial development forecasted to increase in Spencer Gulf, South Australia, it is crucial to assess the ongoing effects of anthropogenic threats to resident and migratory species. Expert elicitation was used to assess 27 threats against 38 threatened, protected, and iconic marine-associated species. Species and threat interactions were assessed individually, and as taxonomic or functional groups. Climate change had the greatest overall exposure (c.f. risk) across species, followed by disturbance, pollution, disease/invasive species, and fishing/aquaculture threats. The largest overall sensitivities (c.f. consequences) were pollution and disease/invasive species, followed by climate change, disturbance and fishing/aquaculture threats. Vulnerability scores (exposure x sensitivity) showed the climate change group posing the greatest overall threat in Spencer Gulf, with individual climatic threats ranking as three of the top four biggest threats to most animal groups. Noise, shipping, and net fishing were considered the greatest region-specific individual threats to marine mammals; as were trawl fishing, line fishing, and coastal activities to fish/cuttlefish; trawl fishing, line fishing, and net fishing to elasmobranchs; and oil spill, disease, and coastal activities to sea/shorebirds. Eighteen of the 20 highest vulnerability scores involved the short-beaked common dolphin, Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin, and Australian sea lion, highlighting the particular susceptibility of these species to specific threats. These findings provide a synthesis of key threats and vulnerable species, and give management a basis to direct future monitoring and threat mitigation efforts in the region.  相似文献   

Vulnerability of floating tunnel shafts for increasing earthquake loading     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2016

Fragility curves constitute the cornerstone in seismic risk evaluations and performance-based earthquake engineering. They describe the probability of a structure to experience a certain damage level for a given earthquake intensity measure, providing a relationship between seismic hazard and vulnerability. In this paper a numerical approach is applied to derive fragility curves for tunnel shafts built in clays, a component that is found in several critical infrastructure such as urban metro networks, airport facilities or water and waste water projects. The seismic response of a representative tunnel shaft is assessed using tridimensional finite difference non-linear analyses carried out with the program FLAC^3D, under increasing levels of seismic intensity. A hysteretic model is used to simulate the soil non-linear behavior during the seismic event. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the soil-structure system response is accounted for in the analyses. The damage is defined based on the exceedance of the concrete wall shaft capacity due to the developed seismic forces. The fragility curves are estimated in terms of peak ground acceleration at a rock or stiff soil outcrop, based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity. The proposed fragility models allows the characterization of the seismic risk of a representative tunnel shaft typology and soil conditions considering the associated uncertainties, and partially fill the gap of data required in performing a risk analysis assessment of tunnels shafts.  相似文献   

Qualification of residential land from the viewpoint of liquefaction vulnerability     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2016

While the assessment of liquefaction potential by using borehole data has a long history since 1970s, its target users are still limited to professional engineers and experts. This situation is not favored by ordinary people who are seriously concerned with the reliability and preservation of their real estates during strong earthquakes. The demand of the people is that the liquefaction vulnerability of their residential land is precisely and clearly but concisely demonstrated so that people without engineering background can understand the real extent of risk. In this regard, the authors, under the governmental support, proposed a simple manifestation of the extent of liquefaction vulnerability of private houses in terms of the thickness of the surface unliquefiable crust and the vertical weighted average of the factor of safety or its equivalence. This achievement was made possible by introducing the ageing effects of soil on liquefaction resistance in addition to using geotechnical data base of subsoil conditions. During the work, it was found that existing borehole data may not be fully reliable and that experts who have sufficient knowledge of the local subsoil should assess the vulnerability. This requirement is satisfied by the qualification of special engineers that has been initiated by the Japanese Geotechnical Society in conjunction with several other institutions. The proposed method of subsoil qualification is used not only for individual residential land but also for regional hazard assessment.  相似文献   

Polychlorinated biphenyl and organochlorine pesticide residues in surface sediments from the Mediterranean Sea (Egypt)     

《国际泥沙研究》2016,(1):44-52

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