我国9大气候区降水特性及其物理成因的研究Ⅰ——基本特性分析   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

苗娟  林振山 《热带气象学报》2003,19(4):377-388

首先利用旱涝Z指数对全国9大气候区的旱涝进行了评定，并给出我国9大气候区旱涝Z指数的分布图。分析结果表明，1950年代我国除新疆地区处于偏早期外，其它几个区都处于多雨量期，1960年代由多雨向少雨转变的时期，1970年代——1980年代中期我国大部分地区处于雨量偏少期；1990年之后我国各个区的雨量都有所增加。此外，还应用Morlet小波变化对我国9大气候区降水的旱涝周期变化、旱涝分型及变化趋势进行了分析。研究结果表明：在16年、32年层次变化上，各气候区在不同时间段上，8年层次上降水的变化出现了一定的规律：东北、华北在1980年之后存在1年位相差；而长江中下游、江南及华南三者之间在1951～1970年时段上依次有着2年的位相差；长江中下游、内蒙及新疆之间依次存在着3年位相差。  相似文献   

Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Muthiah Perumal  Bhabagrahi Sahoo 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(2):415-422

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.  相似文献   

黔东南夏季旱涝指数及干旱气候特征分析     

梁平  冯晓云韦波 《气象科技》2006,34(5):563-566

用当前降水和蒸发因子以及前期降水因子定义了黔东南夏季旱涝指数,用此指数计算了黔东南1971~2000年的夏旱指数,同时对各年的夏季旱涝进行了定级,检验证明,此指标对黔东南夏季旱涝等级的划分比日常业务中使用的降水百分率对黔东南夏季旱涝的等级划分更符合实际情况。讨论了黔东南夏季干旱的时空变化特征,得出结论:①夏季干旱主要出现在7~8月,6月干旱较轻,7月重旱出现的概率最大,8月次之;②20世纪70年代干旱主要出现在7月,80年代整个夏季均少雨干旱,以中等以上干旱为主,90年代降水较多,没有重旱出现;③黔东南州的夏季干旱,东南部出现的概率最大,西北部最小;但7月干旱多出现在东北部地区,8月的干旱西北部和东南部多于西南部和东北部。  相似文献   

近50 a渭河流域洪水成因分析及防治对策   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6  

张琼华  赵景波 《中国沙漠》2006,26(1):117-121

 通过对近50 a渭河流域洪水的年际变化、月际变化和潼关高程变化的综合分析得出，造成该流域洪水灾害的原因有降水量年内分配不均和年际变化大，滩面淤积加重，支流河口淤塞以及河势、流态的恶化等。针对这些原因，根据渭河流域洪水灾害的特点，提出了相应的防治措施，即降低下游高程，减少河道的淤积，增大河道泄洪能力；利用水库进行调水调沙，引进客水冲刷渭河下游；防洪工程要除险加固，提高防洪标准与抗洪能力；恢复林草植被，遏止水土流失，从源头上控制泥沙入河等。  相似文献   

Flood seasonality and generating conditions in the Tay catchment, Scotland from 1200 to present   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lindsey J McEwen 《Area》2006,38(1):47-64

The new maximum recorded river flows in Scotland since 1988 have triggered widespread interest in whether floods are becoming more frequent and in the conditions that generate floods of different magnitudes and frequencies. There are questions about the longer-term variability in flood-generating characteristics, and whether there are past analogues for present hydroclimatic variability. The present paper builds on previous work reconstructing a detailed historic flood chronology for the Tay, the largest catchment in Scotland, and its tributaries over the past 800 years, extending the gauged discharge record (1952 onwards). It categorizes flood-generating factors in the Tay catchment and analyses the hydro-meteorological conditions that have generated extreme and moderate floods over a historical period. This work is placed in a broader literature context of historical 'climaxes of storminess', periods of higher storm frequency, flood patterns observed in Scotland and Europe during the Little Ice Age and longer-term rainfall and temperature patterns. The paper concludes that the variability in flood-generating characteristics is highly dependent on the timescale of observation. Inevitably the relative dominance of winter and early spring flooding can vary from year to year and within specific time-periods, but so can the level of augmentation of the flood series with summer and autumn floods to produce notable 'flood years' and flood clusters. The Tay provides a good 'all-Scotland surrogate' for historical flood patterns, reflecting its gathering areas in eastern and western Scotland. The value of a historical approach to the assessment of flood seasonality and generating characteristics is clearly demonstrated.  相似文献   

Urban steeplands in the tropics: an environment of accelerated erosion     

Avijit Gupta  Rafi Ahmad 《GeoJournal》1999,49(2):143-150

The developing countries at present have a high urban growth rate that is likely to continue for at least another quarter-century. In addition, many of these urban centres are located in the Neogene plate boundary zones and are subject to multiple earthquake and volcanic hazards. Slope failures and accelerated surface and channel erosion are particularly severe in cities near active plate margins, and in areas affected also by tropical cyclones. We discuss two extreme cases: Singapore and Kingston (Jamaica). Singapore is located in a stable environment and the urbanization related problems of flood and slope instability have been reduced by proper building and drainage practices at a considerable cost. In Kingston, the external disturbances are repetitive, large-scale, and very difficult to control. The fast-growing cities in the tropics need to be carefully monitored, especially when located in an unstable physical environment. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

华北汛期旱涝与中高纬大气环流异常   总被引：42，自引：10，他引：32  

赵声蓉  宋正山 《高原气象》1999,18(4):535-540

利用１９８０￣１９９４年ＮＣＥＰ／ＮＣＡＲ月平均高度场和我国测站降水量资料,通过奇异值分解方法探讨了华北汛期降水与５００,２００ｈＰａ欧亚吭纬大气环流这关系,得到与华北汛期旱涝有关的两类异常环流型。  相似文献   

Late Pleistocene and Holocene environments in the Nile basin     

Martin A.J. Williams   《Global and Planetary Change》2009,69(1-2):1-15

Owing to the very gently sloping nature of the flood plain in the lower White Nile valley, which is underlain by a former lake-bed, the depositional record in that area is unusually well preserved. In Egypt and along the Blue Nile phases of erosion have destroyed segments of the sedimentary record, but the White Nile sequence is a good proxy for both the main Nile and the Blue Nile. During the last 15 ka, at least, times of high flow in the Blue Nile and main Nile were synchronous with those in the White Nile.Not all the White Nile flood deposits have been preserved but calibrated radiocarbon dates obtained on fossil freshwater and amphibious Pila shells and fish bones indicate that White Nile levels were high around 14.7–13.1 ka, 9.7–9.0 ka, 7.9–7.6 ka, 6.3 ka and 3.2–2.8 ka. The Blue Nile record is more fragmentary and that of the main Nile even more so except for the Holocene Nile delta. Calibrated radiocarbon ages for high Blue Nile flows indicate very high flood levels towards 13.9–13.2 ka, 8.6 ka, 7.7 ka and 6.3 ka.Incision by the Blue Nile and main Nile has caused progressive incision in the White Nile amounting to at least 4 m since the terminal Pleistocene  15 ka ago and at least 2 m over the past 9 ka. The Blue Nile seems to have cut down at least 10 m since  15 ka and at least 4 m since 9 ka. The time-transgressive and relatively late inception of plant domestication in the Nile valley may partly reflect this history of incision. Nile incision would propagate upstream into the White Nile valley, draining previously swampy areas along the valley floor, which would then become accessible to cultivation.  相似文献   

1999年全球重大气候事件概述   总被引：13，自引：6，他引：7  

李晓燕 《气象》2000,26(4):16-19

１９９９年,全球气候仍持续较常年偏暖。赤道中、东太平洋的强拉尼娜事件维持并发展,对全球特别是热带地区的气候产生了较明显的影响。欧洲、北冬季连续遭受暴风雪袭击,出现严寒天气,夏季又经受了高温热浪的袭击。全球许多地区暴雨频繁,亚洲南部、欧洲中部、北美南部、南美北部以及非洲的一些地区都遇到了严重的洪涝灾害;而北美中部、西亚等地却干旱少雨,发生了凡十年来最严重的旱灾。北美、南亚、澳大利亚东北部先后遭到罕见  相似文献   

OBSERVATIONS ON THE QUATERNARY GEOLOGY OF THE LADAKH RANGE, NORTHWEST INDIAN HIMALAYA     

W. A. Mitchell  P. Coxon 《地学前缘》2000,(Z1)

OBSERVATIONS ON THE QUATERNARY GEOLOGY OF THE LADAKH RANGE, NORTHWEST INDIAN HIMALAYA  相似文献