地震应急数据库中人口数据预测——以乌鲁木齐市为例     

谢江丽  李帅  姚远 《中国地震》2019,35(2):389-398

利用统计年鉴、人口普查数据、遥感影像等资料,将乌鲁木齐市按区县级行政区域为单位提取近10年的人口数据,确定各区县历年来人口分布变化情况。挖掘研究区内人口-时间变量关系,建立人口预测模型——GM（1,1）模型,预测未来2年乌鲁木齐各区县人口数据,以弥补数据库数据因滞后2年无法及时更新所导致的数据空缺。  相似文献   

21世纪新疆区域气候暖湿化趋势预估分析     

董思言 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2024,18(5)

新疆未来暖湿化的预估分析可为区域气候变化减缓和适应提供重要的科学基础。国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）全球气候模式在三种共享社会经济路径（SSPs）下的结果显示,新疆地区未来2021~2100年总体呈现气温升高、降水增加的“暖湿化”现象,但这种变化的具体数值和空间分布存在一定差异。其中SSP2-4.5情景下,相对于1995~2014年,预估2021~2040年新疆地区年平均气温将升高1.2℃左右,年平均降水将增加6.8%。对极端事件的预估结果表明,新疆地区未来暖事件将增加,冷事件将减少;极端强降水事件将增多,且高排放情景下的增加更为显著。新疆地区的未来预估分析,将有助于对新疆地区灾害风险时空变化格局的认识,对未来农业方面等风险防范也有重要的指示作用。  相似文献   

THE GEOGRAPHY OF MASTODON EXTINCTION     

《The Professional geographer》2013,65(4):425-429

Geographic Software Reviewed in this article:

LIFE TABLES and the LESLIE MATRIX. CONDUIT

MENTMAP2. Lawrence W. Carstensen Jr.

PC-MATLAB, Version 1.0. The Math Works, Inc.

QUICKMAP, version 1.0. Sammamish Data Systems, Inc.

SYSTAT: THE SYSTEM FOR STATISTICS, Version 2.1, Systat Inc.

USA DISPLAY. Instant Tecall  相似文献   

Statistical Projections of Ocean Climate Indices off Newfoundland and Labrador     

Guoqi Han  Eugene Colbourne  Pierre Pepin  Yinda Xie 《大气与海洋》2015,53(5):556-570

ABSTRACT

Present global climate models (GCMs) are unable to provide reliable projections of physical oceanographic properties on the continental shelf off Newfoundland and Labrador. Here we first establish linear statistical relationships between oceanographic properties and coastal air temperature based on historical observations. We then use these relationships to project future states of oceanographic conditions under different emission scenarios, based on projected coastal air temperatures from global (Canadian Earth System Model, version 2 (CanESM2), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model, version 2M (GFDL-ESM2M)) and regional (Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM)) climate models. Estimates based on CanESM2 agree reasonably well with observed trends, but the trends based on two other models result in substantial underestimates. Projected trends are closer to observations under a high emission scenario than under median-level emission scenarios. Over the next 50 years, the increases in projected sea surface temperature off eastern Newfoundland (Station 27) range from 0.4° to 2.2°C. The increases in bottom ocean temperature over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves range from 0.4° to 2.1°C. The area of the cold intermediate layer (<0°C) on the Flemish Cap (47°N) section is projected to decrease by 9–35% of the 1981–2010 average. The decline in sea-ice extent off Newfoundland and Labrador ranges from 20 to 77% of the average (0.4–1.5?×?10⁵?km²), and the reduction in the number of icebergs at 48°N off Newfoundland ranges from 30% to nearly 100% of the norm at this latitude. Despite differences among the models and scenarios, statistical projections indicate that conditions in this region will reach or exceed their maxima (sea surface temperature, bottom ocean temperature) and reach or fall below their minima (sea-ice extent, number of icebergs) that were observed during the course of monitoring activities over the past 30–60 years, possibly as early as 2040. We note, however, that the statistical relationships based on historical data may not hold in the future because of the changing influence of input from Arctic waters and because of large uncertainties in projected air temperatures from GCMs.  相似文献   

REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE     

《The Professional geographer》1987,39(4):481-486

Reviews of geographic software in this article: GEOGRAPHY MACCHORO OPS83 Population Analysis on Microcomputers with PC or MS DOS STATPAC GOLD THUNDERSCAN  相似文献   

Past and Future Changes in the Climate of Hong Kong          下载免费PDF全文

GINN Wing-lui  LEE Tsz-cheung  CHAN Kin-yu 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(2):163-175

Over the years, the Hong Kong Observatory has carried out scientific studies to evaluate the observed climate trends and project the future climate in Hong Kong. Analysis of the meteorological observations at the observatory's headquarters in Tsim Sha Tsui since 1885 reveals that the temperature rise in Hong Kong during the past 124 years is in accord with the global rising trend. The accelerated rising trend in the mean temperature in last few decades may be attributed to the anthropogenic influences, especially urbanization. A similar increasing trend is also observed for rainfall. Other observations such as increasing cloud amount and decreasing total global solar radiation are all consistent with the global trend. Studies of past occurrences of extreme temperature and rainfall have also been carried out. The results indicate that cold episodes have become rarer while very hot days and heavy rain events are becoming more frequent. The observatory also makes use of the data from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and employs statistical downscaling techniques to carry out projections of temperature and precipitation in the 21st century. It is found that the rise in temperature in Hong Kong will be slightly higher than the global mean in the 21st century. The annual rainfall in Hong Kong is also expected to rise by the end of the 21st century, so is its year-to-year variability.  相似文献   

SOFTWARE REVIEWS     

《The Professional geographer》1991,43(1):108-114

Electromap World Atlas , Version 1.1. Interactive Population Statistical System , Version 1.0. Jerry W. Wicks and Jose Luiz Pereira de Almeida MATHCAD , Version 2.5. Memory Mate. Micro DEM +, Version 5.21. Peter Guth NCSS – Number Cruncher Statistical System , Version 5.02. Dr. Jerry L. Hintze  相似文献   

METPET: Metamorphic petrology microcomputer programs     

D. G. A. BALL  P.-Y. F. ROBIN 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》1990,8(3):251-256

METPET is a package of three interactive microcomputer (IBM PC or compatible) programs. FILEMAN is a utility program to create, edit and print 'composition files', i.e. files containing the records of chemical compositions of minerals or rocks, expressed in terms of primary chemical components. PROJECT recalculates selected compositions in terms of new ( secondary ) components. It then projects these compositions onto a subspace defined by two, three or more of the secondary components, first giving a plot on the screen and then, if requested by the user, on a selected graphic device. REACT calculates a possible set of independent reactions between a set of phases, whether pure compounds or solutions. Any linear combination of the independent reactions can be calculated on request.  相似文献   

赤平投影的程序化方法与实现   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

王海斌  李永盛 《岩土工程技术》2004,18(2):68-71

对于存在构造面岩石边坡的稳定分析 ,赤平投影方法是一种行之有效的方法 ,但是赤平投影理论较为抽象 ,图解方法较为繁琐 ,手工绘制误差较大 ,因此编制了赤平投影程序 ,能够很方便、准确地进行边坡稳定性判断。  相似文献   

RESOLUTION OF STRONGLY OVERLAPPING TWO-WAY MULTICOMPONENT DATA BY MEANS OF HEURISTIC EVOLVING LATENT PROJECTIONS   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

OLAV M.KVALHEIM  ALI RAHMANI  RICHARD G.BRERETON 《地理学报(英文版)》1993,(1)

High-performance liquid chromatography with diode array detection(HPLC-DAD)is used tocharacterize mixtures from chlorophyll α degradation experiments.Overlapping chromatographic peaksare resolved by means of the heuristic evolving latent projections(HELP)method.The HELP methodis a self-modelling curve resolution method.No assumptions are made about spectral and/orchromatographic peak shape.In the first step the method establishes the real noise level in the data byuse of the so-called zero-component regions.This information is used to reveal selective chromatographicinformation and the number of chemical species at every retention time in unresolved chromatographicpeaks.Utilising the selective chromatographic regions in combination with the zero-concentrationwindows,unique resolution into concentration profiles and spectra of the pure chemical species isaccomplished.HPLC-DAD data from six chlorophyll a degradation experiments were analysed.Consistent results were obtained even with very similar spectra for six or seven overlapping chemicalcomponents.  相似文献