排序方式： 共有72条查询结果，搜索用时 250 毫秒
51.
为了提高广州市PM2.5客观预报能力,采用主成分分析结合机器学习算法k近邻（PCA-kNN）方法,基于空气质量模式（CMAQ）预报产品、中尺度天气模式（GRAPES-MESO）预报产品和2017年上半年广州PM2.5观测实况,试验确定PCA-kNN方法的最佳参数方案,建立广州市空气质量模式PM2.5预报客观订正方法。结果表明:与CMAQ模式的PM2.5预报相比,在第1~3天预报时效上,PCA-kNN订正结果与实况的相关系数分别提高20%、15%、29%,均方根误差分别降低17%、16%、20%,平均偏差更接近0,PM2.5浓度等级TS评分接近或优于CMAQ预报,PCA-kNN订正结果优于CMAQ预报。机器学习算法PCA-kNN方法可有效改进广州市空气质量模式PM2.5预报,本研究对其他地区、其他污染物客观预报研究具有借鉴意义。 相似文献
52.
1949-2017年南海海域热带气旋强度和路径快速变化统计特征 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
为进一步认识南海地区热带气旋强度和路径快速变化的统计特征，利用中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的1949–2017年的热带气旋最佳路径数据集，统计分析了不同强度等级热带气旋发生强度和路径快速变化的特征。结果表明:(1)由强热带风暴快速加强为台风、以及由台风快速加强为强台风是热带气旋强度快速加强发生频率最多的事件；强度快速加强次数以1次居多，一般不会超过2次；但大部分途经南海的热带气旋出现快速加强时都在南海以外的地区，在南海出现快速加强的概率仅为9.8%。(2)不同强度的热带气旋，其强度的维持时间长短对其强度快速加强有重要影响，一般在该强度的前24 h是快速加强的最佳阶段，当其中心气压下降速度超过?12.0 hPa/(6 h)时容易出现台风级别或以上的强度快速加强，且热带气旋快速加强容易出现在海温偏高地区。(3)南海地区热带气旋路径的偏转主要出现在西行路径中，其中以5°～30°的偏转为最常见，占到全部热带气旋总数的48.65%，不过，按照定义的路径快速转向标准，路径快速转向的概率仅有15.13%。随着热带气旋强度的增强，南海地区发生路径快速转向的频次迅速减少，路径快速转向主要出现在近海岸地区和南海中北部偏东区域。这些结果进一步细化和丰富了对南海地区热带气旋强度和路径快速变化的认识。 相似文献
53.
基于神经网络的广州市能见度预报 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在研究了广州市能见度变化特征及低能见度发生的主要影响因素的基础上,利用广州市环境监测站2007-2009年的空气污染物（PM10、SO2、NO2）监测数据及同期地面气象要素（10min平均风速、最大风速、气温、相对湿度、露点温度、气压、24h降水量）观测资料筛选出主要的预报因子,用径向神经网络建立预报模型,并对2009年9月1日到12月25日的能见度进行预报试验.结果表明径向神经网络预报模型在能见度低于10km时预报准确率明显高于统计回归预报方程.采用分级方法统计得出在未出现低能见度情况下,中低能见度,中高能见度预报准确率分别为80％,69.6％,均高于线性回归预报方程（40％,47.8％）. 相似文献
54.
通过统计近3年广州强对流的回波结构特征,设计了由4部具有双线偏振功能的X波段相控阵天气雷达组网,覆盖广州中心城区。以期获得本地小尺度对流单体生消完整过程的精细探测资料,为对流单体生消机理分析提供数据基础,同时为分析城市冠层影响飑线等线状对流系统强度变化提供观测依据。观测试验表明:相控阵雷达网获取的高分辨率探测数据,监测本地生消的小尺度对流单体、线状对流系统的强度变化有明显优势,对预警信号发布等业务有很大帮助。不足之处是该相控阵雷达采取单波束扫描模式,加快扫描速度受到一定程度限制。 相似文献
55.
广州CINRAD/SA雷达完成双偏振升级改造后,本文评估分析了其探测灵敏度、地物抑制能力以及差分反射率ZDR,差分相移Φ_(DP)、差分相移率K_(DP)及相关系数的数据质量,结果表明:双偏振升级后雷达灵敏度与升级前基本一致,地物杂波抑制效果有明显改善;ZDR系统偏差变化稳定,随Z的增长趋势与经验值一致,测量误差不超过0.2dB;Φ_(DP)的初始相位具有较好的稳定性,K_(DP)对强降水敏感,与强降水有很好的对应关系;相关系数能够很好地区分气象和非气象回波。 相似文献
56.
利用每天4次0.125°×0.125°的ECMWF-Interim再分析资料和广东省2009—2018年地面气象站逐时雨量观测的短时强降水数据集,针对广东不同季节、不同地域的短时强降水,以提高命中率同时控制虚警率为目的,提出基于显著性和敏感性评价的物理量优选和因子分析法,用于构建分期、分区的广东短时强降水概率预报模型。以参数显著性和预测敏感性为标准,在49个待选物理量中挑选18个既与多年平均态存在明显差异,又具有较低虚警率的物理量,应用方差最大正交旋转因子分析法将遴选物理量组合成表征大气不同环境条件的6个因子;为使组合因子更具适应性,基于因子偏离度特征对广东前、后汛期不同区域独立建模,构建分期、分区短时强降水逐6 h格点概率预报模型。汛期业务试验表明,模型对短时强降水发生概率预报效果较好。对2019年汛期模型每天两次起报的12 h预报时效内概率产品进行格点检验,以训练期最优TS评分对应的固定概率作为预测概率阈值,广东省大部分区域TS评分超过0.25,最高超过0.42,平均较ECMWF-Fine业务模式在前、后汛期分别提升0.23与0.21,南部沿海TS评分提升幅度最大,并且模型在提升命中率与降低虚警率之间取得较好的平衡。个例分析表明,对于ECMWF模式常漏报的广东暖区短时强降水,概率预报模型具有明显优势,尤其能为天气尺度弱动力强迫的强降水早期预警提供更多有效信息。 相似文献
57.
Based on high-fidelity numerical simulation by using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, we analyzed the formation and replacement mechanism of the concentric eyewall of Super Typhoon Muifa (1109) from the aspects of the potential vorticity (PV), dynamic/ thermodynamic structure change, sea surface flux, and water vapor content. Observational data and sensitivity tests were also adopted to verify the results. We found that: (1) The abnormal increase of the PV in the rain zone is mainly due to the condensation latent heat. Sufficient water vapor conditions are beneficial to the formation of the outer eyewall structure, and when the environmental water vapor content is larger, the intensity of the outer eyewall becomes greater. (2) After the formation of the typhoon’s outer eyewall, in the area where the outer eyewall is located, the increase of inertial stability contributes to the decrease of the intensity of the inner eyewall. When the intensity of the outer eyewall is larger, the divergence and subsidence motion in the upper layer of the outer eyewall has a greater weakening effect on the intensity of the inner eyewall. (3) The increase of potential temperature of the outer eyewall is mainly due to the condensation latent heat release and the warming of dry air subsidence motion in the moat area. (4) The increase of sea surface heat flux can prolong the concentric eyewall replacement process. 相似文献
58.
为提高X波段双偏振相控阵雷达(XPAR-D)数据质量,采用自适应约束订正方法对反射率因子ZH、差分反射率因子ZDR进行质量控制;利用广州S波段双偏振雷达(CINRAD/SAD)和地面二维雨滴谱观测对XPAR-D雷达的数据质量进行分析,结果表明XPAR-D雷达与CINRAD/SAD雷达的回波强度基本一致,由于XPAR-D雷达灵敏度较低,导致对弱回波的探测能力低于CINRAD/SAD雷达。将XPAR-D雷达测量的反射率因子ZH与雨滴谱仪反演的ZH对比,两者相变化趋势基本一致;XPAR-D雷达差分反射率ZDR、差分相移率KDP与ZH的一致性较好,其中KDP约是CINRAD/SAD雷达的3.3倍;XPAR-D雷达偏振参量能有效反映融化层的偏振特征;一次局地性强降水的观测结果表明相控阵雷达能够精细监测降水的触发、演变过程以及不同降水强度的微物理特征。 相似文献
59.
The strong destructive winds during tornadoes can greatly threaten human life and destroy property. The increasing availability of visual and remote observations, especially by Doppler weather radars, is of great value in understanding tornado formation and issuing warnings to the public. In this study, we present the first documented tornado over water detected by a state-of-the-art dual-polarization phased-array radar (dual-PAR) in China. In contrast to new-generation weather radars, the dual-PAR shows great advantages in tornado detection for its high spatial resolution, reliable polarimetric variables, and rapid-scan strategy. The polarimetric signature of copolar cross-correlation coefficient with anomalously low magnitude appears to be effective for verifying a tornado and thus is helpful for issuing tornado warnings. The Guangdong Meteorological Service has been developing an experimental X-band dual-PAR network in the Pearl River Delta with the goal of deploying at least 40 advanced dual-PARs and other dual-polarization weather radars before 2035. This network is the first quasi-operational X-band dual-PAR network with unprecedented high coverage in the globe. With such high-performance close-range PARs, efficient operational nowcasting and warning services for small-scale, rapidly evolving, and damaging weather (e.g., tornadoes, localized heavy rainfall, microbursts, and hail) can be expected. 相似文献
60.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2022,13(6):101384
Underground subway platforms are among the world’s busiest public transportation systems, but the airborne transmission mechanism of respiratory infections on these platforms has been rarely studied. Here, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling is used to investigate the airflow patterns and infection risks in an island platform under two common ventilation modes: Mode 1- both sides have air inlets and outlets; Mode 2- air inlets are present at the two sides and outlets are present in the middle. Under the investigated scenario, airflow structure is characterized by the ventilation jet and human thermal plumes. Their interaction with the infector’s breathing jet imposes the front passenger under the highest exposure risk by short-range airborne route, with intake fractions up to 2.57% (oral breathing) or 0.63% (nasal breathing) under Mode 1; oral breathing of the infector may impose higher risks for the front passenger compared with nasal breathing. Pathogen are efficiently diluted as they travel further, in particular to adjacent crowds. The maximum and median value of intake fractions of passengers in adjacent crowds are respectively 0.093% and 0.016% (oral breathing), and 0.073% and 0.014% (nasal breathing) under Mode 1. Compared with Mode 1, the 2nd mode minimizes the interaction of ventilation jet and breathing jet, where the maximum intake fraction is only 0.34%, and the median value in the same crowd and other crowds are reduced by 23–63%. Combining published quanta generation rate data of COVID-19 and influenza infectors, the predicted maximum and median infection risks for passengers in the same crowds are respectively 1.46%–40.23% and 0.038%–1.67% during the 3–10 min waiting period, which are more sensitive to ventilation rate and exposure time compared with return air. This study can provide practical guidance for the prevention of respiratory infections in subway platforms. 相似文献