A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa     

Herslund  Lise Byskov  Jalayer  Fatemeh  Jean-Baptiste  Nathalie  J&#;rgensen  Gertrud  Kabisch  Sigrun  Kombe  Wilbard  Lindley  Sarah  Nyed  Patrik Karlsson  Pauleit  Stephan  Printz  Andreas  Vedeld  Trond 《Natural Hazards》2015,82(2):149-172

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.

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Assessing hydrological model predictive uncertainty using stochastically generated geological models          下载免费PDF全文

Xin He  Anker Lajer Højberg  Flemming Jørgensen  Jens Christian Refsgaard 《水文研究》2015,29(19):4293-4311

In distributed and coupled surface water–groundwater modelling, the uncertainty from the geological structure is unaccounted for if only one deterministic geological model is used. In the present study, the geological structural uncertainty is represented by multiple, stochastically generated geological models, which are used to develop hydrological model ensembles for the Norsminde catchment in Denmark. The geological models have been constructed using two types of field data, airborne geophysical data and borehole well log data. The use of airborne geophysical data in constructing stochastic geological models and followed by the application of such models to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty for both surface water and groundwater have not been previously studied. The results show that the hydrological ensemble based on geophysical data has a lower level of simulation uncertainty, but the ensemble based on borehole data is able to encapsulate more observation points for stream discharge simulation. The groundwater simulations are in general more sensitive to the changes in the geological structure than the stream discharge simulations, and in the deeper groundwater layers, there are larger variations between simulations within an ensemble than in the upper layers. The relationship between hydrological prediction uncertainties measured as the spread within the hydrological ensembles and the spatial aggregation scale of simulation results has been analysed using a representative elementary scale concept. The results show a clear increase of prediction uncertainty as the spatial scale decreases. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Groundwater monitoring in Denmark: characteristics, perspectives and comparison with other countries   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lisbeth Flindt Jørgensen  Jens Stockmarr 《Hydrogeology Journal》2009,17(4):827-842

More than 99% of water use in Denmark is based on groundwater. Denmark has had a comprehensive national groundwater-monitoring programme since 1988 based on 74 well catchment areas and six small agricultural catchments with more than 1,500 screens at different depths for regular, mostly annual, water quality sampling. In addition, water samples from 10,000 abstraction wells are analysed every 3–5 years. The water is analysed for main components, inorganic trace elements, organic micro pollutants, and pesticides and their metabolites. A unique feature is the 20-year time-series data of inorganic pollutants. Groundwater modelling supports traditional monitoring to improve the conceptual geological understanding and to assess the quantitative status and the interaction between groundwater and surface water. The programme has been continuously adjusted to incorporate new knowledge from research programmes and meet new policy demands, currently the European Union Water Framework Directive, particularly with respect to an increased focus on quantitative aspects and on the groundwater/surface water interaction. The strengths and weaknesses of the Danish programme are assessed and compared with other national groundwater-monitoring programmes. Issues discussed include: strategic considerations for monitoring design, the link between research and monitoring, and adoption of responses to climate changes.  相似文献   

The Auroral Station in Adventdalen, Svalbard     

T Svenφe 《极地研究(英文版)》2002,13(1)

1　ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅＡｕｒｏｒａｌＳｔａｔｉｏｎｉｎＡｄｖｅｎｔｄａｌｅｎｗａｓｂｕｉｌｔｉｎ 1 978ａｎｄｈａｓｗｏｒｋｅｄａｓａｎｏｐｔｉｃａｌｓｉｔｅｆｏｒｇｒｏｕｎｄ -ｂａｓｅｄｏｂｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｔｈｅｄａｙｓｉｄｅａｎｄｎｉｇｈｔｓｉｄｅａｕｒｏｒａｉｎｔｈｅｐｏｌａｒｃａｐ .Ｆｉｇｕｒｅ 1ｓｈｏｗｓａｐｈｏｔｏｇｒａｐｈｏｆｔｈｅｓｔａｔｉｏｎｔｏｇｅｔｈｅｒｗｉｔｈａｔｙｐｉｃａｌｓｔｏｒｍｔｙｐｅａｕｒｏｒａ(Ｓｉｍｍｏｎｓｅｔａｌ.1 996) .Ｔｈｅｓｔａｔｉｏ…  相似文献   

Differences in physiological response to increased seawater temperature in nearshore and offshore corals in northern Vietnam   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Faxneld S  Jörgensen TL  Nguyen ND  Nyström M  Tedengren M 《Marine environmental research》2011,71(3):225-233

Effects of elevated seawater temperature show high spatial heterogeneity and variation within and among coral species. The objective of this study was to investigate how two coral species, Porites lutea and Galaxea fascicularis, from two high latitude reefs differently exposed to chronic disturbance, respond to elevated seawater temperatures. Corals were collected from reefs nearshore (i.e. subjected to high sediment load, higher chlorophyll α concentrations, turbidity etc.) and offshore (i.e. less exposed). The corals were exposed in the lab to gradually increasing temperatures (25.5-33.5?°C) for 72?h after which they were allowed to recover to ambient temperature (25.5?°C) for 24?h. Production and respiration were measured after 24, 48, 72 and 96?h. The results show that P. lutea from nearshore reefs suffered an initial decrease in gross primary production/respiration (GP/R) ratio after 24?h, after only a moderate temperature increase (+2?°C, from 25.5 to 27.5?°C), while there was no difference in GP/R ratio between heat-exposed and controls the other days, indicating that the chronic disturbance in the nearshore reef had no effect on their thermotolerance. Furthermore, P. lutea from the offshore reef showed a decrease in GP/R ratio both after 24?h and 72?h (33.5?°C) of exposure. In comparison, G. fascicularis showed a decrease in GP/R ratio after 48?h, 72?h and 96?h of exposure for the nearshore corals. Also, after 72?h these corals had withdrawn their polyps. There were no differences between heat-treated and controls for the offshore G. fascicularis. This implies that the chronically disturbed G. fascicularis had lower thermotolerance when exposed to a temperature increase. This study, hence, shows that the response of corals to elevated seawater temperature varies with species and environmental background history.  相似文献   

Holocene tephra deposits in the northern Okinawa Trough     

LIU Yanguang  OLE Bjφrslev Nielsen  ZHANG Deyu  DU Dewen  JAN Heinemeier  WU Yonghua 《海洋学报(英文版)》2006,25(1):78-89

1 Introduction Volcanic activities have played an important role in the process of global climatic changes. Being good stratigraphic markers, widespread tephra layers in ma- rine sediments can provide reliable evidences for the regional paleoceanographic …  相似文献   

Nitrate vulnerability assessment of aquifers     

Birgitte Hansen  Torben O. Sonnenborg  Ingelise Møller  Jens Demant Bernth  Anne-Sophie Høyer  Per Rasmussen  Peter B.E. Sandersen  Flemming Jørgensen 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(12):999

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Biogeochemistry of sulfur and iron in Thioploca-colonized surface sediments in the upwelling area off central chile     

Jakob Zopfi  Bo Barker Jørgensen 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2008,72(3):827-843

The biogeochemistry of sedimentary sulfur was investigated on the continental shelf off central Chile at water depths between 24 and 88 m under partial influence of an oxygen minimum zone. Dissolved and solid iron and sulfur species, including the sulfur intermediates sulfite, thiosulfate, and elemental sulfur, were analyzed at high resolution in the top 20 cm. All stations were characterized by high rates of sulfate reduction, but only the sediments within the Bay of Concepción contained dissolved sulfide. Due to advection and/or in-situ reoxidation of sulfide, dissolved sulfate was close to bottom water values. Whereas the concentrations of sulfite and thiosulfate were mostly in the submicromolar range, elemental sulfur was by far the dominant sulfur intermediate. Although the large nitrate- and sulfur-storing bacteria Thioploca were abundant, the major part of S⁰ was located extracellularly. The distribution of sulfur species and dissolved iron suggests the reaction of sulfide with FeOOH as an important pathway for sulfide oxidation and sulfur intermediate formation. This is in agreement with the sulfur isotope composition of co-existing elemental sulfur and iron monosulfides. In the Bay of Concepción, sulfur isotope data suggest that pyrite formation proceeds via the reaction of FeS with polysulfides or H₂S. At the shelf stations, on the other hand, pyrite was significantly depleted in ³⁴S relative to its potential precursors FeS and S⁰. Isotope mass balance considerations suggest further that pyritization at depth includes light sulfide, potentially originating from bacterial sulfur disproportionation. The δ³⁴S-values of pyrite down to −38‰ vs. V-CDT are among the lightest found in organic-rich marine sediments. Seasonal variations in the sulfur isotope composition of dissolved sulfate indicated a dynamic non-steady-state sulfur cycle in the surface sediments. The ¹⁸O content of porewater sulfate increased with depth at all sites compared to the bottom water composition due to intracellular isotope exchange reactions during microbial sulfur transformations.  相似文献   

Anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) in marine sediments from the Skagerrak (Denmark): I. Geochemical and microbiological analyses     

Nina J. Knab  Barry A. Cragg  R. John Parkes  Bo B. Jørgensen 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2008,72(12):2868-2879

The organic rich sediments of the Skagerrak contain high quantities of shallow gas of mostly biogenic origin that is transported to the sediment surface by diffusion. The sulfate methane transition zone (SMTZ), where anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) and sulfate reduction occur, functions as a methane barrier for this upward diffusing methane.To investigate the regulation of AOM and sulfate reduction rates (SRR) and the controls on the efficiency of methane consumption, pore water concentrations, and microbial rates of AOM, sulfate reduction and methanogenesis were determined in three gravity cores collected along the slope of the Norwegian Trench in the Skagerrak. SRR occurred in two distinct peaks, at the sediment surface and the SMTZ, the latter often exceeding the peak AOM rates that occurred at the bottom of the SMTZ. Highest rates of both AOM and SRR were observed in a core from a pockmark, where advective methane transport occurred, generating high methane and sulfate fluxes. But even at this site with a shallow SMTZ, the entire flux of methane was oxidized below the sediment surface. AOM, SRR and methanogenesis seem to be closely associated and strongly regulated by sulfate concentrations, which were, in turn, regulated by the methane flux. Rate measurements of SRR, AOM and methanogenesis revealed a tight coupling of these processes. Bicarbonate-based methanogenesis occurred at moderate sulfate concentrations (>5 mM) above the AOM zone but seemed to be inhibited in the depth where AOM occurred. The unbalanced stoichiometry of AOM and SRR in the SMTZ was more pronounced in rate measurements than in methane and sulfate fluxes, and seemed more likely be related to enhanced SRR in this zone than an underestimation of methane fluxes.  相似文献   

On the extension of the wind profile over homogeneous terrain beyond the surface boundary layer   总被引：7，自引：5，他引：2  

Sven-Erik Gryning  Ekaterina Batchvarova  Burghard Brümmer  Hans Jørgensen  Søren Larsen 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,124(2):251-268

Analysis of profiles of meteorological measurements from a 160 m high mast at the National Test Site for wind turbines at Høvsøre (Denmark) and at a 250 m high TV tower at Hamburg (Germany) shows that the wind profile based on surface-layer theory and Monin-Obukhov scaling is valid up to a height of 50–80 m. At higher levels deviations from the measurements progressively occur. For applied use an extension to the wind profile in the surface layer is formulated for the entire boundary layer, with emphasis on the lowest 200–300 m and considering only wind speeds above 3 m s^?1 at 10 m height. The friction velocity is taken to decrease linearly through the boundary layer. The wind profile length scale is composed of three component length scales. In the surface layer the first length scale is taken to increase linearly with height with a stability correction following Monin-Obukhov similarity. Above the surface layer the second length scale (L _MBL ) becomes independent of height but not of stability, and at the top of the boundary layer the third length scale is assumed to be negligible. A simple model for the combined length scale that controls the wind profile and its stability dependence is formulated by inverse summation. Based on these assumptions the wind profile for the entire boundary layer is derived. A parameterization of L _MBL is formulated using the geostrophic drag law, which relates friction velocity and geostrophic wind. The empirical parameterization of the resistance law functions A and B in the geostrophic drag law is uncertain, making it impractical. Therefore an expression for the length scale, L _MBL , for applied use is suggested, based on measurements from the two sites.  相似文献