太行山对北京“7.21”特大暴雨的影响及水汽敏感性分析的数值研究   总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1  

王宇虹  徐国强  贾丽红  赵阳 《气象》2015,41(4):389-400

运用GRAPES_Meso模式对2012年7月21—22日发生在北京地区附近的特大暴雨过程进行数值模拟和地形、水汽的敏感性试验。地形敏感性试验发现,在这次特大暴雨过程中,由于太行山北端的阻挡作用,使得气流和水汽辐合、抬升,加强了对流过程;对流层低层山前东南风和西南风、北风的辐合带增大了气旋性涡度,使东移到北京的低涡稳定维持5 h左右,对降水有明显的增幅作用;而且地形起伏和地形海拔高度对降水都有明显增幅作用,地形起伏的增幅作用较地形高度的大。水汽敏感性试验发现在这次特大暴雨过程中,水汽条件较小的变化,会导致水汽输送的明显差异,从而导致降水量显著地改变。  相似文献   

A simulation‐based framework for risk assessment and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of base‐isolated structures     

Alexandros A. Taflanidis  Gaofeng Jia 《地震工程与结构动力学》2011,40(14):1629-1651

A versatile, simulation‐based framework for risk assessment and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of base‐isolated structures is discussed in this work. A probabilistic foundation is used to address the various sources of uncertainties, either excitation or structural, and to characterize seismic risk. This risk is given, in this stochastic setting, by some statistics of the system response over the adopted probability models and stochastic simulation is implemented for its evaluation. An efficient, sampling‐based approach is also introduced for establishing a probabilistic sensitivity analysis to identify the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters in affecting the overall risk. This framework facilitates use of complex models for the structural system and the excitation. The adopted structural model explicitly addresses nonlinear characteristics of the isolators and of any supplemental dampers, and the effect of seismic pounding of the base to the surrounding retaining walls. An efficient stochastic ground motion model is also discussed for characterizing future near‐fault ground motions and relating them to the seismic hazard for the structural site. An illustrative example is presented that emphasizes the results from the novel probabilistic sensitivity analysis and their dependence on seismic pounding occurrences and on addition of supplemental dampers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

速度传感反馈地震计的参数稳定性分析     

杨晓源  邵玉平  杜瑶 《地震地磁观测与研究》2011,32(6):109-115

从理论上定量分析机械摆和环路滤波等开环诸参数变化对速度传感反馈地震计闭环参数的影响.研究指出,在环路设计中可半自由选取的开环阻尼取值对参数稳定性有重要影响.过大或过小的开环阻尼取值均可能造成参数稳定性急剧变差,影响地震计在只标不调的状况下长期连续稳定工作.  相似文献   

SENSITIVITY AND PATH DEPENDENCE OF MOUNTAIN PERMAFROST SYSTEMS     

SARAH VERLEYSDONK  MICHAEL KRAUTBLATTER  RICHARD DIKAU 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2011,93(2):113-135

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不同预处理方法对尕海沉积物粒度测试的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李华勇  潘安定  明庆忠 《干旱区地理》2011,(4)

湖泊沉积物粒度是研究湖区古环境演化的一个重要代用指标,粒度测量结果与预处理方法密切相关。从柴达木尕海湖岩心钻孔取48个样品,采用五种预处理方法,运用马尔文2000激光粒度仪进行粒度分析。结果显示经过预处理后平均粒径有不同程度的变细。单独加入H2O2除去样品中的有机质后,粒度分散变细最为明显,变幅可达10%左右,单独加入(NaPO3)6或H2O2处理后,>63μm(粗颗粒组分)粒径百分含量降低8个百分点左右。单独加蒸馏水浸泡、单独加HCl除去碳酸盐类胶结物和先后加H2O2、HCl(、NaPO3)6处理这三种方法分散效果不明显。23～33号样品对预处理的灵敏度最差,其他样品灵敏度稍好,但总体上尕海湖沉积物对预处理作用不敏感。对于性质类似的盐湖沉积物粒度测试,本文推荐加H2O2进行预处理。  相似文献   

博斯腾湖滨柽柳(Tamarix ramosissina)生长对湖水位的敏感性     

侯佳文  海米提·依米提  叶茂 《中国沙漠》2015,35(3)

基于博斯腾湖1955—2012年湖水位变化资料,利用树木年轮法分析了博斯腾湖年和月水位变化与湖滨柽柳(Tamarix ramosissina)年轮生长关系,利用敏感度指数得出博斯腾湖滨柽柳年轮生长的敏感水位范围。结果表明:(1)1955—2012年博斯腾湖年平均水位经历了3个明显变化阶段,即1955—1987年下降至最低,1987—2002年上升至最高。受向下游生态输水影响,2002—2012年博斯腾湖水位快速下降。输水对博斯腾湖月平均水位和季节性水位变化有影响。(2)博斯腾湖滨柽柳年轮指数与当年的湖水位变化和前1年的湖水位变化均显著相关(p0.05)。柽柳年轮指数与前1年10月至当年4月各个月份的湖水位表现出显著相关(p0.05)。柽柳年轮指数与前1年冬季湖水位相关显著(p0.05),与当年春季3—4月月平均湖水位相关性显著,与当年夏季和秋季湖水位的相关性不显著。(3)博斯腾湖滨柽柳年轮生长对月湖水位变化响应比较敏感。当湖水位在1045.3m时,柽柳年轮指数灵敏度指数(Sk)存在最低值;当湖水位在1 046.3m时,Sk出现最高值。  相似文献   

基于改进的两步移动搜索法的山区医疗服务空间可达性——以重庆市石柱县为例   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

邓丽  邵景安  郭跃  徐新良 《地理科学进展》2015,34(6)

针对贫困山区医疗资源短缺、分布不均衡、服务能力差等问题,以重庆市石柱县为例,基于自然村尺度,采用改进的两步移动搜索法,从供需角度分析研究区医疗服务空间可达性特征。设置不同的时间阻抗进行敏感性分析,探究可达性变化规律。通过对石柱县医疗资源空间布局的均衡性评价,为山区未来医疗布局的合理规划与医疗标准的配备提供决策依据。结果表明:1石柱县整体医疗服务可达性差,低于重庆市平均水平。2县域医疗资源布局不均衡,空间差异明显。高值区主要集中在方斗山中低山区和黄水镇,低值区主要集中在南部中山区,两极分异明显。3医院的规模、级别,道路的等级、疏密对可达性有一定的影响:靠近县城的乡镇、路网密集的地方可达性一般较好。4随着出行阻抗的增大,医疗服务的可达性随之变好,边缘乡镇的可达性随之变差,可达性值变化幅度减缓,医疗服务空间可达性分异变小;医疗资源配备充足的乡镇,随着时间阻抗增加,对周边乡镇可达性的影响增强。  相似文献   

利用控制点三维信息标定机载双天线干涉SAR参数   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

张薇  向茂生  吴一戎 《测绘学报》2010,39(4):370-377

采用基于敏感度方程的方法,研究基于三维重建模型下的机载双天线干涉SAR系统的干涉参数定标问题.干涉参数定标是生成高精度数字高程模型的关键.本文修正了Madsen提出的干涉SAR三维重建的视向量正交分解算法,采用电磁波波前的球面波模型,加入了载机的姿态旋转,构建一种新的干涉SAR三维重建模型.利用各干涉参数对控制点三维信息的不同的敏感性,提出分别利用地面控制点三维信息,对各干涉参数进行定标.并利用中国科学院电子学研究所自主设计、研制的机载干涉SAR系统数据,进行定标处理实验验证.  相似文献   

Effects of different types of mechanical disturbances on a charophyte dominated macrophyte community     

Kaire Torn  Georg MartinJonne Kotta  Maarit Kupp 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

Charophytes are unique and endangered macroalgae. Mechanical stress is known to damage charophyte communities, however, virtually nothing is known how such disturbance affect seasonal succession and recovery of charophyte communities. We examined the response of a shallow water charophyte community to different types and timing of disturbances by conducting seasonal in situ field experiment in a brackish water ecosystem. The disturbances associated with mechanical removal of vegetation or sediment had the largest impact on the charophyte community. Disturbances that only partly damaged the plants had minor effects and communities were characterized by fast recovery. The timing of disturbance had significant effects on the charophyte community with stronger effects when disturbed at the early stage compared to mid-stage of seasonal succession.  相似文献   

Curve‐Number/Green–Ampt mixed procedure for streamflow predictions in ungauged basins: Parameter sensitivity analysis     

S. Grimaldi  A. Petroselli  N. Romano 《水文研究》2013,27(8):1265-1275

A procedure combining the Soil Conservation Service‐Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method and the Green–Ampt (GA) infiltration equation was recently developed to overcome some of the drawbacks of the classic SCS‐CN approach when estimating the volume of surface runoff at a sub‐daily time resolution. The rationale of this mixed procedure, named Curve Number for Green–Ampt (CN4GA), is to use the GA infiltration model to distribute the total volume of the net hyetograph (rainfall excess) provided by the SCS‐CN method over time. The initial abstraction and the total volume of rainfall given by the SCS‐CN method are used to identify the ponding time and to quantify the hydraulic conductivity parameter of the GA equation. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis of the mixed CN4GA parameters is presented with the aim to identify conditions where the mixed procedure can be effectively used within the Prediction in Ungauged Basin perspective. The effects exerted by changes in selected input parameters on the outputs are evaluated using rectangular and triangular synthetic hyetographs as well as 100 maximum annual storms selected from synthetic rainfall time series. When applied to extreme precipitation events, which are characterized by predominant peaks of rainfall, the CN4GA appears to be rather insensitive to the input hydraulic parameters of the soil, which is an interesting feature of the CN4GA approach and makes it an ideal candidate for the rainfall excess estimation at sub‐daily temporal resolution at ungauged sites. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献