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31.
为比较中国探空观测与再分析气温的差异,利用中国118站850—30 hPa经质量控制和均一化处理后逐月气温和NCEPv1、NCEPv2、ERA-40、ERA-Interim、JRA55、20CR、MERRA和CFSR等8套再分析月平均气温,通过对比1981—2010年探空观测与多套再分析气温序列的平均偏差、相关系数、标准差和变化趋势,分析两者在数值、年际变率、离散度及长期变化的差异。结果表明,中国探空温度原始序列存在较为显著的非均一性,均一化对原始气温序列总体为负订正,对流层上层至平流层下层(200—100 hPa)订正值最为显著。均一化气温去除了原始序列中由仪器换型和系统升级等因素导致的系统误差,与再分析气温相关较原始序列明显提高。再分析气温与均一化气温偏差约1℃,多数再分析气温较均一化气温在对流层偏低、平流层偏高。再分析与均一化气温年际变率较为一致,正相关达到显著。多数再分析与均一化气温均在对流层中低层呈上升趋势、平流层中层呈下降趋势。对流层上层和平流层下层不确定性较大。总体上,ERA-Interim、JRA55和MERRA与其他再分析相比更相近中国均一化探空气温。 相似文献
32.
本文利用武汉大学的瑞利激光雷达的瑞利散射回波数据(30～65km)来研究武汉地区上空(30.5°N,114.4°E)重力波的活动规律和统计特性.通过对2003年12月到2005年3月观测的200h数据反演的密度进行处理分析,得到了重力波的一些个例特征,并提取垂直波长为2 km以上的重力波进行统计分析.结果表明,最可几的垂直波长是3～4 km和17～20 km,重力波振幅的月平均值在冬季有较大值,夏季值较小.与武汉2004年无线电探空仪的密度扰动提取到的重力波做比较,发现与瑞利激光雷达得到的重力波振幅的月平均值有很强的相关性,也是冬季值比较大,夏季值比较小.通过无线电探空仪的风场数据,本文还得到了急流的季节变化规律、最大风剪切年变化规律,发现急流和最大风剪切与激光雷达的重力波统计结果有很强的相关性. 相似文献
33.
A study is presented focusing on the potential value of parameters derived from radiosonde data or data from numerical atmospheric models for the forecasting of severe weather associated with convective storms. Parameters have been derived from soundings in the proximity of large hail, tornadoes (including tornadoes over water: waterspouts) and thunderstorms in the Netherlands. 66,365 radiosonde soundings from six stations in and around the Netherlands between 1 Dec. 1975 to 31 Aug. 2003 were classified as being associated or not associated with these weather phenomena using observational data from voluntary observers, the Dutch National Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and lightning data from the U.K. Met. Office. It was found that instability as measured by the Lifted Index or CAPE and 0–6 km wind shear independently have considerable skill in distinguishing environments of large hail and of non-hail-producing thunderstorms. It was also found that CAPE released below 3 km above ground level is on average high near waterspouts and weak tornadoes that mostly occur with low shear in the lowest 1 km above the Earth's surface. On the other hand, low-level shear is strong in environments of stronger (F1 and F2) tornadoes and increases with increasing F-scale. This is consistent with the notion that stretching of pre-existing vertical vorticity is the most important mechanism for the formation of weak tornadoes while the tilting of vorticity is more important with stronger tornadoes. The presented results may assist forecasters to assess the likelihood of severe hail or tornadoes. 相似文献
34.
The 20-year (1976-1995) daily radiosonde data at 17 stations in the tropical western Pacific was ana lyzed. The analysis shows that the atmosphere is more humid in a warmer climate on seasonal, inter-annual and long-term (20-year) time scales, implying a positive water vapor feedback. The vertical structure of the long-term trends in relative humidity (RH) is distinct from that on short-term (seasonal and inter-annual) time scales, suggesting that observed water vapor changes on short time scales could not be considered as a surrogate of long-term climate change. The increasing trend of RH (3%-5%/decade) in the upper troposphere is stronger than that in the lower troposphere (1%-2% / decade). Such vertical structure would amplify positive water vapor feedback in comparison to the common assumption of constant RH changes vertically. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of vertical structure of RH variations shows distinct features of the vertical structure of the first three EOFs. The first three EOFs are optimal for repre sentation of water vapor profiles and provide some hints on physical mechanisms responsible for observed humidity variability. Vaisala radiosondes were used at nine stations, and VIZ radiosondes used at other eight stations. The Vaisala data are corrected for temperature-dependence error using the correction scheme developed by NCAR / ATD and Vaisala. The comparison of Vaisala and VIZ data shows that the VIZ-measured RHs after October 1993 have a moist bias of ～ 10% at RHs ＜ 20%. During 1976-1995, several changes in cluding both instruments and reporting practice have been made at Vaisala stations and introduce errors to long-term RH variations. 相似文献
35.
利用美国国家气候数据研究中心开发的Pairwise均一性检验订正方法,加拿大环境研究中心开发的PMFT方法和PMT方法,结合20世纪再分析资料和详细的元数据信息对1951-2008年中国123个探空台站的温度资料进行均一性检验和订正。结果表明：3种方法对中国探空温度资料订正幅度和订正前后的趋势变化存在差异。产生差异的主要原因,一方面是由于Pairwise方法设计的问题,导致对中国大部分台站同时改变辐射误差订正方法和系统升级造成的断点检测能力较弱;另一方面是由于PMFT方法未使用参考序列,不能去除气候变化本身的变化趋势,导致PMFT方法在断点判断上存在漏判的现象。而PMT方法结合20世纪再分析资料的客观判断方法较适合中国探空资料的均一性检验和订正,其订正结果表明,利用该方法得到的中国探空温度数据的统计学特征在低层小于全球尺度探空温度的订正结果,而在高层基本和全球探空数据的订正尺度相当。两个间断点和0.0-0.2℃的订正量所占的比例最大。从全国的来看,对流层为增温趋势,这种增温趋势随高度的增加逐渐减弱,至对流层顶100 hPa转为弱的降温趋势。 相似文献
36.
在“超大城市垂直综合气象观测技术研究及实验”中,利用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的ERA Interim再分析数据集,对2018年北京观象台的地基导航卫星气象观测（GNSS/MET）、探空和微波辐射计观测的水汽总量（PWV）进行了对比分析,结果表明,3种观测和ECMWF模式分析具有较好的相关性,可以较好地监测北京水汽的变化。与ECMWF模式对比,GNSS/MET、探空和微波辐射计的偏差分别为0.54mm、1.94mm、-0.65mm,均方根误差分别为3.55mm、3.60mm、6.08mm;若以探空作为参考,GNSS/MET、ECMWF和微波辐射计的偏差分别为-1.39mm、-1.94mm、-2.58mm,均方根误差为2.85mm、3.59mm、6.79mm。由此可见GNSS/MET、探空和ECMWF模式分析的水汽具有较好的质量。从对比结果看,GNSS/MET在相关性、偏差和均方根误差方面均表现突出,和探空、ECMWF相当,而微波辐射计差别明显,均方根误差最大,但剔除雨日后,资料质量得到提高,表明微波辐射计资料的应用需要注意降水条件,反演算法需在今后进行改进。 相似文献
37.
利用北京地区2017年11月至2018年1月连续3个月的激光雷达资料和无线电探空数据,按照清洁天、污染天和多云天3种天气条件,对大气边界层高度的计算方法和结果进行对比分析。结果表明,基于激光雷达消光系数的梯度法、标准差法和小波法都能够较好地提取边界层高度。清洁天标准差法计算的边界层高度高于梯度法和小波法,08:00（当地时间,下同）和20:00由无线电探空得到的清洁天边界层高度平均值分别为1176 m和1224 m。污染天标准差法的计算结果要低于梯度法和小波法,污染天无线电探空得到的边界层高度平均值约为956 m,和清洁天相比降低了两百多米,重污染时最低降低至562 m,逆温层高度和PM2.5浓度具有明显的反相关关系。有云时,梯度法和小波法确定的边界层高度和云高非常接近,标准差法计算的结果略低。总体而言,气溶胶激光雷达计算的边界层高度随着污染等级的提高没有明显的降低趋势,相反在重度污染情况下反而有所增加,这可能是由于污染物的不断堆积导致的。梯度法确定的边界层高度易受到污染物传输过程的影响,略高于逆温层高度。另外,激光雷达确定的边界层高度受到残留层影响时,也会高于逆温层。 相似文献
38.
A long-term record (1964–1995) of radiosonde data observed atthe Bet-Dagan aerological station of the Israel Meteorological Service was analyzed to detect possible temporal trends in moisture content and instability of the atmospheric boundary layer. Bet-Dagan issituated in the central part of the south-east Mediterranean coastal plain. During this period surface characteristics in this region have changed drastically due to changes in land use, i.e., urbanization, development of irrigated agriculture and afforestation. The analysis of the radiosonde data reveals a clearly defined, statistically significant, increasing trend in the moisture content, mainly during summer. The stability of the surface layer, characterized by the bulk Richardson Number, shows adecreasing trend since the early 1960s. Relationships between these trends, land-use modifications and possible influence of large-scale influence are discussed. 相似文献
39.
中国历史探空资料中的一些过失误差及偏差问题 总被引：43，自引：4，他引：43
利用综合静力学质量控制技术，分析中国历史探空资料集中的一些过失误差情况；着重研究了１９６０年代探空仪器变化给温度和湿度时间序列带来的不均一性问题；进一步讨论了中国近期探空温度和湿度资料中垂直层次上存在的一些偏差问题 相似文献
40.
利用中国第3次青藏高原大气科学试验2014年7-8月改则探空试验期间获取的每天3次观测的探空数据,对该地区对流层大气垂直结构进行了研究。结果表明：改则地区海拔高度17-19 km存在逆温现象;第一对流层顶平均高度16082 m,第二对流层顶平均高度16466 m,前者出现概率远高于后者,两类对流层顶的高度均与其对流层顶的温度、气压成反比。08、14和20时（北京时）的最大风速分别出现在11.8、12.6和12.1 km高度,风速分别为16.2、16.3和15.9 m/s,风向随高度顺时针变化,对应为暖平流,由下层西南风转为上层的东南风,17 km以上高度稳定成东北风,下层主导风为西南风。在约8 km的高度上存在一个最大相对湿度聚集区,从地面开始相对湿度随高度升高而增大（逆湿现象）,达到该聚集区后,随高度升高而减小。青藏高原西部雨季对流层顶折叠现象出现概率较低,可能与该季节高空急流或高空锋天气较少有关。 相似文献