Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?     

《Global Environmental Change》2020

Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and not considering future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. This is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. On a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.  相似文献   

Calculating on a round planet     

Nicholas R. Chrisman 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(4):637-657

Despite incontrovertible scientific evidence to support a round Earth, GIS software implementation typically models the Earth with flat map projections. This choice has consequences that vary from mild to severe. This paper explores solutions that range from moderate measures to correct for map projection errors to radical revisions of standard practice that place all calculations on the ellipsoid. On examination, the best practice requires a distinct projection choice for each geometric operation. Multiple reasons, from the technical to ethical, justify revised practices and increased vigilance for the errors induced by inappropriate projections.  相似文献   

Continuity markers as an aid for children in finding the peripheral continuity of world maps     

Pontus Hennerdal 《制图学和地理信息科学》2013,40(1):76-85

ABSTRACT

Many map readers, including both children and adults, find it difficult to determine where they would be located along the edge of a world map after crossing that edge. Different types of markers have long been drawn close to the map’s edge – for example, in an atlas – to help map readers identify the map upon which they will find themselves if that edge is passed. In this study, a method similar to that used to show the continuity between maps in an atlas has been tested to determine whether continuity markers can also be used to help map readers find a world map’s actual peripheral continuity. The study involved children between the ages of 10 and 13 years and showed that continuity markers do help children determine the map’s actual peripheral continuity, in combination with a lesson that describes how to find the actual peripheral continuity of a world map. This article, therefore, concludes that continuity markers for world maps can be a useful part of map design that clarifies how the edges of a world map fit together for children who have learned to use this tool.  相似文献   

The Role Of The Geographer On Multidisciplinary Resource Surveys     

《The Professional geographer》2013,65(3):362-366

Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world ….

“The Second Coming,” W. B. Yeats 1921  相似文献   

Graphical design of world map projections     

Bernhard Jenny  Tom Patterson  Lorenz Hurni 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(11):1687-1702

The design of new map projections has up until now required mathematical and cartographic expertise that has limited this activity to a small group of specialists. This article introduces the background mathematics for a software-based method that enables cartographers to easily design new small-scale world map projections. The software is usable even by those without mathematical expertise. A new projection is designed interactively in an iterative process that allows the designer to graphically and numerically assess the graticule, the representation of the continents, and the distortion properties of the new projection. The method has been implemented in Flex Projector, a free and open-source application enabling users to quickly create new map projections and modify existing projections. We also introduce new tools that help evaluate the distortion properties of projections, namely a configurable acceptance index to assess areal and angular distortion, a derived acceptance visualization, and interactive profiles through the distortion space of a projection. To illustrate the proposed method, a new projection, the Cropped Ginzburg VIII projection, is presented.  相似文献   

The Chinese Carbon-Neutral Goal: Challenges and Prospects     

Ning ZENG  Kejun JIANG  Pengfei HAN  Zeke HAUSFATHER  Junji CAO  Daniel KIRK-DAVIDOFF  Shaukat ALI  Sheng ZHOU 《大气科学进展》2022,39(8):1229-1238

On 22 September 2020, within the backdrop of the COVID-19 global pandemic, China announced its climate goal for peak carbon emissions before 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality before 2060. This carbon-neutral goal is generally considered to cover all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The planning effort is now in full swing in China, but the pathway to decarbonization is unclear. The needed transition towards non-fossil fuel energy and its impact on China and the world may be more profound than its reform and development over the past 40 years, but the challenges are enormous. Analysis of four representative scenarios shows significant differences in achieving the carbon-neutral goal, particularly the contribution of non-fossil fuel energy sources. The high target values for nuclear, wind, and bioenergy have approached their corresponding resource limitations, with solar energy being the exception, suggesting solar’s critical role. We also found that the near-term policies that allow for a gradual transition, followed by more drastic changes after 2030, can eventually reach the carbon-neutral goal and lead to less of a reduction in cumulative emissions, thus inconsistent with the IPCC 1.5°C scenario. The challenges and prospects are discussed in the historical context of China’s socio-economic reform, globalization, international collaboration, and development.  相似文献   

Simple and highly accurate formulas for the computation of Transverse Mercator coordinates from longitude and isometric latitude   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Mercedes Bermejo-Solera  Jesús Otero 《Journal of Geodesy》2009,83(1):1-12

A conformal approximation to the Transverse Mercator (TM) map projection, global in longitude λ and isometric latitude q, is constructed. New formulas for the point scale factor and grid convergence are also shown. Assuming that the true values of the TM coordinates are given by conveniently truncated Gauss–Krüger series expansions, we use the maximum norm of the absolute error to measure globally the accuracy of the approximation. For a Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) zone the accuracy equals 0.21  mm, whereas for the region of the ellipsoid bounded by the meridians  ±20° the accuracy is equal to 0.3  mm. Our approach is based on a four-term perturbation series approximation to the radius r(q) of the parallel q, with a maximum absolute deviation of 0.43  mm. The small parameter of the power series expansion is the square of the eccentricity of the ellipsoid. This closed approximation to r(q) is obtained by solving a regularly perturbed Cauchy problem with the Poincaré method of the small parameter. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE     

《The Professional geographer》1987,39(3):357-362

Reviews of geographic software in this article: ADD A STAT, Version 2.0 MULTIFIT, Version 2.0 CITY AND COUNTY DATA BOOK, 1983 Files on Diskettes. FUTPOP. CPSS/PC, Version 2. SOURCE ZIP and SOURCE TRACT STATPLAN 111 ySTAT.  相似文献   

Population futures in the Australian desert, 2001–16     

John Taylor 《The Australian geographer》2003,34(3):355-370

Population estimates are rarely constructed for ecological regions. The recent establishment of a Desert Knowledge Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) generates a need for such estimates. This paper obliges by presenting Indigenous and total population projections for the Australian desert to 2016. The desert is found to be a region of relatively low population growth in national terms, contrary to the experience of many other parts of non-metropolitan Australia where population decline is prevalent. Also noted is the markedly different growth observed for the Indigenous and non-Indigenous components of the desert population, with the former projected to increase much more rapidly over time. It is likely that virtually all of the increase in the desert population over the next 15 years will arise from natural increase among Indigenous peoples. As a consequence, the Indigenous share of the regional population is projected to rise from 20 per cent in 2001 to 24 per cent by 2016, with attendant consequences for social and economic policy.  相似文献   

由锥形束投影监控物体体密度变化的快速方法     

史安生  吕东辉  张海燕  严壮志 《CT理论与应用研究》2008,17(3):7-12

体密度是物体特征信息的一个重要组成部分,该信息的动态监控可用来快速判断物体体密度是否发生变化。目前最常用的体密度监控方法是基于图像重建的近似计算,该方法首先利用锥形束投影数据实现体积重建,然后对物体的密度函数积分求得物体的体密度。这种方法算法复杂度较高,很难实现对体密度的实时动态监控。本文提出一种直接基于锥形束投影的体密度快速监控方法,不需要图像重建。仿真实验结果表明,这种方法在动态监控物体体密度变化时,具有较高的实时性和精确性,可以满足实际的动态监控需求,因而在工业检测等领域具有一定的应用价值。  相似文献