Natural hazards in British Columbia: an interdisciplinary and inter-institutional challenge     

O. Slaymaker 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1999,88(2):317-324

 Although British Columbia experiences many natural hazards, there is as yet no unified policy to promote natural hazard management in the province. The problem is not in the quantity and quality of geoscience assessment of natural hazards, but instead, it is suggested, in the isolation of that work from broader risk perspectives and in the lack of clarity of division of responsibilities between various levels of government. The example of recent changes in perception of the terrain stability problem illustrates how natural hazard problems are driven by social and political priorities rather than by geoscience priorities. Received: 22 November 1998 / Accepted: 22 November 1998  相似文献   

岩体质量分级的风险分析方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

章杨松  罗国煜  李晓昭  阎长虹 《工程地质学报》2002,10(3):331-336

提出了基于RMR岩体质量分级系统的岩体质量研究风险分析方法。该方法分析步骤如下 :(1)通过岩芯样品的现场观测和实验室试验获得分类所需的变量 ;(2 )统计分析拟合得出各变量的分布函数及参数 ;(3)运用Monte Carlo模拟方法获得 2万个RMR值 ,并将结果绘成岩体质量描述图 ;(4)利用以上结果作出岩体质量风险分析评价。该方法用于润扬长江公路大桥岩体质量评价研究获得良好效果  相似文献   

Landslide risk assessment and management: an overview   总被引：29，自引：0，他引：29  

F.C DaiC.F Lee  Y.Y Ngai 《Engineering Geology》2002,64(1):65-87

Landslides can result in enormous casualties and huge economic losses in mountainous regions. In order to mitigate landslide hazard effectively, new methodologies are required to develop a better understanding of landslide hazard and to make rational decisions on the allocation of funds for management of landslide risk. Recent advances in risk analysis and risk assessment are beginning to provide systematic and rigorous processes to enhance slope management. In recent years, risk analysis and assessment has become an important tool in addressing uncertainty inherent in landslide hazards.This article reviews recent advances in landslide risk assessment and management, and discusses the applicability of a variety of approaches to assessing landslide risk. Firstly, a framework for landslide risk assessment and management by which landslide risk can be reduced is proposed. This is followed by a critical review of the current state of research on assessing the probability of landsliding, runout behavior, and vulnerability. Effective management strategies for reducing economic and social losses due to landslides are described. Problems in landslide risk assessment and management are also examined.  相似文献   

河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

胡国华  夏军  赵沛伦 《地理科学》2002,22(2):249-252

提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色－随机风险率概念，建立了水质超标灰色－随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中，将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率，即水质超标灰色－随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中，河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统，而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证，也即表明水体综合评价超标，最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。  相似文献   

Groundwater contamination: risk management and assessment for landfills in Mar del Plata, Argentina   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

E. Bocanegra  H. Massone  D. Martínez  E. Civit  M. Farenga 《Environmental Geology》2001,40(6):732-741

 This study presents a program for risk management in the contamination of groundwater resulting from leachate in landfills at Mar del Plata (Argentina). The program includes prediction, prevention, monitory observation and mitigation as actions that must be taken prior to, during, and after contamination occurs. This routine aids in the identification of weak points and failures of the program for those who are in charge of making decisions, and will allow better use of limited financial and technical resources based on planning, thus minimizing disconnected determinations. Results of the prediction stage were confirmed through monitoring. The presence of a plume of contamination more than 100 m from the landfill was shown, thus proving that implementation of a monitoring plan to follow the development of the contaminated plume must be implemented, particularly in populated areas which depend on residential wells for their water supply. Received: 8 May 2000 · Accepted: 14 August 2000  相似文献   

Seismic vulnerability of Kuwait and other Arabian Gulf countries: information base and research needs     

F. Bou-Rabee  E. VanMarcke 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2001,21(2):817

This paper points to the need for seismic risk and vulnerability assessment of infrastructure systems, most notably tall structures and coastal facilities, in Kuwait and other Arabian Gulf countries. Building codes in the region currently lack seismic provisions, despite evidence of a potential threat from large-magnitude earthquakes originating from the southern part of the Zagros fold belt. The historical record of Iranian earthquakes that may have caused significant ground motion in the Gulf region is examined, as are reports of coastal damage from tsunamis. Various specific tasks, expected to constitute research priorities of a Joint Center for Risk Research, a cooperative research program involving Princeton and Kuwait Universities, are outlined.  相似文献   

东昆仑活动断裂带的强震构造条件及未来强震危险区分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

张瑞斌  赵培林  陈玉华 《高原地震》1996,(3)

通过对东昆仑活动断裂带强震构造条件的研究发现，这条断裂带的强震构造条件不仅与所处的区域地壳运动状况有关，而且与该活动断裂带的规模、形态，断裂带的构造组合及断裂带的运动条件等密切相关。在研究了东昆仑活动断裂带强震构造条件的基础上，还沿断裂带划出了三个未来强震危险区。  相似文献   

区域地质灾害趋势预测理论与方法   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

殷跃平  李媛 《工程地质学报》1996,4(4):75-79

区域地质灾害趋势预测对于国家土地资源的合理开发利用和制定减灾防治对策具有重要意义。本文总结了区域地质灾害三个层次评估的理论与方法, 即基于自然属性的地质灾害研究、基于风险分析的地质灾害研究和基于信息-决策支持系统的地质灾害研究。作者认为, 运用GIS技术, 将这三层次的评价方法结合起来, 是进行区域地质灾害趋势预测的有效途径。本文最后介绍了1∶600万全国地质灾害趋势预测图编制的思路与成果。  相似文献   

Seismic risk of circum-pacific earthquakes I. Strain energy release   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kostas C. Makropoulos  Paul W. Burton 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1983,121(2):247-267

Commonly used earthquake “whole process” frequency - magnitude and strain energy - magnitude laws are merged to obtain an analytic expression for an upper bound magnitude to regional earthquake occurrenceM ₃, which is expressed primarily in terms of the annual maximum magnitudeM ₁ and the magnitude equivalent of the annual average total strain energy releaseM ₂. Values ofM ₃ are also estimated graphically from cumulative strain energy release diagrams. Both methods are illustrated by application to the high seismicity of the circum-Pacific belt, using Duda’s (1965) data and regionalisation. Values ofM ₃ obtained analytically, with their uncertainties, are in agreement with those obtained graphically. Empirical relations are then obtained betweenM ₁,M ₂, andM ₃, which could be of general assistance in regional seismic risk considerations if they are found to be of a universal nature. For instance.M ₃ andM ₂ differ by one magnitude unit in subregions of the circum-Pacific.  相似文献   

三峡工程建成后枯水期运行的气候风险研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

张建敏  吴金栋等 《应用气象学报》2001,12(2):218-225

通过蒙特卡罗试验, 探讨了三峡工程建成后枯水期运行风险的评估方法。以GCM模拟试验结果为未来气候情景, 随机模拟了三峡地区在该气候情景下枯水期月降水量分布; 建立了三峡地区月径流-降水模型和三峡水库调度模型; 初步分析了长江三峡工程建成后在当前气候背景和可能未来气候情景下的运行风险。结果表明, 三峡水库的运行对气候变化反应敏感, 春季和冬季的发电风险有明显改变。  相似文献