Comparative analysis of fuzzy inference systems for water consumption time series prediction   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mahmut Firat  Mustafa Erkan Turan  Mehmet Ali Yurdusev   《Journal of Hydrology》2009,374(3-4):235-241

Two types of fuzzy inference systems (FIS) are used for predicting municipal water consumption time series. The FISs used include an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a Mamdani fuzzy inference systems (MFIS). The prediction models are constructed based on the combination of the antecedent values of water consumptions. The performance of ANFIS and MFIS models in training and testing phases are compared with the observations and the best fit model is identified according to the selected performance criteria. The results demonstrated that the ANFIS model is superior to MFIS models and can be successfully applied for prediction of water consumption time series.  相似文献   

Sources of groundwater recharge at the confluence of the Niles, Sudan     

E. A. Farah  E. M. A. Mustafa  H. Kumai 《Environmental Geology》2000,39(6):667-672

 Due to the rapid expansion of the Sudanese capital city far away from its three Niles, it has become a necessity to estimate the sustainability of the groundwater resources in this arid area. The purpose of this study – based on the stable-isotopic composition of groundwater – is to identify the sources of recharge and their relative contribution. The results show that groundwater infiltrated from the Niles under the present prevailing arid climate, with greater contribution from the White Nile compared to the Blue Nile, occupies an extension of 12 km from the Niles within the two main aquifers. Paleogroundwater of meteoric origin, infiltrated in the cooler pluvial earlier Holocene, occupies the outer zones beyond the Niles' effect. A rational utilization policy is recommended to preserve the finite groundwater resources. Received: 27 August 1998 · Accepted: 2 March 1999  相似文献   

Impact of sensor measurement error on sensor positioning in water quality monitoring networks   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Seong-Hee?Kim  Mustafa?M.?Aral  Yongsoon?Eun  Jisu?J.?Park  Chuljin?ParkEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(3):743-756

This paper studies the impact of sensor measurement error on designing a water quality monitoring network for a river system, and shows that robust sensor locations can be obtained when an optimization algorithm is combined with a statistical process control (SPC) method. Specifically, we develop a possible probabilistic model of sensor measurement error and the measurement error model is embedded into a simulation model of a river system. An optimization algorithm is used to find the optimal sensor locations that minimize the expected time until a spill detection in the presence of a constraint on the probability of detecting a spill. The experimental results show that the optimal sensor locations are highly sensitive to the variability of measurement error and false alarm rates are often unacceptably high. An SPC method is useful in finding thresholds that guarantee a false alarm rate no more than a pre-specified target level, and an optimization algorithm combined with the thresholds finds a robust sensor network.  相似文献   

The 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East: seismogenic sources     

Laurentiu Danciu  Karin Şeşetyan  Mine Demircioglu  Levent Gülen  Mehdi Zare  Roberto Basili  Ata Elias  Shota Adamia  Nino Tsereteli  Hilal Yalçın  Murat Utkucu  Muhammad Asif Khan  Mohammad Sayab  Khaled Hessami  Andrea N. Rovida  Massimiliano Stucchi  Jean-Pierre Burg  Arkady Karakhanian  Hektor Babayan  Mher Avanesyan  Tahir Mammadli  Mahmood Al-Qaryouti  Doğan Kalafat  Otar Varazanashvili  Mustafa Erdik  Domenico Giardini 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3465-3496

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Risk analysis of health,safety and environment in chemical industry integrating linguistic FMEA,fuzzy inference system and fuzzy DEA     

Jahangoshai Rezaee  Mustafa  Yousefi  Samuel  Eshkevari  Milad  Valipour  Mahsa  Saberi  Morteza 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(1):201-218

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Organizations are continuously endeavoring to provide a healthy work environment without any incident, by Health, Safety, and Environment...  相似文献   

Mitigating the effects of sand dunes on seismic data from the Rub al Khali basin,Saudi Arabia     

Mustafa Al-Marzooq  Mamadou S. Diallo  Vincent Etienne  Thierry Tonellot  SanLinn I. Kaka 《Geophysical Prospecting》2019,67(7):1825-1837

The Rub Al Khali region in Saudi Arabia is characterized by the presence of sand dunes separated by salt flats, also called Sabkhas. In general, the elevation of dunes in this region varies between 90 and 250 m above sea level. The presence of these sand dunes, along with the rapidly changing surface topography poses challenges for seismic data acquisition and processing. The high contrast in acoustic impedance between the dune base and the underlying formation often results in amplification of seismic waves that are recorded at stations located on the surface of sand dunes. Attempts to address the issue using conventional surface-consistent amplitude scaling methods without reducing these amplification effects generally fail, thus compromising the suitability of the processed data for amplitude versus offset analysis. In this study, we propose a new reference site technique to reduce the effects of sand dune amplification, enabling the production of data sets that are suitable for amplitude versus offset processing. The proposed technique uses a deterministic approach to derive surface-consistent, frequency-dependent de-amplification functions for shots and stations located on the dunes only. Two-dimensional synthetic and field data examples show that the technique significantly reduces the effects of sand dune amplification.  相似文献   

Tsunami risk assessment: economic,environmental and social dimensions     

Yavuz  Cuneyt  Kentel  Elcin  Aral  Mustafa M. 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(2):1413-1442

Natural Hazards - In this study, we present a novel methodology that may be used to analyze tsunami risk along coastal regions. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated for the...  相似文献   

Structural relationship between the Sea of Marmara Basin and the North Anatolian Fault Zone     

Mustafa Ergün  Erdeniz Özel 《地学学报》1995,7(2):278-288

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) zone is 1500 km long, extending almost up to the Greek mainland in the west. It is a seismically active right-lateral strike-slip fault that accommodates the relative motion between the Turkish block and Black Sea plate. The Sea of Marmara lies along the western part of the NAF and shows evidence of subsidence. In this area pure strike-slip motion of the fault zone changes into extensional strike-slip movement that is responsible for the creation of the Sea of Marmara and the North Aegean basins. The northern half of the Sea of Marmara is interpreted as a large pull-apart basin. This basin is subdivided into three smaller basins separated by strike-slip fault segments of uplifted blocks NE-SW. Basinal areas are covered by horizontally layered sedimentary sequences. Uplifted blocks have undergone compressional stress. All the blocks are subsiding and are undergoing vertical motions and rotations relative to one another. The uplifted blocks exhibit positive Bouguer gravity anomalies. According to gravity interpretation, there is relative crustal thinning under the Sea of Marmara. The northern side of the Sea of Marmara is marked by a distinctive deep-rooted magnetic anomaly, which is dissected and shifted southward by strike-slip faulting. The southern shelf areas of the Sea of Marmara are dominated by short-wavelength magnetic anomalies of shallow origin.  相似文献   

Geochemical and mantle-like isotopic (Nd, Sr) composition of the Baklan Granite from the Muratdağı Region (Banaz, Uşak), western Turkey: Implications for input of juvenile magmas in the source domains of western Anatolia Eocene–Miocene granites     

M. Selman Aydoan  Hakan oban  Mustafa Bozcu   mer Ak&#x;nc&#x; 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2008,33(3-4):155-176

The (late syn)- post-collisional magmatic activities of western and northwestern Anatolia are characterized by intrusion of a great number of granitoids. Amongst them, Baklan Granite, located in the southern part of the Muratdağı Region from the Menderes Massif (Banaz, Uşak), has peculiar chemical and isotopic characteristics. The Baklan rocks are made up by K-feldspar, plagioclase, quartz, biotite and hornblende, with accessory apatite, titanite and magnetite, and include mafic microgranular enclaves (MME). Chemically, the Baklan intrusion is of sub-alkaline character, belongs to the high-K, calc-alkaline series and displays features of I-type affinity. It is typically metaluminous to mildly peraluminous, and classified predominantly as granodiorite in composition. The spider and REE patterns show that the rocks are fractionated and have small negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu^* = 0.62–0.86), with the depletion of Nb, Ti, P and, to a lesser extent, Ba and Sr. The pluton was dated by the K–Ar method on the whole-rock, yielded ages between 17.8 ± 0.7 and 19.4 ± 0.9 Ma (Early Miocene). The intrusion possesses primitive low initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.70331–0.70452) and negative ε_Nd(t) values (−5.0 to −5.6). The chemical contrast between evolved Baklan rocks (SiO₂, 62–71 wt.%; Cr, 7–27 ppm; Ni, 5–11 ppm; Mg#, 45–51) and more primitive clinopyroxene-bearing monzonitic enclaves (SiO₂, 54–59 wt.%; Cr, 20–310 ppm; Ni, 10–70 ppm; Mg#, 50–61) signifies that there is no co-genetic link between host granite and enclaves. The chemical and isotopic characteristics of the Baklan intrusion argue for an important role of a juvenile component, such as underplated mantle-derived basalt, in the generation of the granitoids. Crustal contamination has not contributed significantly to their origin. However, with respect to those of the Baklan intrusion, the generation of the (late syn)- post-collisional intrusions with higher Nd(t) values from the western Anatolia require a much higher amount of juvenil component in their source domains.  相似文献   

Earthquake risk and its mitigation in Istanbul     

Mustafa Erdik  Eser Durukal 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(2):181-197

Physical and societal vulnerability to earthquakes and expected physical, social, economic, and industrial losses in Istanbul are outlined. This risk quantification has served as the basis for the Earthquake Masterplan. Risk-mitigation activity that was, and is, being conducted by several agencies and in different context and sectors are elaborated.  相似文献