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41.
Attribution of global near-surface temperature changes is revisited using simulations from the coupled model intercomparison project 5 and methodological improvements from the regularised optimal fingerprinting approach. The analysis of global mean temperature shows that changes can be robustly detected and attributed to anthropogenic influence. However, the differences between results from individual models and observations are found to be larger than the simulated internal variability in several cases. Discrimination between greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings, based on the global mean only, is more difficult due to collinearity of temporal response patterns. Using spatio-temporal data provides less robust conclusions with respect to detection and attribution, as the results tend to deteriorate as the spatial resolution increases. More importantly, some inconsistencies between individual models and observations are found in this case. Such behaviour is not observed in a perfect model framework, where pseudo-observations and the expected response patterns are provided by the same model. However, using response patterns from a model other than the one used for pseudo-observations may lead to the same behaviour as real observations. Our results suggest that additional sources of uncertainty, such as modeling uncertainty or observational uncertainty, should not be neglected in detection and attribution.  相似文献   
42.
This work examines the relevance of a classical two-column modeling framework of the tropical climate in terms of observed natural variability. A method is developed to analyze the observed tropical climate in a simple framework that features a moist, ascending column and a dry, subsiding one. This method is used to analyze the natural variability of the tropical climate in the ERA40 reanalysis and in ISCCP satellite data. It appears that the seasonal cycle of the tropic-wide sea surface temperature (SST) is almost linearly linked to the seasonal cycle of the relative area of the moist regions, as predicted by the sensitivity of the two-column models. A more detailed analysis shows that this link is the product of a complex interaction and adjustments between the moist and dry regions. The seasonal cycle of low-cloud cover in the dry regions also appears to interact with the SST seasonal cycle: the low-cloud cover influences the tropic-wide SST via its direct radiative forcing on the local SST and it appears to be controlled by the SST difference between moist and dry regions. By contrast, the SST interannual variability appears to be driven by the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with no significant impact from the changes in the relative area of the moist regions or in the low-cloud cover in the dry regions independently of the ENSO. ENSO-related changes in the area of moist regions and low-cloud cover constitute negative feedbacks on the ENSO-related SST variability.  相似文献   
43.
Geostatistics applied to radiological evaluation of nuclear premises provides methods to estimate radiological activities, together with their associated uncertainty. It enables a sophisticated sampling methodology combining radiation map and destructive samples. The radiological assessment is divided in two steps: first, a regular control of the surface activity is performed. Then, to assess the true contamination, concrete samples are collected and analyses are performed at several locations within the premises. These two types of measurement are first dealt separately, then cokriging techniques are applied to estimate the contamination over the premise, taking both information into account. This paper presents a methodological study of geostatistical and computational approaches to target suitable areas for additional radiological measures. In order to compare the proposed augmented sampling designs, several optimization criteria are taken into account. Their diversity ensures the coverage of a wide range of real problematics. Two algorithms (greedy algorithm and simulated annealing) are developed to optimize the chosen criterion value as a function of the location of the additional points. The sampling scenarios obtained with the different algorithms are compared in terms of optimization performance and computational efficiency.  相似文献   
44.
Petrochronology of magmatic monazite and apatite from a single paragneiss leucosome derived by in situ partial melting documents the thermal evolution of the Allochthonous Belt of the central Grenville Province. Monazite records suprasolidus metamorphism from ca. 1080 to 1020 Ma under high temperature up to 850°C. Apatite from the same leucosome yields an age of 960 Ma, consistent with cooling of this crustal segment down to subsolidus conditions of ca. 450°C. A pegmatitic granite dyke, with lobate contacts, previously dated at ca. 1005 Ma (Turlin et al., 2017 ) is interpreted to intrude the paragneisses at a temperature of ca. 650°C close to the wet‐solidus. These data document slow cooling at a rate of 2–6°C/Ma for the middle crust of this part of the Grenville hinterland marked by protracted suprasolidus conditions for at least 70 Ma. It supports the definition of the Grenville Orogen as a large, hot, long‐duration orogen.  相似文献   
45.
We analysed charcoal and pollen from sediments obtained from two lakes in the northwestern mixed‐wood Canadian boreal forest in order to reconstruct fire‐return intervals and vegetation dynamics over the last 8000 years. Sites were selected with contrasting soil properties (mesic versus dry‐sandy soils), allowing an estimation of the potential influence of soils on long‐term vegetation and fire dynamics. The sites likely experienced fewer fires during the period extending from 8000 to 4000 cal. a BP than over the last 4000 years. At both sites, eastern white pine (Pinus strobus) populations were most extensive shortly after deglaciation, with vegetation later shifting towards mixed woodlands with less P. strobus and more extensive Picea and Pinus banksiana populations. This gradual vegetation shift was probably induced by the establishment of colder and moister conditions along with a fire‐regime change. In spite of the parallel long‐term vegetation trajectories, vegetation composition differed between the two sites in both the past and present. Whereas Picea was more abundant at the mesic site, the fire‐adapted P. banksiana populations were more extensive at the sandy‐soil site. These differences in vegetation composition indicate that, in addition to climate changes and fire occurrence, soil properties also influenced vegetation dynamics. A likely increase in fire frequency in the Canadian boreal forest during the 21st century might therefore favour the expansion of these two disturbance‐adapted trees with spatial heterogeneity in the populations due to varying soil types. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
46.
Cr, Fe, Rb, Ba and U were determined by inductively coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry (ICP-SFMS) in various sections of the 3,270 m deep ice core recently drilled at Dome C on the high East Antarctic plateau as part of the EPICA program. The sections were dated from 263 kyr bp (depth of 2,368 m) to 672 kyr bp (depth of 3,062 m). When combined with the data previously obtained by Gabrielli and co-workers for the upper 2,193 m of the core, it gives a detailed record for these elements during a 672-kyr period from the Holocene back to Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 16.2. Concentrations and fallout fluxes of all elements are found to be highly variable with low values during the successive interglacial periods and much higher values during the coldest periods of the last eight climatic cycles. Crustal enrichment factors indicates that rock and soil dust is the dominant source for Fe, Rb, Ba and U whatever the period and for Cr during the glacial maxima. The relationship between Cr, Fe, Rb, Ba and U concentrations and the deuterium content of the ice appears to be similar before and after the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE, around 430 kyr bp). Mean concentration values observed during the successive interglacials from the Holocene to MIS 15.5 appear to vary from one interglacial to another at least for part of the elements. Concentrations observed during the successive glacial maxima suggest a decreasing trend from the most recent glacial maxima (MIS 2.2 and 4.2) to the oldest glacial maxima such as MIS 14.2, 14.4 and 16.2, which could be linked with changes in the size distribution of dust particles transported from mid-latitude areas to the East Antarctic ice cap.  相似文献   
47.
The recent discoveries of deeply buried Cretaceous reservoir bodies in the Atlantic Ocean revealed that relationships between the distribution of spring carbonate deposits and faults are poorly understood. The well‐exposed Quaternary deposits at Obruktepe (Denizli Basin, Turkey) provide an opportunity to reconstruct the three‐dimensional sedimentary architecture of such a system. Integration of sedimentological, lithofacies and geochemical analyses reveals complexity in the lateral relationships between sedimentary environments, faults and geothermal spring carbonates. Five environmental systems are distinguished based on the lithofacies analysis: (i) vent; (ii) smooth slope; (iii) travertine‐terrace; (iv) tufa‐barrage; and (v) flood systems. Encrusting, baffling and settling sedimentary processes are reflected in data acquired at several scales, from lithofacies observations to the morphology and arrangement of geobodies, together with microfabrics and stable carbon and oxygen isotope data. Mean values of +4·9‰ δ13C and −8·74‰ δ18O Vienna PeeDee Belemnite reflect geothermal circulation of springwaters. The environmental distribution and lithofacies indicate a lateral continuum between travertine and tufa deposits within this hot spring system. This finding supports two depositional models in which water flow variation is the main control on both CaCO3 precipitation and the resulting formation of travertine and tufa. The proposed models address the factors responsible for the development of these complex mound‐shaped carbonate spring deposits, and how they are related to fluid circulation at depth and in association with faults.  相似文献   
48.
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49.
Depth–duration–frequency curves estimate the rainfall intensity patterns for various return periods and rainfall durations. An empirical model based on the generalized extreme value distribution is presented for hourly maximum rainfall, and improved by the inclusion of daily maximum rainfall, through the extremal indexes of 24 hourly and daily rainfall data. The model is then divided into two sub-models for the short and long rainfall durations. Three likelihood formulations are proposed to model and compare independence or dependence hypotheses between the different durations. Dependence is modelled using the bivariate extreme logistic distribution. The results are calculated in a Bayesian framework with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The application to a data series from Marseille shows an improvement of the hourly estimations thanks to the combination between hourly and daily data in the model. Moreover, results are significantly different with or without dependence hypotheses: the dependence between 24 and 72 h durations is significant, and the quantile estimates are more severe in the dependence case.  相似文献   
50.
The mechanical efficiency of the biocementation process is directly related to the microstructural properties of the biocemented sand, such as the volume fraction of calcite, its distribution within the pore space, coordination number, contact surface area, and types of contact. In the present work, some of these microscopic properties are computed, from 3D images obtained by X-ray tomography of biocemented sand. These properties are then used as an input in current analytical models to estimate the elastic properties (Young and shear moduli) and the strength properties (Coulomb cohesion). For the elastic properties, the analytical estimates (contact cement theory model) are compared with classical bounds, self-consistent estimate and numerical results obtained by direct computation (FEM computation) on the same 3D images. Concerning the cohesion, an analytical model initially developed to estimate the cohesion due to suction in unsaturated soils is modified to evaluate the macroscopic cohesion of biocemented sands. Such analytical model is calibrated on experimental data obtained from triaxial tests performed on the same biocemented sand. In overall, the presented results point out the important role of some microstructural parameters, notably those related to the contact, on such effective parameters.  相似文献   
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