暴雨山洪灾害预警方法研究进展     

任智慧  桑燕芳  杨默远  王月玲  尚莉 《地理科学进展》2023,42(1):185-196

暴雨山洪灾害预警是中小流域山洪灾害防控体系的薄弱环节,也是决定山洪灾害防控成败的关键。论文围绕山洪灾害预警的核心问题,从中国山洪灾害区域差异特征、山洪灾害预警技术方法、山洪灾害概率预警现状3个方面进行了综述。中国山洪灾害分布存在明显的时空差异,因此有必要根据山洪灾害的区域差异发展有针对性的预警方法。以临界雨量为指标的雨量预警是目前中国中小流域暴雨山洪灾害预警的主要技术手段,但常规方法仅给出一个(组)确定的临界雨量阈值,导致预警结果存在突出的不确定性问题。概率预警可以定量评估诸多不确定性,给出山洪灾害概率预警结果,因此具备很好的理论优势与潜在应用价值。论文展望了山洪灾害概率预警未来的研究重点与方向：(1)充分挖掘暴雨洪水样本信息,开展山洪灾害概率预警基础方法与技术集成研究;(2)加强非平稳性条件下的临界雨量阈值估算与山洪灾害概率预警研究;(3)综合考虑预警阈值发生概率及其致灾概率,优化“多级预警、多级响应”技术方法,推进山洪灾害综合预警业务系统建设与应用。  相似文献   

The Role of the Aerosol Indirect Effect in the Northern Indian Ocean Warming Simulated by CMIP5 Models          下载免费PDF全文

HU Ning  LI Li-Juan  WANG Bin 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):411-416

The northern Indian Ocean （NIO） experienced a decadal-scale persistent warming from 1950 to 2000, which has influenced both regional and global climate. Because the NIO is a region susceptible to aerosols emis- sion changes, and there are still large uncertainties in the representation of the aerosol indirect effect （ALE） in CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5） models, it is necessary to investigate the role of the AIE in the NIO warming simulated by these models. In this study, the authors select seven CMIP5 models with both the aerosol direct and indirect effects to investigate their performance in simulating the basin-wide decadal-scale NIO warming. The results show that the decreasing trend of the downwelling shortwave flux （FSDS） at the surface has the major damping effect on the SST increasing trend, which counteracts the warming effect of greenhouse gases （GHGs）. The FSDS decreasing trend is mostly contrib- uted by the decreasing trend of cloudy-sky surface downwelling shortwave flux （FSDSCL）, a metric used to measure the strength of the AIE, and partly by the clear-sky surface downwelling shortwave flux （FSDSC）. Models with a relatively weaker AIE can simulate well the SST increasing trend, as compared to observation. In contrast, models with a relatively stronger AIE produce a much smaller magnitude of the increasing trend, indicat- ing that the strength of the AIE in these models may be overestimated in the NIO.  相似文献   

The Combined Effect of Initial Error and Model Error on ENSO Prediction Uncertainty Generated by the Zebiak-Cane Model          下载免费PDF全文

ZHAO Peng  DUAN Wan-Suo 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):447-452

Initial errors and model errors are the source of prediction errors. In this study, the authors compute the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP）-type initial errors and nonlinear forcing singular vector （NFSV）- type tendency errors of the Zebiak-Cane model with respect to El Nifio events and analyze their combined effect on the prediction errors for E1 Nino events. The CNOP- type initial error （NFSV-type tendency error） represents the initial errors （model errors） that have the largest effect on prediction uncertainties for E1 Nifio events under the perfect model （perfect initial conditions） scenario. How- ever, when the CNOP-type initial errors and the NFSV- type tendency errors are simultaneously considered in the model, the prediction errors caused by them are not am- plified as the authors expected. Specifically, the predic- tion errors caused by the combined mode of CNOP-type initial errors and NFSV-type tendency errors are a little larger than those caused by the NFSV-type tendency er- rors. This fact emphasizes a need to investigate the opti- mal combined mode of initial errors and tendency errors that cause the largest prediction error for E1 Nifio events.  相似文献   

GNSS参考站网络的电离层完备性监测研究     

周东卫 《测绘科学》2014,(2)

本文基于四川GPS综合服务网络(SIGN)的计算结果表明:IRIM指标可用于衡量参考站网络内的电离层完备性监测的总体情况,IRIU指标提供了完备性监测信息在参考站网络中更为详细的空间分布情况,上述指标应用于参考站网络数据处理中心进行实时电离层完备性监测,能有效保证参考站网络内流动端用户定位的时间空间可用性和可靠性。  相似文献   

Investigation of Uncertainties of Establishment Schemes in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models简     

SONG Xiang  ZENG Xiaodong 《大气科学进展》2014,31(1):85-94

In Dynamic Global Vegetation Models （DGVMs）, the establishment of woody vegetation refers to flowering, fertiliza- tion, seed production, germination, and the growth of tree seedlings. It determines not only the population densities but also other important ecosystem structural variables. In current DGVMs, establishments of woody plant functional types （PFTs） are assumed to be either the same in the same grid cell, or largely stochastic. We investigated the uncertainties in the competition of establishment among coexisting woody PFTs from three aspects： the dependence of PFT establishments on vegetation states; background establishment; and relative establishment potentials of different PFTs. Sensitivity experi- ments showed that the dependence of establishment rate on the fractional coverage of a PFT favored the dominant PFT by increasing its share in establishment. While a small background establishment rate had little impact on equilibrium states of the ecosystem, it did change the timescale required for the establishment of alien species in pre-existing forest due to their disadvantage in seed competition during the early stage of invasion. Meanwhile, establishment purely fiom background （the scheme commonly used in current DGVMs） led to inconsistent behavior in response to the change in PFT specification （e.g., number of PFTs and their specification）. Furthermore, the results also indicated that trade-off between irtdividual growth and reproduction/colonization has significant influences on the competition of establishment. Hence, further development of es- tablishment parameterization in DGVMs is essential in reducing the uncertainties in simulations of both ecosystem structures and successions.  相似文献   

水文学确定性和不确定性方法的耦合初探          下载免费PDF全文

王文圣  丁晶 《水文》2014,34(2):3-7

水文现象具有确定性和不确定性,常用确定性方法和不确定性方法分析。这两种方法在水文学中广泛应用并愈来愈密切耦合。对这种耦合的背景、实质和途径等进行了初步分析。给出了水文学确定性方法和不确定性方法耦合的内涵;分析了耦合的客观背景,指出确定性和不确定性辩证的统一、不确定性和确定性在一定条件下相互转化是耦合的哲学基础;总结了耦合的三大主要途径:(1)简单混合。对某一个水文问题的解决分成两个部份,一个部份用确定性方法,另一个部份用不确定性法;(2)一般嵌入。指在某种分析法的总体框架下,局部或某些部分嵌入另一种分析法以达到提高分析可靠性之目的;(3)复杂的渗入。指两种方法相互渗透,充分发挥各自特色促使耦合效应独突。  相似文献   

东胜煤田北部地段3D煤层模型的动态构建及不确定性评估          下载免费PDF全文

李章林  吴冲龙  张夏林  翁正平  刘刚  邵玉祥 《地球科学》2014,39(10):1398-1406

以内蒙古东胜煤田北部艾来五库沟-台吉召地段勘查区为例,针对三维地质建模方法在多源多类地质数据应用、动态建模及建模结果不确定性评估等方面存在的不足进行研究,并实现了煤层三维建模.煤层三维建模要领是:先按照数据的内在逻辑关系和几何结构两个层次进行数据融合处理,将钻孔、剖面及断层等数据转化为形式简单、结构一致的离散化样品数据;再以这些数据和各类边界线为基础,通过距离幂次反比(inverse distance weighting,IDW)法插值得到煤层顶底板高程,并结合这些属性值和TIN(triangulated irregular network)剖分技术动态生成煤层结构模型;然后利用一个与煤层顶底板高程估值结果相对应的算子——插值方差,完成对煤层模型的局部不确定性评估.详细讨论了煤层三维建模的整体流程并基于三维地学信息系统平台QuantyView加以实现.实际应用结果表明,所提方法具有显著的实际应用价值.   相似文献   

基于景观格局—过程的城市自然灾害生态风险研究:回顾与展望   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

彭建  刘焱序  潘雅婧  赵志强  宋治清  王仰麟 《地球科学进展》2014,(10)

随着当前中国城市化进程的不断加速,自然灾害对城市生态安全的潜在威胁日趋受到关注。城市景观结构和空间形态影响着城市生态环境问题的产生和解决途径,基于景观格局—过程的城市/区域自然灾害生态风险评价成为城市生态风险及可持续研究的重要方向。在明晰城市自然灾害生态风险基本概念内涵及单一、综合自然灾害作用下城市生态风险评价研究进展的基础上,系统梳理了城市地域自然灾害、生态风险与景观格局—过程之间的逻辑关联,综合探讨了城市景观格局—过程与自然灾害交互作用及其在城市生态风险评价、自然灾害生态风险防范等重点领域的研究进展,并提出城市景观格局—过程与自然灾害生态风险的相互影响机理探索、景观时空尺度分异与城市自然灾害生态风险的不确定性分析、基于景观格局—过程的城市自然灾害生态风险综合评估模型与情景模拟等三大重大研究趋向,以期实现基于景观优化的城市自然灾害和生态风险防范的研究目标。  相似文献   

基于遥感影像的黄河内蒙古段冰-水分类研究          下载免费PDF全文

翟涌光  张鑫  冀鸿兰  牟献友  张宝森 《干旱区地理》2022,45(3):763-773

及时获取凌汛期河冰和水体的空间分布特征,对于预测冰凌灾害、提高防凌信息化管理水平有重要意义。遥感技术是当前获取河冰和水体空间分布的最主要手段之一。但是,黄河水体有大量悬浮泥沙,这给基于遥感技术的高精度冰-水分类带来了挑战。以黄河内蒙古段为例,基于Landsat 8 OLI遥感影像数据,在利用归一化积雪指数（NDSI）及河道矢量数据排除无关地物的基础上,对比了近红外波段反射率值、归一化差异水体指数（NDWI）、归一化积雪指数（NDSI）、改进的归一化积雪指数（MNDSI）以及归一化差异未封冻水体指数（NDUWI）在黄河内蒙古段典型河道河冰、水体分类中的表现,计算各指标总体分类精度及Kappa系数并进行阈值稳定性分析。结果表明：在利用NDSI和高清历史影像排除河道外无关地物后,NDUWI在各子段影像中的总体分类精度和Kappa系数均达到90.00%及0.90以上,其河冰、水体最优区分阈值大体分布于阈值中值附近。研究结果可为凌汛期黄河冰凌监测方法的选取以及冰上爆破位置的拟定提供依据。  相似文献   

A Cascade Approach for Global Trajectory Tracking Control of Underactuated AUVs     

毕凤阳  魏英杰  张嘉钟  曹伟 《中国海洋工程》2010,24(2):369-380

A global trajectory tracking controller is presented for underactuated AUVs with only surge force and yaw moment in the horizontal plane. A transformation is introduced to represent the tracking error system into a cascade form. The global and uniform asymptotic stabilization problem of the resulting cascade system is reduced to the stabilization problem of two subsystems by use of the cascade approach. For the stabilization of the subsystem involving the yaw moment, a control law is proposed based on the feedback linearization method. Another subsystem is stabilized by designing a fuzzy sliding mode controller which can offer a systematical means of constructing a set of shrinking-span and dilating-span membership functions. In order to demonstrate the practicability of the proposed controller, control constraints, parameter uncertainties, and external disturbances are considered according to practical situation of AUVs. Simulation results show very good tracking performance and robustness of the proposed control schemes.  相似文献