This study focuses on model predictive skill with respect to stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events by comparing the hindcast results of BCC_CSM1.1(m) with those of the ECMWF's model under the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project of the World Weather Research Program and World Climate Research Program. When the hindcasts are initiated less than two weeks before SSW onset, BCC_CSM and ECMWF show comparable predictive skill in terms of the temporal evolution of the stratospheric circumpolar westerlies and polar temperature up to 30 days after SSW onset. However, with earlier hindcast initialization, the predictive skill of BCC_CSM gradually decreases, and the reproduced maximum circulation anomalies in the hindcasts initiated four weeks before SSW onset replicate only 10% of the circulation anomaly intensities in observations. The earliest successful prediction of the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex accompanying SSW onset for BCC_CSM(ECMWF) is the hindcast initiated two(three) weeks earlier. The predictive skills of both models during SSW winters are always higher than that during non-SSW winters, in relation to the successfully captured tropospheric precursors and the associated upward propagation of planetary waves by the model initializations. To narrow the gap in SSW predictive skill between BCC_CSM and ECMWF, ensemble forecasts and error corrections are performed with BCC_CSM. The SSW predictive skill in the ensemble hindcasts and the error corrections are improved compared with the previous control forecasts. 相似文献
This study was conducted on recent desert samples—including (1) soils, (2) plants, (3) the shell, and (4) organic matter from modern specimens of the land snail Eremina desertorum—which were collected at several altitudes (316–360 m above sea level) from a site in the New Cairo Petrified Forest. The soils and shellE. desertorum were analyzed for carbonate composition and isotopic composition (δ18O, δ13C). The plants and organic matterE. desertorum were analyzed for organic carbon content and δ13C. The soil carbonate, consisting of calcite plus minor dolomite, has δ18O values from −3.19 to −1.78‰ and δ13C values −1.79 to −0.27‰; covariance between the two values accords with arid climatic conditions. The local plants include C3 and C4 types, with the latter being dominant. Each type has distinctive bulk organic carbon δ13C values: −26.51 to −25.36‰ for C3-type, and −13.74 to −12.43‰ for C4-type plants.The carbonate of the shellE. desertorum is composed of aragonite plus minor calcite, with relatively homogenous isotopic compositions (δ18Omean = −0.28 ± 0.22‰; δ13Cmean = −4.46 ± 0.58‰). Most of the δ18O values (based on a model for oxygen isotope fractionation in an aragonite-water system) are consistent with evaporated water signatures. The organic matterE. desertorum varies only slightly in bulk organic carbon δ13C values (−21.78 ± 1.20‰) and these values suggest that the snail consumed more of C3-type than C4-type plants. The overall offset in δ13C values (−17.32‰) observed between shellE. desertorum carbonate and organic matterE. desertorum exceeds the value expected for vegetation input, and implies that 30% of carbon in the shellE. desertorum carbonate comes from the consumption of limestone material. 相似文献
Detecting land-use change has become of concern to environmentalists, conservationists and land use planners due to its impact on natural ecosystems. We studied land use/land cover (LULC) changes in part of the northwestern desert of Egypt and used the Markov-CA integrated approach to predict future changes. We mapped the LULC distribution of the desert landscape for 1988, 1999, and 2011. Landsat Thematic Mapper 5 data and ancillary data were classified using the random forests approach. The technique produced LULC maps with an overall accuracy of more than 90%. Analysis of LULC classes from the three dates revealed that the study area was subjected to three different stages of modification, each dominated by different land uses. The use of a spatially explicit land use change modeling approach, such as Markov-CA approach, provides ways for projecting different future scenarios. Markov-CA was used to predict land use change in 2011 and project changes in 2023 by extrapolating current trends. The technique was successful in predicting LULC distribution in 2011 and the results were comparable to the actual LULC for 2011. The projected LULC for 2023 revealed more urbanization of the landscape with potential expansion in the croplands westward and northward, an increase in quarries, and growth in residential centers. The outcomes can help management activities directed toward protection of wildlife in the area. The study can also be used as a guide to other studies aiming at projecting changes in arid areas experiencing similar land use changes. 相似文献
Eclogites within exhumed continental collision zones indicate regional burial to depths of at least 60 km, and often more than 100 km in the coesite‐stable, ultra‐high pressure (UHP) eclogite facies. Garnet, omphacitic pyroxene, high‐Si mica, kyanite ± coesite should grow at the expense of low‐P minerals in most felsic compositions, if equilibrium obtained at these conditions. The quartzofeldspathic rocks that comprise the bulk of eclogite facies terranes, however, contain mainly amphibolite facies, plagioclase‐bearing assemblages. To what extent these lower‐P minerals persisted metastably during (U)HP metamorphism, or whether they grew afterwards, reflects closely upon crustal parameters such as density, strength and seismic character. The Nordfjord area in western Norway offers a detailed view into a large crustal section that was subducted into the eclogite facies. The degree of transformation in typical pelite, paragneiss, granitic and granodioritic gneiss was assessed by modelling the equilibrium assemblage, comparing it with existing parageneses in these rocks and using U/Th–Pb zircon geochronology from laser ablation ICPMS to establish the history of mineral growth. U–Pb dates define a period of zircon recrystallization and new growth accompanying burial and metamorphism lasting from 430 to 400 Ma. Eclogite facies mafic rock (~2 vol.% of crust) is the most transformed composition and records the ambient peak conditions. Rare garnet‐bearing pelitic rocks (<10 vol.% of crust) preserve a mostly prograde mineral evolution to near‐peak conditions; REE concentrations in zircon indicate that garnet was present after 425 Ma and feldspar broke down after 410 Ma. Felsic gneiss – by far the most abundant rock type – is dominated by quartz + biotite + feldspar, but minor zoisite/epidote, phengitic white mica, garnet and rutile point to a prograde HP overprint. Relict textures indicate that much of the microstructural framework of plagioclase, K‐feldspar, and perhaps biotite, persisted through at least 25 Ma of burial, and ultimately UHP metamorphism. The signature reaction of the eclogite facies in felsic rocks – jadeite/omphacite growth from plagioclase – cannot be deduced from the presence of pyroxene or its breakdown products. We conclude that prograde dehydration in orthogneiss leads to fluid absent conditions, impeding equilibration beyond ~high‐P amphibolite facies. 相似文献
A large amount of deep oil has been discovered in the Tazhong Uplift, Tarim Basin whereas the oil source is still controversial. An integrated geochemical approach was utilized to unravel the characteristics, origin and alteration of the deep oils. This study showed that the Lower Cambrian oil from well ZS1C (1x) was featured by small or trace amounts of biomarkers, unusually high concentration of dibenzothiophenes (DBTs), high δ34S of DBTs and high δ13C value of n-alkanes. These suggest a close genetic relationship with the Cambrian source rocks and TSR alteration. On the contrary, the Middle Cambrian oils from well ZS1 (2a) were characterized by low δ13C of n-alkanes and relatively high δ34S of individual sulfur compounds and a general “V” shape of steranes, indicating a good genetic affinity with the Middle–Upper Ordovician source rocks. The middle Cambrian salt rock separating the oils was suggested to be one of the factors responsible for the differentiation. It was suggested that most of the deep oils in the Tazhong Uplift were mixed source based on biomarkers and carbon isotope, which contain TSR altered oil in varied degree. The percentage of the oils contributed by the Cambrian–Lower Ordovician was in the range of 19–100% (average 57%) controlled by several geological and geochemical events. Significant variations in the δ34S values for individual compounds in the oils were observed suggesting a combination of different extent of TSR and thermal maturation alterations. The unusually high DBTs concentrations in the Tazhong-4 oilfield suggested as a result of mixing with the ZS1C oil (1x) and Lower Ordovician oils based on δ34S values of DBT. This study will enhance our understanding of both deep and shallow oil sources in the Tazhong Uplift and clarify the formation mechanisms of the unusually high DBTs oils in the region. 相似文献
This research addresses recent environmental governance in Bolivia through its relations to indigeneity and respatializations. It introduces and develops the concept of “speaking like an indigenous state” to examine the Bolivian state’s recent use of a pair of indigenous linguistic concepts, Living Well and Earth Mother, representing the identities of citizens and their rights to resources and livelihoods. State relations to indigenous social movements highlight the use of Living Well and Earth Mother concepts through accommodation, resistance, and protaganism. Six active issues of environmental governance are examined: (1) climate change and justice movement; (2) agrarian reform, agrobiodiversity, and food justice; (3) water resources; (4) indigenous territories; (5) Protected Areas; and (6) extractive industries (mining, hydrocarbons). The usages of Living Well and Earth Mother show versatility as they have been mobilized in the respatializing of the politics and social-power dynamics of environmental issues at scales of the state, global and international institutions, and community and local levels. Analysis also reveals deployment of Living Well and Earth Mother that is discursively influential and yet conceptually reduced and unevenly applied, thus suggesting a characteristic of verisimilitude. My analysis determines that respatialization at various levels, including territorial transitions of sub-national regional spaces, are associated with the heightened articulation of environmental governance through indigeneity and “speaking like an indigenous state” amid resource nationalism. Linkages and logics operating within this conjuncture differ from the prevailing interpretation of the Bolivian state’s use of Living Well and Earth Mother as solely an unwitting contradiction or instrumentalist camouflage. 相似文献
Determining the relative influence of eustasy versus local sedimentary processes on strata formation is a fundamental challenge in the study of continental margin stratigraphy. In this paper, the relative contribution of these factors on continental margin evolution during the Middle to Late Pleistocene is evaluated using samples from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 317. Core‐logging, biostratigraphy and quantitative X‐ray diffraction mineralogy are used to delineate continental shelf sedimentary systems. Major lithological unconformities bound stratigraphic sequences that contain recurring compositional patterns and that resemble other examples of Middle to Upper Pleistocene sequences. However, a preliminary chronology suggests that sequence boundary formation cannot be linked ‘one to one’ with eustatic cycles and therefore these sequences can contain multiple ca 100 ka eustatic cycles. Smaller amplitude, higher frequency transitions in sediment composition are interpreted as stratigraphic sequences driven by more rapid perturbations in the interplay of accommodation and sediment supply; their stratigraphy is variable in time and across the shelf, suggesting a strong influence of local sedimentary forcing in their formation. Changes in sediment composition after the Middle Pleistocene Transition indicate that sediment transfer from onshore sources in the glaciated Southern Alps to the middle‐shelf occurred over a single 100 ka glacio‐eustatic cycle, with an additional 100 ka lag before the mineralogical signal was preserved on the outer‐shelf. This phenomenon is coincident with rapid shelf progradation in this basin, suggesting a causal relation between across‐shelf sediment transport and margin progradation. This is one of very few studies that provide insights at the core scale into the processes driving continental margin evolution during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. This work shows that compositional changes in mud‐dominated successions can lead to a sequence stratigraphic interpretation and the identification of high‐frequency sequences, which may not be possible using a conventional stratigraphic approach. 相似文献
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