A multiscale modeling of damage and time‐dependent behavior of cohesive rocks     

A. Abou‐Chakra Guéry  F. Cormery  J. F. Shao  D. Kondo 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2009,33(5):567-589

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Numerical analysis of block stone displacements in ancient masonry structures: A new method to estimate historic ground motions     

Ronnie Kamai  Yossef H. Hatzor 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2008,32(11):1321-1340

An innovative approach is presented, in which the discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) method is used to estimate historic ground motions by back analysis of unique structural failures in archaeological sites. Two archaeological sites in Israel are investigated using this new approach and results are presented in terms of displacement evolution of selected structural elements in the studied masonry structure. The response of the structure is studied up to the point of incipient failure, in a mechanism similar to the one observed in the field. Structural response is found to be very sensitive to dynamic parameters of the loading function such as amplitude and frequency. Prior to back analysis of case studies, two validations are presented. Both compare the performance of DDA with analytical solutions and present strong agreement between the two. Using comprehensive sensitivity analyses, the most likely peak ground acceleration (PGA) and frequency that must have driven the observed block displacements are found for the two case studies—the Nabatean city of Mamshit and the medieval fortress of Nimrod in southern and northern Israel, respectively. It is found that horizontal peak ground accelerations (HPGA) of 0.5g and 1g were required to generate the observed deformations in Mamshit and Nimrod, respectively. Although these might seem too high, considering structural and topographic amplifications it is concluded that the analyses suggest ground motions of 0.2g at a frequency of 1.5 Hz for Mamshit and up to 0.4g at a frequency of 1 Hz for Nimrod. These values provide constraints on the seismic risk associated with these regions as appears in the local building code using a completely independent approach. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Comparison of AnnAGNPS and SWAT model simulation results in USDA‐CEAP agricultural watersheds in south‐central Kansas     

Prem B. Parajuli  Nathan O. Nelson  Lyle D. Frees  Kyle R. Mankin 《水文研究》2009,23(5):748-763

This study was conducted under the USDA‐Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) in the Cheney Lake watershed in south‐central Kansas. The Cheney Lake watershed has been identified as ‘impaired waters’ under Section 303(d) of the Federal Clean Water Act for sediments and total phosphorus. The USDA‐CEAP seeks to quantify environmental benefits of conservation programmes on water quality by monitoring and modelling. Two of the most widely used USDA watershed‐scale models are Annualized AGricultural Non‐Point Source (AnnAGNPS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The objectives of this study were to compare hydrology, sediment, and total phosphorus simulation results from AnnAGNPS and SWAT in separate calibration and validation watersheds. Models were calibrated in Red Rock Creek watershed and validated in Goose Creek watershed, both sub‐watersheds of the Cheney Lake watershed. Forty‐five months (January 1997 to September 2000) of monthly measured flow and water quality data were used to evaluate the two models. Both models generally provided from fair to very good correlation and model efficiency for simulating surface runoff and sediment yield during calibration and validation (correlation coefficient; R², from 0·50 to 0·89, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index, E, from 0·47 to 0·73, root mean square error, RMSE, from 0·25 to 0·45 m³ s^?1 for flow, from 158 to 312 Mg for sediment yield). Total phosphorus predictions from calibration and validation of SWAT indicated good correlation and model efficiency (R² from 0·60 to 0·70, E from 0·63 to 0·68) while total phosphorus predictions from validation of AnnAGNPS were from unsatisfactory to very good (R² from 0·60 to 0·77, E from ? 2·38 to 0·32). The root mean square error–observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) was estimated as excellent (from 0·08 to 0·25) for the all model simulated parameters during the calibration and validation study. The percentage bias (PBIAS) of the model simulated parameters varied from unsatisfactory to excellent (from 128 to 3). This study determined SWAT to be the most appropriate model for this watershed based on calibration and validation results. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于船舶走航拖曳观测的卫星遥感产品检验     

崔廷伟  张杰  王岩峰  范陈清  官晟 《海洋学报》2010,32(6):102-107

利用船载多参数拖曳式剖面测量系统走航观测获取的台湾岛东南海域叶绿素a浓度连续剖面数据,开展了卫星遥感产品精度检验研究。研究表明,由MERIS反演的叶绿素a浓度产品的平均相对误差优于30%,拖曳剖面观测可为卫星遥感产品检验提供高质量的现场观测数据,而且与船舶、浮标及其他固定平台等传统定点观测方式相比具有明显的效率优势。  相似文献   

An unsaturated soil model with minimal number of parameters based on bounding surface plasticity     

M. Morvan  H. Wong  D. Branque 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2010,34(14):1512-1537

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IAP94陆面过程模式在淮河流域的验证试验   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Yang Xiaosong  Lin Zhaohui  Dai Yongjiu  Guo Yufu 《大气科学进展》2001,18(1):139-154

利用ＩＡＰ９４陆面过程模式对淮河流域不同季节（春、夏、秋）、不同下垫面（旱地、森林、水田）进行了单点数值模拟试验，结果表明ＩＡＰ９４不但能较好地模拟出观测的地气间各种能量通量以及植被的冠层温度，同时还很好地模拟出整层土壤含水量的变化趋势，从而证实了ＩＡＰ９４陆面过程模式具有正确描述东亚半湿润季风区陆气相互作用的能力。另外比较结果还揭示了水田表面强烈蒸发作用的重要性，需要在陆过程模式中予以重视。  相似文献   

Calibration and validation of a model of forest disturbance in the Western Ghats,India 1920–1990     

Robert?Gilmore PontiusJr.Email author  Pablo?Pacheco 《GeoJournal》2004,61(4):325-334

This paper introduces a new statistical method that we recommend should become standard procedure to quantify the goodness-of-fit of calibration and validation for land-use change models. We present a multiple-resolution Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) that measures the goodness-of-fit between a reference map, which is considered reality, and a simulated map, which is a model’s output. This proposed ROC is based on: (1) multiple-resolutions, (2) soft classification, (3) sampling without replacement, and 4) explicit separation of factors of quantity versus location of land-use change. We illustrate the method with a case study in India’s Western Ghats, a biodiversity hotspot, where we have maps of cumulative forest disturbance for 1920 and 1990. We use a predictive modeling approach similar to GEOMOD in which we calibrate the model with the map of 1920, then predict the map of 1990, at which point we subject the model to validation. We show that the fit of calibration tends to be much larger than the fit of validation. Thus if a modeler assess a model by goodness-of-fit of calibration only, then the modeler will likely be over confident in the model’s predictive ability.  相似文献   

Experimental technique of calibration of symmetrical air pollution models     

P. Kumar 《Journal of Earth System Science》2005,114(5):565-571

Based on the inherent property of symmetry of air pollution models, a Symmetrical Air Pollution Model Index (SAPMI) has been developed to calibrate the accuracy of predictions made by such models, where the initial quantity of release at the source is not known. For exact prediction the value of SAPMI should be equal to 1. If the predicted values are overestimating then SAPMI is <1 and if it is underestimating then SAPMI is >1. Specific design for the layout of receptors has been suggested as a requirement for the calibration experiments. SAPMI is applicable for all variations of symmetrical air pollution dispersion models.  相似文献   

Simulation of surface energy fluxes using high-resolution non-hydrostatic simulations and comparisons with measurements for the LITFASS-2003 experiment     

Günther Heinemann  Michael Kerschgens 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,121(1):195-220

Land-surface heterogeneity effects on the subgrid scale of regional climate and numerical weather prediction models are of vital interest for the energy and mass exchange between the surface and the atmospheric boundary layer. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used to quantify these effects, and are a tool used to obtain area-averaged surface fluxes over heterogeneous land surfaces. We present high-resolution model simulations for the LITFASS area near Berlin during the LITFASS-2003 experiment, which were carried out using the non-hydrostatic model FOOT3DK of the University of Köln with horizontal resolutions of 1 km and 250 m. The LITFASS-2003 experimental dataset is used for comparison. The screen level quantities show good quality for the simulated pressure, temperature, humidity and wind speed and direction. Averaged over the four week experimental period, simulated surface energy fluxes at land stations show a small bias for the turbulent heat fluxes and an underestimation of the net radiation caused by excessive cloudiness in the simulations. For eight selected days with low cloud amounts, the net radiation bias is close to zero, but the sensible heat flux shows a strong positive bias. Large differences are found for latent heat fluxes over a lake, which are partly due to local effects on the measurements, but an additional problem seems to be the overestimation of the turbulent exchange under stable conditions in the daytime internal boundary layer over the lake. In the area average over the LITFASS area of 20 ×  20 km², again a strong positive bias of 70 W m^?2 for the sensible heat is present. For the low soil moisture conditions during June 2003, the simulation of the turbulent heat fluxes is sensitive to variations in the soil type and its hydrological properties. Under these conditions, the supply of ground water to the lowest soil layer should be accounted for. Different area-averaging methods are tested. The experimental set-up of the LITFASS-2003 experiment is found to be well suited for the computation of area-averaged turbulent heat fluxes.  相似文献   

Mapcurves: a quantitative method for comparing categorical maps   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

William W. Hargrove  Forrest M. Hoffman  Paul F. Hessburg 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2006,8(2):187-208

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