排序方式： 共有56条查询结果，搜索用时 37 毫秒
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利用季节平均Had ISST海温、CMAP降水及NCEP风场数据,分析了2015/2016超级厄尔尼诺衰减期的特征及其对应的西北太平洋大气环流异常。结果表明:2015/2016厄尔尼诺事件除了成熟位相冬季强度大以外,还具有在随后春季衰减快,到夏季就消亡的特征。伴随着厄尔尼诺的迅速衰减,西北太平洋有较强的反气旋环流异常维持。厄尔尼诺衰减位相与西太反气旋异常存在相互作用。一方面,由于此次厄尔尼诺事件强度强,衰减期热带印度洋有显著的暖海温异常从冬季一直维持到夏季,有利于西太反气旋的增强和维持。另一方面,西太反气旋环流异常的维持及其南侧东风异常的发展使得中东太平洋正海温异常减弱,令厄尔尼诺事件快速衰退。此外,通过与1982/1983和1997/1998年比较发现,这三次超强厄尔尼诺事件虽强度相当,但衰减位相及与之相联系的西太反气旋异常都不尽相同。1982/1983事件衰减慢,维持时间长,对应的西太反气旋强度弱。而1997/1998事件衰减快,维持时间短,对应的西太反气旋强度在春季和夏季都强盛维持。2015/2016事件的衰减速度明显快于1982/1983事件,对应的西太反气旋也强于1982/1983事件,由于2015/2016事件增暖中心偏向于中东太平洋,而这里是厄尔尼诺衰减过程中负海温异常最先出现的区域,因此尽管2015/2016事件中西太反气旋异常的强度弱于1997/1998事件,但衰减速度及衰减位相维持时间与1997/1998相当。本文研究结果表明厄尔尼诺衰减与西太反气旋异常之间的关系较为复杂,需进一步研究。 相似文献
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通过涡度、距平、小波变换和时频分析等方法,研究了2015年4月15日阿拉善左旗5.8级地震前,震区(37.50°~43.50°N,103.50°~109.50°E)长波辐射(OLR)时空分布特征。结果显示:①2015年4月去除背景值之后的OLR涡度场在震中附近存在明显高值异常区;② 震中附近格点(39.50°N,105.50°E)和(40.50°N,107.50°E)OLR涡度日值超过二倍均方差频次在震前非线性增加;③ 基于自适应最优核的时频分析方法获得的上述两个格点OLR涡度时频分布图显示震前存在高能量密度区域;④ 本文获得的现象和汶川8.0级地震等震例结果相类似,值得深入研究。 相似文献
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采用大型动三轴试验仪进行重塑高岭土试样的循环三轴试验,试样直径为300 mm,高度为600 mm。圆柱体试样中心放置了一块竖向排水板,在循环加载试验进行时和结束后都可进行径向排水。试验结果验证了径向排水可以有效地消散循环荷载引起的孔隙水压力。通过结合径向固结理论与不排水循环加载土体模型,提出了一个循环荷载作用下径向固结模型,用来描述在允许径向排水的情况下软黏土在循环荷载作用下的孔压累积特性。模型中考虑了应力历史和孔隙水压力消散对孔隙水压力生成的影响,并用大型循环三轴试验结果进行验证。研究发现,当施加较大循环荷载时,径向排水减缓了孔隙水压力累积到临界值的速率,因而土体在破坏前可以经历更多次的循环荷载;当施加中等循环荷载时,径向排水可有效阻止孔隙水压力增长至临界值。除此之外,还研究了加载间歇期对孔压累积特性的影响,结果显示3组循环加载结束后,累积孔隙水压力开始减小,表明之后更多的循环加载并不会引起孔隙水压力的累积增长。 相似文献
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IPCC第五次评估报告第二工作组报告《气候变化2014：影响、适应和脆弱性》以气候变化风险为核心理念,对气候变化的影响进行了系统性的评估,对适应气候变化相关的需求、选择、机会、约束和局限性等方面进行了全面综合的论述。报告发布正值《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判的关键时期,作为德班平台新协议谈判的重要信息来源,第二工作组报告将对全球长期目标、适应及其与减缓的关系、损失与损害等重要议题谈判产生重要的影响。为了在下阶段更好地开展国际谈判和国内相关工作,应深入解读报告的主要结论并做到科学的应用。 相似文献
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Kok-Kwang Phoon 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(1):4-21
ABSTRACTThis paper adds to the ongoing discussion on the role of reliability calculations in geotechnical design. It situates design calculations, be it verified by a global factor of safety, partial factors, or reliability-based design (RBD), in a larger context of quality management over the life cycle of the structure. It clarifies that uncertainties amenable to probabilistic treatment typically fall under the category of “known unknowns” where some measured data and/or past experience exist for limited site-specific data to be supplemented by both objective regional data and subjective judgement derived from comparable sites elsewhere. Within this category, reliability is very useful in handling complex real-world information (multivariate correlated data) and information imperfections (scarcity of information or incomplete information). It is also very useful in handling real-world design aspects such as spatial variability that cannot be easily treated using deterministic means. Examples are presented to illustrate how reliability calculations could relieve engineering judgement from the unsuitable task of performance verification in the presence of uncertainties so that the engineer can focus on setting up the right lines of scientific investigation, selecting the appropriate models and parameters for calculations, and verifying the reasonableness of the results. 相似文献
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本文介绍了2015年4月25日尼泊尔Mw7.9(MS8.1)地震发生后的破裂过程快速反演工作,以及后续开展的地震波与少量GPS资料的初步联合反演工作.两项工作得到的反演结果尽管在最大滑动量估计方面存在一些差别,但都一致地显示此次地震是发生在低倾角俯冲断裂上的一次单侧破裂事件,破裂主要朝东南方向传播;断层滑动主要发生在震中至加德满都一带.在加德满都附近区域,其下方破裂与朝东南传播的地震波的多普勒聚焦效应可能造成较强的震感和较大的破坏.对比历史大地震发现,2015年尼泊尔Mw7.9地震的浅部破裂紧邻1934年Mw8.2地震的地表破裂,余震分布与1833年M7.6地震的宏观震中基本重合,其破裂填补了前两次地震破裂以西100km左右的空区,表明此次地震是1934年Mw8.2地震与1833年M7.6地震向西继续延伸的结果. 相似文献
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基于“2015模型”和分区模型对比的方法，开展折合走时、典型地震、爆破和塌陷以及PTD震源深度测定4个方面的模型适用性检验。检验结果显示，采用分区模型时，随机抽取事件均位于折合走时理论线中间；典型事件、爆破和塌陷使用分区模型得到的定位残差较“2015模型”明显减小，且使用“3个区域与编目”获得的震中差较“2015—编目”有明显降低。使用分区模型进行PTD震源深度测定，更符合内蒙古分区地壳厚度分布特征。分区模型与全球地壳模型crust 1.0、crust 2.0和使用接收函数得到的Moho面厚度分布结果基本一致。综合认为，内蒙古西部、中部、东部一维地壳速度模型更符合内蒙古地区区域地质构造特征。 相似文献
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Season‐based rainfall–runoff modelling using the probability‐distributed model (PDM) for large basins in southeastern Brazil 
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下载免费PDF全文 Rong Zhang Luz Adriana Cuartas Luiz Valerio de Castro Carvalho Karinne Reis Deusdará Leal Eduardo Mário Mendiondo Narumi Abe Stephen Birkinshaw Guilherme Samprogna Mohor Marcelo Enrique Seluchi Carlos Afonso Nobre 《水文研究》2018,32(14):2217-2230
Southeastern Brazil is characterized by seasonal rainfall variability. This can have a great social, economic, and environmental impact due to both excessive and deficient water availability. During 2014 and 2015, the region experienced one of the most severe droughts since 1960. The resulting water crisis has seriously affected water supply to the metropolitan region of São Paulo and hydroelectric power generation throughout the entire country. This research considered the upstream basins of the southeastern Brazilian reservoirs Cantareira (2,279 km2; water supply) and Emborcação (29,076 km2), Três Marias (51,576 km2), Furnas (52,197 km2), and Mascarenhas (71,649 km2; hydropower) for hydrological modelling. It made the first attempt at configuring a season‐based probability‐distributed model (PDM‐CEMADEN) for simulating different hydrological processes during wet and dry seasons. The model successfully reproduced the intra‐annual and interannual variability of the upstream inflows during 1985–2015. The performance of the model was very satisfactory not only during the wet, dry, and transitional seasons separately but also during the whole period. The best performance was obtained for the upstream basin of Furnas, as it had the highest quality daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and logarithmic Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency were 0.92 and 0.93 for the calibration period 1984–2001, 0.87 and 0.88 for the validation period 2001–2010, and 0.93 and 0.90 for the validation period 2010–2015, respectively. Results indicated that during the wet season, the upstream basins have a larger capacity and variation of soil water storage, a larger soil water conductivity, and quicker surface water flow than during the dry season. The added complexity of configuring a season‐based PDM‐CEMADEN relative to the traditional model is well justified by its capacity to better reproduce initial conditions for hydrological forecasting and prediction. The PDM‐CEMADEN is a simple, efficient, and easy‐to‐use model, and it will facilitate early decision making and implement adaptation measures relating to disaster prevention for reservoirs with large‐sized upstream basins. 相似文献
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2015年4月25日尼泊尔发生了MW7.8地震, 本文基于震前、 震后两景Sentinel-1A雷达影像, 采用D-InSAR两轨差分干涉法提取了此次地震的同震形变场。 结果显示, 同震形变场位于喜马拉雅造山带—主边界逆冲断裂(MBT)和主前锋逆冲断裂(MFT)附近, 形变场整体表现为自西北向往东南方向延伸近150 km的纺锤形包络状, 以大面积隆起抬升形变为主, 视线向最大隆升形变达1.18 m, 抬升区北侧存在一小沉陷区, 以InSAR观测值定位同震最大形变中心。 基于均匀介质弹性半空间模型(Okada模型)与InSAR观测数据反演了断层滑动分布。 反演结果表明该地震属于典型逆冲型地震, 发震断层为主喜马拉雅逆冲断裂(MHT), 同震破裂从主喜马拉雅逆冲断裂(MHT)向上沿着主前锋逆冲断裂(MFT)传递。 基于InSAR同震形变场局部形变细节, 结合震区地质背景、 断裂分布及断层运动特征, 获得了同震破裂拟出露地表迹线。 相似文献