2003年全球重大天气与气候事件   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王丽华 《气象》2004,30(4):25-28

全球气候持续偏暖。南亚、欧洲大部和北美洲冬季出现异常严寒 ,许多地区遇到数十年未见的暴风雪 (雨 )天气。夏季欧亚大陆和北美的多个国家出现持续高温酷热天气 ,严重干旱导致森林火灾频发 ,经济损失惨重。南亚、东南亚夏季暴雨频繁 ,造成严重洪涝灾害。非洲干旱持续 ,局部发生洪涝。美国 5月遭受特大龙卷风袭击 ,北大西洋飓风较常年显著偏多。  相似文献   

The incidence and nature of bedload transport during flood flows in coarse-grained alluvial channels     

Ian Reid  Lynne E Frostick  John T Layman 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1985,10(1):33-44

A continuous record reveals that the incidence of bedload in a coarse-grained river channel changes from flood to flood. Long periods of inactivity encourage the channel bed to consolidate sufficiently so that bedload is largely confined to the recession limb of the next flood-wave. But when floods follow each other closely, the bed material is comparatively loose and offers less resistance to entrainment. In this case, substantial amounts of bedload are generated on the rising limb. This is confirmed by values of bed shear stress or stream power at the threshold of initial motion which can be up to five times the overall mean in the case of isolated floods or those which are the first of the season. This produces a complicated relationship between flow parameters and bedload and explains some of the difficulties in establishing bedload rating curves for coarse-grained channels. Besides this, the threshold of initial motion is shown to occur at levels of bed shear stress three times those at the thresholds of final motion. This adds further confusion to attempts at developing predictive bedload equations and clearly indicates at least one reason why equations currently in use are unsatisfactory. Bedload is shown to be characterized by a series of pulses with a mean periodicity of 1.7 hours. In the absence of migrating bedforms, it is speculated that this well-documented pattern reflects the passage of kinematic waves of particles in a slow-moving traction carpet. The general pattern of bedload, including pulsations, is shown to occur more or less synchronously at different points across the stream channel.  相似文献   

Nile floods recorded in deep Mediterranean sediments     

Emmanuelle Ducassou  Thierry Mulder  Sbastien Migeon  Eliane Gonthier  Anne Murat  Marie Revel  Lucilla Capotondi  Stefano M. Bernasconi  Jean Mascle  Sbastien Zaragosi 《Quaternary Research》2008,70(3):382-391

Clastic mud beds rich in continental organic matter are observed recurrently in the Nile deep-sea turbidite system. They formed during flooding periods of the river similar to those that induce sapropel formation and occurred during periods of increased density stratification of the eastern Mediterranean. The very fine-grained flood deposits are intercalated within pelagic sediments, sapropels and Bouma-type turbidites. These flood deposits form by the successive reconcentrations of surface (hypopycnal) plumes by convective sedimentation, which in turn generate a fine-grained low-energy hyperpycnal flow. Sea-level high stands seem also to favor hypopycnal plume formation and increase clastic mud bed formation. Consequently, these muddy clastic beds provide a direct link between deep-marine sedimentary records and continental climatic change through flood frequency and magnitude.  相似文献   

克里雅河下游沉积物的光释光年龄与晚更新世末以来沙漠的形成     

张峰  王姣  马丽  迪丽拜尔·吐尔孙 《地理学报》2021,76(9):2240-2252

有关塔克拉玛干沙漠演化的年代学数据尚少,本文在地貌认知较少的克里雅河下游沙漠深处的圆沙和喀拉墩一带16处剖面获取了18件河流沉积光释光（OSL）年龄。新测得的年龄数据分布于3.4—44.1 ka。全新世样品多分布于圆沙与喀拉墩干三角洲及其之间的地区,年龄集中在11 ka、8—9 ka、5—6.5 ka、4.6 ka与3.4—3.7 ka。深海氧同位素3阶段（MIS3）样品位置在克里雅河与和田河之间,分布在约38—47 ka前后。末次冰期冰盛期（LGM）末样品分布在通往圆沙古河道的西侧,年龄在14.5 ka前后。根据沉积物样品及年代学数据认为：克里雅河下游曾在MIS3阶段末、LGM末与全新世多次发生洪泛;数次的洪泛事件对克里雅河下游地貌发育产生重要影响;克里雅河下游干三角洲及现代河流西侧的流动沙丘主要形成于全新世,与前人“发育于汉唐以来”的观点不完全一致。克里雅河下游河流沉积发生时间与塔里木盆地周缘山脉冰进冰消有一定对应,暗示气候变化可能间接影响着塔克拉玛干沙漠沙丘的发育。  相似文献   

Hydrologic history of the Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers based upon a refined specific‐gauge approach     

Abebe A. Jemberie  Nicholas Pinter  Jonathan W. F. Remo 《水文研究》2008,22(22):4436-4447

A refined specific‐gauge approach was developed to quantify changes over time in hydrological response on 3260 km of the Mississippi River system using long‐term data observed at 67 hydrologic measurement stations. Of these stations, 49 were unrated (stage‐only) stations, for which over 2 000 000 ‘synthetic discharges’ were generated based on measured discharge values at nearby rated stations. The addition of these synthetic discharges nearly tripled the number of stations in the study area for which specific‐gauge analysis could be performed. In order to maintain spatial homogeneity across such a broad study area, discharges were normalized to multiples of mean daily flow (MDF). Specific‐gauge analysis calculates stage changes over time for invariant discharge conditions. Two discharges were analysed: low‐flow and flood conditions at each station. In order to avoid the large errors associated with extrapolation of annual rating curves, a new ‘enhanced interpolation’ technique was developed that calculates continuous specific‐stage time series, even for rare discharges. Thus enhanced, specific‐gauge analysis is a useful reconnaissance tool for detecting geomorphic and hydrologic trends over time. Results show that on the Middle Mississippi River and Lower Missouri River, flood stages increased at all stations in spite of widespread incision of the river bed. On the Lower Mississippi River, both low‐flow and flood stages decreased, mainly the result of artificial meander cutoffs in the late 1920s and 1930s, except downstream of Natchez, MS, where net aggradation was observed. On the Upper Mississippi River, the specific‐gauge trends were dominated by emplacement of navigational dams and impoundment of slackwater pools. On all four river reaches, these results document hydrologic responses to the different engineering toolkits used on the different portions of the Mississippi River system during the past 75–150 years. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On the use of partial probability weighted moments in the analysis of hydrological extremes     

Ugo Moisello 《水文研究》2007,21(10):1265-1279

The use of partial probability weighted moments (PPWM) for estimating hydrological extremes is compared to that of probability weighted moments (PWM). Firstly, estimates from at‐site data are considered. Two Monte Carlo analyses, conducted using continuous and empirical parent distributions (of peak discharge and daily rainfall annual maxima) and applying four different distributions (Gumbel, Fréchet, GEV and generalized Pareto), show that the estimates obtained from PPWMs are better than those obtained from PWMs if the parent distribution is unknown, as happens in practice. Secondly, the use of partial L‐moments (obtained from PPWMs) as diagnostic tools is considered. The theoretical partial L‐diagrams are compared with the experimental data. Five different distributions (exponential, Pareto, Gumbel, GEV and generalized Pareto) and 297 samples of peak discharge annual maxima are considered. Finally, the use of PPWMs with regional data is investigated. Three different kinds of regional analyses are considered. The first kind is the regression of quantile estimates on basin area. The study is conducted applying the GEV distribution to peak discharge annual maxima. The regressions obtained with PPWMs are slightly better than those obtained with PWMs. The second kind of regional analysis is the parametric one, of which four different models are considered. The congruence between local and regional estimates is examined, using peak discharge annual maxima. The congruence degree is sometimes higher for PPWMs, sometimes for PWMs. The third kind of regional analysis uses the index flood method. The study, conducted applying the GEV distribution to synthetic data from a lognormal joint distribution, shows that better estimates are obtained sometimes from PPWMs, sometimes from PWMs. All the results seem to indicate that using PPWMs can constitute a valid tool, provided that the influence of ouliers, of course higher with censored samples, is kept under control. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

江汉平原钟桥遗址地层揭示的史前洪水事件   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

吴立  朱诚  李枫  马春梅  李兰  孟华平  刘辉  王晓翠  谭艳  宋友桂 《地理学报》2015,70(7):1149-1164

通过野外考古调查研究,利用对钟桥遗址疑似古洪水层和研究区现代洪水沉积物的锆石微形态、粒度、磁化率、Rb/Sr等地球化学指标的比较、AMS¹⁴C技术和考古器物断代,发现钟桥遗址在4800~4597 cal. a BP、4479~4367 cal. a BP和4168~3850 cal. a BP分别经历了三次古洪水事件并相应堆积了古洪水沉积层;结合江汉平原及其周边地区众多遗址的古洪水沉积层时代对比证据,揭示了屈家岭文化中晚期（4900~4600 cal. a BP）和石家河文化末期至夏代（4100~3800 cal. a BP）两次大洪水事件在江汉平原地区非常普遍。对史前洪水发生环境背景的进一步分析,反映江汉平原在5000~4500 a BP及4000 a BP前后的时段气候表现得不稳定,古洪水事件与气候环境变化驱动的江汉平原湖群扩张存在一定的联系,并影响区域新石器文化兴衰过程。同时,其它证据也表明该区社会发展过程和环境变化过程特别是古水文过程的矛盾在石家河文化末期已特别突出,发现具有全球意义的4000 a BP前后气候异常引起的大洪水事件是江汉平原地区石家河文化消亡的重要环境因素;而石家河文化末期该区内部或同中原以及其它地区间的冲突,都加速了石家河文化的崩溃。这些研究成果,提供了可靠的大禹时代史前洪水证据来说明其对新石器文化兴衰的社会影响,对于揭示4000 a BP气候事件中区域气候水文变化的响应规律,亦具有重要的科学意义。  相似文献   

Predicting landscape sensitivity to present and future floods in the Pacific Northwest,USA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Mohammad Safeeq  Gordon E. Grant  Sarah L. Lewis  Brian Staab 《水文研究》2015,29(26):5337-5353

Floods are the most frequent natural disaster, causing more loss of life and property than any other in the USA. Floods also strongly influence the structure and function of watersheds, stream channels, and aquatic ecosystems. The Pacific Northwest is particularly vulnerable to climatically driven changes in flood frequency and magnitude, because snowpacks that strongly influence flood generation are near the freezing point and thus sensitive to small changes in temperature. To improve predictions of future flooding potential and inform strategies to adapt to these changes, we mapped the sensitivity of landscapes to changes in peak flows due to climate warming across Oregon and Washington. We first developed principal component‐based models for predicting peak flows across a range of recurrence intervals (2‐, 10‐, 25‐, 50‐, and 100‐years) based on historical instantaneous peak flow data from 1000 gauged watersheds in Oregon and Washington. Key predictors of peak flows included drainage area and principal component scores for climate, land cover, soil, and topographic metrics. We then used these regression models to predict future peak flows by perturbing the climate variables based on future climate projections (2020s, 2040s, and 2080s) for the A1B emission scenario. For each recurrence interval, peak flow sensitivities were computed as the ratio of future to current peak flow magnitudes. Our analysis suggests that temperature‐induced changes in snowpack dynamics will result in large (>30–40%) increases in peak flow magnitude in some areas, principally the Cascades, Olympics, and Blue Mountains and parts of the western edge of the Rocky Mountains. Flood generation processes in lower elevation areas are less likely to be affected, but some of these areas may be impacted by floodwaters from upstream. These results can assist land, water, and infrastructure managers in identifying watersheds and resources that are particularly vulnerable to increased peak flows and developing plans to increase their resilience. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

北京中心城区内涝成因   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

孙喆 《地理研究》2014,33(9):1668-1679

城市化的发展改变了原始的自然水文循环系统,打破了水量的均衡而导致了城市内涝。本文梳理了应对雨水的基本模式,并总结出与城市规划相关的三方面主要致涝因素——城市土地利用、水系统和基础设施。以北京中心城区为案例,综合考虑城市用地变化过程,从城市基本汇水区单元的视角出发,分析城区内涝程度和上述三方面因素之间的关联规律。结果表明平均坡度、河网密度与城市内涝程度呈线性正相关;耕地比率、林地比率、荒地比率与城市内涝程度呈线性负相关;而不透水表面比率和建设用地比率与城市内涝程度呈指数正相关关系。  相似文献   

1957-2010年天山玛纳斯河流域夏季径流及洪水过程对极端气候事件的响应   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

邹全  王国亚  贺斌  沈永平 《冰川冻土》2013,35(3):733-740

利用玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特站1957-2010年的气温、 降水和洪水径流等资料, 分析了该流域自1957年以来的气候变化以及夏季洪水径流过程对极端气候的响应. 结果表明: 玛纳斯河流域自1957年以来平均气温呈明显的上升趋势, 1979年是年均温由下降趋势转为上升的转折点, 并且1978年之后极端高温天气增多, 主要出现在7月份.玛纳斯河年降水量总的变化趋势是波动减少的, 1986年以后降水有所增加, 但只是恢复到多年平均降水量水平的上下波动.降水主要集中在4-8月, 约占年降水量的70%.气温高的月份与降水量多的月份并不完全对应, 如5月份气温较低, 但降水较大; 7月气温最高, 但6月降水量最大; 8月气温较高, 但降水量较少.玛纳斯河年径流主要集中在6-9月, 4个月的总径流量约占全年总径流量的80%, 7月份径流量最大, 约占全年总径流量的28.8%.历年最大洪峰流量呈显著增加趋势, 1993年是最大洪峰流量由下降变为增多的转折点, 而1994-2010年最大洪峰流量基本保持在高位上下波动.最大15日洪量占年径流量的比例较大, 说明洪水过程持续时间较长, 汛期水量较为集中.最大洪峰流量出现时间基本都在7月和8月上旬.玛纳斯河夏季月径流与夏季月气温和降水的关系并不密切, 低度相关, 说明玛纳斯河流域自1993年以来夏季洪水频繁发生, 尤其超标准洪水次数增多、 量级增大主要是由于夏季极端高温和极端降水天气增多引起的.  相似文献