Verifying warnings for point precipitation     

Willi Schmid  Marc Wüest   《Atmospheric Research》2005,77(1-4):347

Short-term risk forecasts of point precipitation are obtained with COTREC/RainCast, a technique for extrapolation of radar images. The risk forecasts are updated every 5 min for the next 0–2 h. Risk levels are defined for moderate, heavy and extreme precipitation. Warning messages are generated if, at the locations of 23 rain gauges, these risk levels are reached or exceeded. The time-resolved gauge data are used to judge if the warning messages are in time, early or late.Data over a period of 4 months (summer 2002) are used for verification. The largest number of warnings (1790) was obtained for moderate precipitation. About 55% of these warnings were in time, 23% were early and 22% were late. This finding is in a good agreement with the defined risk level for warnings (50%), indicating that the model for calculating the risk factors is reliable. Less warnings in time, and more late warnings were found for heavy and extreme precipitation. Hence, the risk levels need to be lowered for heavy and extreme precipitation, in order to reduce the number of late warnings.  相似文献   

Calibration of tipping bucket rain gauges in the Graz urban research area   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Vilmos Vasvri 《Atmospheric Research》2005,77(1-4):18

The Institute of Urban Water Management and Landscape Water Engineering of the Graz University of Technology (Austria) operates a hydrological research area in the City of Graz. In this urban research area precipitation and runoff data are collected by order of the municipality of Graz. At present precipitation data are measured by seven tipping bucket rain gauges. Comparative measurements have shown a deviation between the recorded and the actual precipitation intensity. This made the institute calibrate the rain gauges periodically. In the middle of the 1990s, the development of a field calibration kit was started. Based on the experiences with the first field calibration kit, a microprocessor controlled device was developed. With this calibration device, the tipping bucket rain gauges are calibrated at regular intervals. In this paper the calibration process and the current results for seven rain gauges are discussed. The calibration process is dynamic calibration and uses a peristaltic pump. Not all of the tipping buckets investigated underestimate the rain intensity in the whole measuring range. Several rain gauges have a positive relative deviation, not exceeding 22%, in the low intensity range up to 0.5 mm/min. Positive deviation can be explained by retention of water in the buckets between tips. The reason for the negative deviation is the loss of water during the tips. It leads to the underestimate of the actual intensity. The largest relative deviation in the range of underestimate exceeds 30%. In the range of extreme intensities, the larger buckets (5 cm³) show a lower relative deviation than the smaller (2 cm³) buckets. The gauge characteristic can change in favourable or unfavourable directions after several years. Therefore, the calibration of tipping buckets is recommended at least every 2 to 3 years.  相似文献   

A PCSWMM/GIS-based water balance model for the Reesor Creek watershed   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

D. Smith  J. Li  D. Banting   《Atmospheric Research》2005,77(1-4):388

This paper presents the results of a study of a watershed experiencing the pressures of land-use change resulting from urban development. The study was undertaken to facilitate an understanding of the water balance of the watershed by developing and implementing watershed procedures that are to be addressed in a watershed plan. There were three components to the research: firstly, observation of the effects of spatially distributed rainfall measurements and their effect on modelling were assessed. Secondly, the model was then calibrated by observing how differing techniques can discretize both the landscape (e.g. land-use and soil type) and incoming precipitation. Finally, a modelling methodology was developed to integrate a Geographic Information System and a hydrologic model (e.g. Storm Water Management Model) in a water balance analysis on a watershed basis. Results show that, under certain conditions, kriging spatially distributed rainfall values can help predict rainfall at ungauged (virtual) sites. Discretization of a watershed was found to affect the differences between measured and generated runoff volumes; however, this can be refined with calibration. It was seen that a strong correlation between measured and predicted rainfall values did not always guarantee a strong relationship between measured and generated runoff Recommendations include the use of a longer time series of rainfall, streamflow and predicted rainfall to observe temporal variations, and the need to assess the differences in modelled rainfall values generated by various surface interpolation methods (e.g. Inverse Distance Weighting and other kriging options) currently available in GIS packages.  相似文献   

A MASCOTTE-based characterization of MCSs over Spain, 2000–2002     

R. García-Herrera  E. Hernndez  D. Paredes  D. Barriopedro  J.F. Correoso  L. Prieto 《Atmospheric Research》2005,73(3-4):261-282

A 3-year Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) database, which extends from 2000 to 2002, has been built for the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands using the objective method MASCOTTE (MAximum Spatial COrrelation Technique). It was originally developed to track the evolution of convective systems over the Amazon region; after modifications, it is able to track MCS evolution even with an hour and a half of missed images and provides essential information of both dynamical and morphological characteristics of MCSs. MASCOTTE is tested against a visual and subjective method, and is found to offer advantages such as automation and a simple and efficient operation that make it very useful for building large MCS databases.Thirty-five MCSs were found between June and October, most of them originated along the Mediterranean coast and near the Pyrenees, showing an increasing occurrence from June to September, when the maximum is found. The regions most influenced by MCS occurrences are Balearic Islands, Valencia, Catalonia, Murcia and the Basque Country. The MCSs tend to be small, short-lived and linear, usually moving eastward or northeastward with low velocities.The MCSs-associated precipitation presents high variability, ranging from 80 to 0 mm h⁻¹ as maximum hourly records. Two different convective regions are identified based on MCS behavior in extreme precipitation events: Northern Spain (the Basque Country) with abundant and continuous precipitation regime but little MCS influence, and the Mediterranean coast, where precipitation is sporadic but much more intense.  相似文献   

Tracing infiltration and recharge using stable isotope in Taihang Mt., North China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Fadong Li  Xianfang Song  Changyuan Tang  Changming Liu  Jingjie Yu  Wanjun Zhang 《Environmental Geology》2007,53(3):687-696

The groundwater in headwater region is an important recharge source for the adjacent mountain-front plain. In order to reveal the relationship among precipitation, soil water and groundwater, from June to September in 2004, stable isotopes (deuterium and oxygen-18) in precipitation and soil waters at the depths of 10, 20, 30, 50, 70, 90, and 110 cm were analyzed at two sites covered by black locust (Robinia Pseudoacia L.) (Site A) and grass predominated by Themeda triandra (T. japonica (Willd.) Tanaka) and Bothriochloa ischaemum (B. ischaemum (L.) Keng) (Site B) in an experimental catchment at Taihang Mt., North China, respectively. The δ¹⁸O of precipitation in daily rain events shows large variations (−13.3 to −4.3‰) with a mean of 8.1‰. The δ¹⁸O and δ D of soil waters along profiles in two sites suggest that the influence of canopy cover was just up to 10 cm in top soil water. The soil water moved over the zero flux plane at 70 cm in-depth is expected to escape the evaporative effect at the end of September in both sites. The results show that the stable isotope, instead of tritium as tradition, can be used to trace the soil water behaviors based on the movement of isotopic peak along the vertical profiles in this semi-arid and semi-humid mountainous region. The infiltration depths of soil water in Taihang Mt. are 12 and 10 mm/day from June to September in 2004 in Site A and Site B, respectively. Tracing by stable isotope, recharge fluxes of soil water to local groundwater are of 3.8 and 3.2 mm/day in Site A and Site B, respectively. The results provide desirable information for assessment of local groundwater resources. An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

Determining the seasonality of groundwater recharge using water isotopes: a case study from the upper North Han River basin,Korea     

Kwang-Sik Lee  Yongje Kim 《Environmental Geology》2007,52(5):853-859

The stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen were used to determine the seasonal contributions of precipitation to groundwater recharge at a forested catchment area in the upper North Han River basin, Korea. A comparison of the stable isotopic signatures of groundwater and precipitation indicates that the precipitations which occurred during both the dry and rainy seasons are the important source of groundwater recharge in this region. A stable isotopic signature shown in the stream waters at the upstream reaches is similar to that of groundwaters, indicating that stream waters are mostly fed by groundwater discharge. Reservoir waters in the downstream flood control dams have lower deuterium excess values or d-values compared with those of the upstream waters, indicating a secondary evaporative enrichment. These results can provide a basis for the effective management of groundwater and stream water resources in the North Han River basin.  相似文献   

Potential impacts of aerosol–land–atmosphere interactions on the Indian monsoonal rainfall characteristics     

Dev Niyogi  Hsin-I Chang  Fei Chen  Lianhong Gu  Anil Kumar  Surabi Menon  Roger A. Pielke Sr. 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(2):345-359

Aerosols can affect the cloud-radiation feedback and the precipitation over the Indian monsoon region. In this paper, we propose that another pathway by which aerosols can modulate the multi-scale aspect of Indian monsoons is by altering the land–atmosphere interactions. The nonlinear feedbacks due to aerosol/diffuse radiation on coupled interactions over the Indian monsoon region are studied by: (1) reviewing recent field measurements and modeling studies, (2) analyzing the MODIS and AERONET aerosol optical depth datasets, and (3) diagnosing the results from sensitivity experiments using a mesoscale modeling system. The results of this study suggest that the large magnitude of aerosol loading and its impact on land–atmosphere interactions can significantly influence the mesoscale monsoonal characteristics in the Indo-Ganges Basin.  相似文献   

降水和温度MOS预报方法探讨     

吴爱敏 《干旱气象》2002,20(3):1-3

文中分析了庆阳地区春季降水气候特征和环流形势 ,用 1995～ 1998年 3～ 5月T10 6资料建立了该区 8县 (市 )春季降水、温度MOS预报方程 ,进行了回代检验和试报 ,并提出了模式更换后的处理方法  相似文献   

雷州半岛近40年来气温和降水的变化     

陈理森 《广东气象》2001,(2):29-30

利用1961～2000年雷州半岛5个气象站的月平均降水量、平均最高、最低气温等资料，对雷州半岛40年和近10年的变化作了较为全面的分析。  相似文献   

不同天气系统下我国云雨水化学特征的研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

雷恒池  吴玉霞  肖辉  沈志来 《高原气象》2001,20(2):127-131

根据1985－1993年我国10个省市飞机观测的云水化学资料，分析了不同天气系统对我国云、雨水化学特征的影响。平均而言，我国北方地区云水不酸，南方地区云水酸。降水天气系统对云化学组分有一定的影响。北方地区受蒙古低涡影响时，云水中Ca^2 明显增多，表现了沙尘污染的特征；南方地区静止锋降水时，云水酸，离子浓度也高。  相似文献