The increasing predominance of extreme precipitation in Southwest China since the late 1970s          下载免费PDF全文

Guowei Zheng  Yang Li  Quanliang Chen  Xin Zhou  Guolu Gao  Minggang Li  Ting Duan 《大气和海洋科学快报》2022,15(5):100227

Extreme precipitation events cause severe environmental and societal damage worldwide. Southwest China (SWC) is sensitive to such effects because of its overpopulation, underdevelopment, and fragile ecosystems. Using daily observations from 108 rain-gauge stations, the authors investigated the frequency of extreme precipitation events and their contribution to total precipitation in SWC since the late 1970s. Results indicate that total precipitation is decreasing insignificantly, but rainfall-events frequency is decreasing significantly, whereas the region is experiencing more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events. Note that although fewer stations are statistically significant, about 60% of the rain-gauge stations show an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation. Furthermore, there is an increasing trend in the contribution of total extreme precipitation to total precipitation, with extreme precipitation becoming dominant in the increasingly arid SWC region. The results carry important implications for policymakers, who should place greater emphasis on extreme precipitation and associated floods and landslides when drafting water-resource management policies.摘要本文分析了中国西南20世纪70年代末以来极端降水事件的频率, 强度及其对总降水的贡献. 结果表明, 该地区约60%的降水站点极端降水的频率和强度正在增加, 而大多数站点总降水频率明显减少. 同时极端降水总量对总降水量的贡献有显著增加的趋势, 极端降水在日益干旱的中国西南地区变得更具主导性. 研究结果提醒应更加重视极端降水及其可能引发的次生灾害, 如洪水, 山体滑坡等.  相似文献   

基于快速流式算法的局部余弦相似属性     

周紫嫣  刘洋  刘财  王青晗  郑植升 《地球物理学报》2022,65(1):349-359

相似性是一种常用的衡量不同图像之间差异程度的属性,广泛应用于地震数据处理环节.由于地震数据本质上是非平稳的,局部相似性比全局相似性更适用于刻画地震数据的时-空变化特征.现有的局部相似属性可以通过正则化最小二乘问题进行计算,但是其计算过程需要大量的计算时间和数据存储空间,难以适应当前的海量数据处理任务.本文提出了一种基于快速流式算法的局部余弦相似性计算方法,其采取局部数据递推的模式,避免迭代算法带来的计算负担,在保证计算精度的前提下能够快速地表征不同数据之间的差异.流式局部余弦相似性可以用于解决不同的地震数据处理问题,包括叠前地震数据加权叠加、多波多分量数据纵横波速度比估计以及基于构造预测的断层检测,更加适用于现阶段的宽方位角和高密度采集数据的处理流程.理论模型和实际数据测试结果可以验证流式局部余弦相似性算法的效率优势和解决不同地震数据处理问题的有效性.  相似文献   

冲-洪积平原1:5万区域地质调查技术方法探索     

赵勇 《中国地质调查》2021,8(1):60-70

首都地区规划建设工作主要分布于平原松散地层之上,第四纪地质研究显得尤为重要。依托近几年来在北京地区开展的平原覆盖区1:5万区域地质调查和活动断裂专项调查项目成果,系统总结了平原区第四纪区域地质调查与评价的主要工作手段和技术方法,及其在解决第四纪基础地质问题及生态环境中所起的作用。通过平原区区域地质调查工作,可查明第四纪精细地质结构、含水层分布特征,精确厘定活动断裂位置及其活动时限,探讨自然环境演化序列与人类活动关系等,为城市规划、重大工程建设和应急水源地水资源合理开采提供基础地学数据。研究成果对首都城市减灾防灾、生态环境演变研究具有重要地学支撑作用。  相似文献   

Sunspot numbers based on historic records in the 1610s: Early telescopic observations by Simon Marius and others     

R. Neuhuser  D. L. Neuhuser 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2016,337(6):581-620

Hoyt & Schatten (1998) claim that Simon Marius would have observed the sun from 1617 Jun 7 to 1618 Dec 31 (Gregorian calendar) all days, except three short gaps in 1618, but would never have detected a sunspot – based on a quotation from Marius in Wolf (1857), but mis‐interpreted by Hoyt & Schatten. Marius himself specified in early 1619 that for one and a half year... rather few or more often no spots could be detected... which was never observed before (Marius 1619). The generic statement by Marius can be interpreted such that the active day fraction was below 0.5 (but not zero) from fall 1617 to spring 1619 and that it was 1 before fall 1617 (since August 1611). Hoyt & Schatten cite Zinner (1952), who referred to Zinner (1942), where observing dates by Marius since 1611 are given but which were not used by Hoyt & Schatten. We present all relevant texts from Marius where he clearly stated that he observed many spots in different form on and since 1611 Aug 3 (Julian) = Aug 13 (Greg.) (on the first day together with Ahasverus Schmidnerus); 14 spots on 1612 May 30 (Julian) = Jun 9 (Greg.), which is consistent with drawings by Galilei and Jungius for that day, the latter is shown here for the first time; at least one spot on 1611 Oct 3 and/or 11 (Julian), i.e. Oct 13 and/or 21 (Greg.), when he changed his sunspot observing technique; he also mentioned that he has drawn sunspots for 1611 Nov 17 (Julian) = Nov 27 (Greg.); in addition to those clearly datable detections, there is evidence in the texts for regular observations. For all the information that can be compared to other observers, the data from Marius could be confirmed, so that his texts are highly credible. We also correct several shortcomings or apparent errors in the database by Hoyt & Schatten (1998) regarding 1612 (Harriot), 1615 (Saxonius, Tard´e), 1616 (Tard´e), 1617–1619 (Marius, Riccioli/Argoli), and Malapert (for 1618, 1620, and 1621). Furthermore, Schmidnerus, Cysat, David & Johann Fabricius, Tanner, Perovius, Argoli, and Wely are not mentioned as observers for 1611, 1612, 1618, 1620, and 1621 in Hoyt & Schatten. Marius and Schmidnerus are among the earliest datable telescopic sunspot observers (1611 Aug 3, Julian), namely after Harriot, the two Fabricius (father and son), Scheiner, and Cysat. Sunspots records by Malapert from 1618 to 1621 show that the last low‐latitude spot was seen in Dec 1620, while the first high‐latitude spots were noticed in June and Oct 1620, so that the Schwabe cycle turnover (minimum) took place around that time, which is also consistent with the sunspot trend mentioned by Marius and with naked‐eye spots and likely true aurorae. We consider discrepancies in the Hoyt & Schatten (1998) systematics, we compile the active day fractions for the 1610s, and we critically discuss very recent publications on Marius which include the following Maunder Minimum. Our work should be seen as a call to go back to the historical sources. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Application of the relativistic precession model to the accreting milisecond X‐ray pulsar IGR J17511–3057     

I. Zh. Stefanov 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2016,337(3):246-253

The observation of a pair of simultaneous twin kHz QPOs in the power density spectrum of a neutron star or a black hole allows its mass‐angular‐momentum relation to be constrained. Situations in which the observed simultaneous pairs are more than one allow the different models of the kHz QPOs to be falsified. Discrepancy between the estimates coming from the different pairs would call the used model into question. In the current paper, the relativistic precession model is applied to the twin kHz QPOs that appear in the light curves of three groups of observations of the accreting millisecond X‐ray pulsar IGR J17511–3057. It was found that the predictions of one of the groups are practically in conflict with the other two. Another interesting result is that the region in which the kHz QPOs have been born is rather broad and extends quite far from the ISCO. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

CTK‐II & RTK: The CCD‐cameras operated at the auxiiary telescopes of the University Observatory Jena     

M. Mugrauer 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2016,337(3):226-234

The Cassegrain‐Teleskop‐Kamera (CTK‐II) and the Refraktor‐Teleskop‐Kamera (RTK) are two CCD‐imagers which are operated at the 25 cm Cassegrain and 20cm refractor auxiliary telescopes of the University Observatory Jena. This article describes the main characteristics of these instruments. The properties of the CCD‐detectors, the astrometry, the image quality, and the detection limits of both CCD‐cameras, as well as some results of ongoing observing projects, carried out with these instruments, are presented. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Mattig's relation and dynamical distance indicators     

P. Teerikorpi  Yu. V. Baryshev 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2016,337(3):315-317

We discuss how the redshift (Mattig) method in the Friedmann cosmology relates to dynamical distance indicators based on Newton's gravity (Teerikorpi 2011). It belongs to the class of indicators where the relevant length inside the system is the distance itself (in this case the proper metric distance). As the Friedmann model has a Newtonian analogy, its use to infer distances has instructive similarities to classical dynamical distance indicators. In view of the theoretical exact linear distance‐velocity law, we emphasize that it is conceptually correct to derive the cosmological distance via the route: redshift (primarily observed) → space expansion velocity (not directly observed) → metric distance (physical length in “cm”). Important properties of the proper metric distance are summarized. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Chemical spots on the surface of the strongly magnetic Herbig Ae star HD 101412     

S. P. Jrvinen  S. Hubrig  M. Schller  I. Ilyin  T. A. Carroll  H. Korhonen 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2016,337(3):329-338

Due to the knowledge of the rotation period and the presence of a rather strong surface magnetic field, the sharp‐lined young Herbig Ae star HD 101412 with a rotation period of 42 d has become one of the most well‐studied targets among the Herbig Ae stars. High‐resolution HARPS polarimetric spectra of HD 101412 were recently obtained on seven different epochs. Our study of the spectral variability over the part of the rotation cycle covered by HARPS observations reveals that the line profiles of the elements Mg, Si, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Sr are clearly variable while He exhibits variability that is opposite to the behaviour of the other elements studied. Since classical Ap stars usually show a relationship between the magnetic field geometry and the distribution of element spots, we used in our magnetic field measurements different line samples belonging to the three elements with the most numerous spectral lines, Ti, Cr, and Fe. Over the time interval covered by the available spectra, the longitudinal magnetic field changes sign from negative to positive polarity. The distribution of field values obtained using Ti, Cr, and Fe lines is, however, completely different compared to the magnetic field values determined in previous low‐resolution FORS 2 measurements, where hydrogen Balmer lines are the main contributors to the magnetic field measurements, indicating the presence of concentration of the studied iron‐peak elements in the region of the magnetic equator. Further, we discuss the potential role of contamination by the surrounding warm circumstellar matter in the appearance of Zeeman features obtained using Ti lines. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Optimisation of the Population Monte Carlo algorithm: Application to constraining isocurvature models with cosmic microwave background data     

D. Moodley  K. Moodley 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2016,337(6):672-682

We optimise the parameters of the Population Monte Carlo algorithm using numerical simulations. The optimisation is based on an efficiency statistic related to the number of samples evaluated prior to convergence, and is applied to a D ‐dimensional Gaussian distribution to derive optimal scaling laws for the algorithm parameters. More complex distributions such as the banana and bimodal distributions are also studied. We apply these results to a cosmological parameter estimation problem that uses CMB anisotropy data from the WMAP nine‐year release to constrain a six parameter adiabatic model and a fifteen parameter admixture model, consisting of correlated adiabatic and isocurvature perturbations. In the case of the adiabatic model and the admixture model we find that the number of sample points increase by factors of 3 and 20, respectively, relative to the optimal Gaussian case. This is due to degeneracies in the underlying parameter space. The WMAP nine‐year data constrain the admixture model to have an isocurvature fraction of 36.3 ± 2.8 %. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

利用风廓线雷达研究郑州机场低空急流特征及其对飞行的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李健  栗敬仁  田军 《热带气象学报》2019,35(3):343-352

利用2016、2017年郑州机场高分辨率边界层风廓线雷达半小时平均观测资料, 对机场上空低空急流时空分布特征进行统计研究, 结果表明:夏末、秋季低空急流出现次数相对较少, 春季、夏初是高发时期, 冬季易出现较强的超低空急流, 只有春季风速从低层到高层呈现先增大后减小、再增大的变化过程, 8月末可能是急流的时空转换期; 夜间和凌晨是高发时段, 白天降低30%~40%, 一般情况下, 00—12时(世界时, 下同)急流较弱, 12时后明显增强向上发展, 19时开始减弱, 持续至21时; 急流中心最大风速一半以上在12~18 m/s, 高度集中在60~180 m和300~900 m, 超低空急流占大部分, 夜间出现最大风速的概率远高于白天; 低空急流发生高度大部分在飞机起飞或着陆的范围内, 使飞机复飞概率增加, 对夜间航班影响更大。   相似文献