辽东湾海蜇增殖放流模式的建立和应用     

尹丽萍  单秀娟  赵昌  金显仕  王关锁  乔方利 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(1):90-101

基于中国近海浪-流耦合业务化预报系统（OFS-C）和Lagrangian粒子追踪方法，本文首次建立了辽东湾海蜇增殖放流模型。模型中，海蜇用虚拟的粒子表示，具有昼夜垂直运动（DVM）特性。海蜇运动由海流和次网格参数化引起的随机运动驱动。利用航次调查数据对模型结果进行了验证，模式结果可以很好的模拟放流海蜇分布的主要结构。模型分析了物理过程对辽东湾放流海蜇的输运和分布的影响，结果显示海蜇运动主要受海流和间接的风应力的影响。放流地和捕捞地的连通性分析表明，辽东湾海蜇的主要捕捞地集中于湾顶。另外，连通性矩阵表明，瓦房店放流的部分海蜇不能到达捕捞地，因此，相对于其它放流地来说，瓦房店不是理想的放流地。敏感性实验表明了随机游走的重要性，但是对于游走格式并不敏感。海蜇栖息的深度会影响海蜇最终的分布，若海蜇栖息于海底，则在低层环流的影响下，最终分布于辽东湾中部，部分会流出辽东湾，而不能到达湾顶。  相似文献   

利用热带太平洋TAO浮标阵列评估全球高分辨率浪-潮-流耦合模式同化结果   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

史军强  尹训强  舒启  肖斌  乔方利 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(3):8-20

In order to evaluate the assimilation results from a global high resolution ocean model, the buoy observations from tropical atmosphere ocean(TAO) during August 2014 to July 2015 are employed. The horizontal resolution of wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by The First Institute of Oceanography(FIOCOM model) is 0.1°×0.1°, and ensemble adjustment Kalman filter is used to assimilate the sea surface temperature(SST), sea level anomaly(SLA) and Argo temperature/salinity profiles. The simulation results with and without data assimilation are examined. First, the overall statistic errors of model results are analyzed. The scatter diagrams of model simulations versus observations and corresponding error probability density distribution show that the errors of all the observed variables, including the temperature, isotherm depth of 20°C(D20), salinity and two horizontal component of velocity are reduced to some extent with a maximum improvement of 54% after assimilation. Second, time-averaged variables are used to investigate the horizontal and vertical structures of the model results. Owing to the data assimilation, the biases of the time-averaged distribution are reduced more than70% for the temperature and D20 especially in the eastern Pacific. The obvious improvement of D20 which represents the upper mixed layer depth indicates that the structure of the temperature after the data assimilation becomes more close to the reality and the vertical structure of the upper ocean becomes more reasonable. At last,the physical processes of time series are compared with observations. The time evolution processes of all variables after the data assimilation are more consistent with the observations. The temperature bias and RMSE of D20 are reduced by 76% and 56% respectively with the data assimilation. More events during this period are also reproduced after the data assimilation. Under the condition of strong 2014/2016 El Ni?o, the Equatorial Undercurrent(EUC) from the TAO is gradually increased during August to November in 2014, and followed by a decreasing process. Since the improvement of the structure in the upper ocean, these events of the EUC can be clearly found in the assimilation results. In conclusion, the data assimilation in this global high resolution model has successfully reduced the model biases and improved the structures of the upper ocean, and the physical processes in reality can be well produced.  相似文献   

东海“桑吉”轮事故溢油污染的长期预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

尹丽萍  张敏  张远凌  乔方利 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(3):69-72

“桑吉”轮事故溢出的凝析油和燃料油对漂油途经海域的海洋生态会产生长期灾害性影响。对溢油污染水体的漂移轨迹和污染程度及范围的预测可为海洋环境保护及污染评估提供重要基础信息。基于国家海洋局第一海洋研究所研发的海洋环境业务化预报系统，本研究较精确预测了“桑吉”轮事故发生后至沉船位置的漂移轨迹；继而利用拉格朗日粒子追踪法预测了撞船后60天内的油粒子漂流轨迹。结果表明，沉船点附近的溢油主要向东北方向输运，大部分油粒子进入西边界强流黑潮并在黑潮带动下迅速进入黑潮延伸体海域。基于预报系统2009-2017年历史表层海流资料，对溢油影响程度和范围进行了风险概率分析，结果显示受溢油影响最大的区域为沉船点东北方向海域。  相似文献   

An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter study for Argo data     

尹训强  乔方利  杨永增  夏长水 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2010,(3)

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An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter study for Argo data   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

尹训强  乔方利  杨永增  夏长水 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2010,28(3):626-635

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两种湍流参数化方案针对水体温度演变过程的模拟与比较     

马洪余  乔方利  郭景松 《海洋学报(英文版)》2012,31(4):35-40

依据山东跋山水库的观测数据,采用MY2.5参数化方案和κ-ε参数化方案在不同的表面边界条件下模拟观测的温度剖面演化过程。模拟结果显示,在风应力强迫的表面边界条件下,采用这两种参数化方案的模拟结果差别不大;当考虑Mellor和Blumberg的波浪破碎表面边界条件时,采用MY2.5参数化方案的模拟结果没有明显的改善,但采用κ-ε参数化方案的模拟结果有明显的改善,得到与观测相符的模拟结果。  相似文献   

钦州湾水交换能力数值模拟研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

陈振华  夏长水  乔方利 《海洋学报》2017,39(3):14-23

基于普林斯顿海洋模式（Princeton Ocean Model,POM）,以M₂、S₂、K₁、O₁、M₄和MS₄ 6个分潮为驱动,建立了包含漫滩处理的高分辨率钦州湾水动力模式。与现场观测的数据对比表明,该模式能较好地刻画钦州湾的水动力特征。在此基础上建立了水质模型,模拟钦州湾的水交换过程。模拟结果表明:钦州湾水交换能力整体上较强,整个湾平均的水体半交换时间约为18 d,水体平均存留时间为45 d。空间分布上,钦州保税港区以南海域水交换能力最强,半交换时间小于1 d;沿着水道向北,水交换能力逐渐减弱;茅尾海中部半交换时间为26~28 d;茅尾海的东、西、北3个部分存在水交换滞缓区,半交换时间超过50 d。数值实验表明,采用漫滩技术对准确模拟钦州湾潮流速度和水交换能力非常重要,不考虑漫滩过程会低估钦州湾的潮流速度和水体交换能力。水平扩散系数对流速及交换时间都有影响,但影响有限。  相似文献   

全球气候变化对海洋声吸收系数的影响研究          下载免费PDF全文

刘宗伟  鲍颖  吕连港  乔方利  宋振亚 《海洋科学进展》2017,35(2)

基于地球系统模式FIO-ESM(The First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model),研究了在最高排放RCP8.5情景下1851—2100年海水温度、盐度和酸度的变化规律,综合考虑三者得到了声吸收系数的变化规律。FIO-ESM模式输出结果表明,1851—2100年间大部分区域的海水温度出现不同程度地上升,海洋酸化现象明显,北极地区附近的海水盐度出现较大程度的下降。利用Francaais-Garriso经验公式计算海洋声吸收系数发现,如果只考虑酸度对声吸收系数的影响,声吸收系数的预报误差将达到40%以上。综合计算结果表明,随着全球气候变化的演进,全球海洋声吸收系数出现不同程度的下降,最大可达70%,即未来的海洋对于声波更加"透明"。  相似文献   

地球系统模式FIO-ESM对北极海冰的模拟和预估   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

舒启  乔方利  宋振亚 《海洋学报》2013,35(5):37-45

评估了地球系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model)基于CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)的历史实验对北极海冰的模拟能力,分析了该模式基于CMIP5未来情景实验在不同典型浓度路径(RCPs,Representative Concentration Pathways)下对北极海冰的预估情况。通过与卫星观测的海冰覆盖范围资料相比,该模式能够很好地模拟出多年平均海冰覆盖范围的季节变化特征,模拟的气候态月平均海冰覆盖范围均在卫星观测值±15%范围以内。FIO-ESM能够较好地模拟1979-2005年期间北极海冰的衰减趋势,模拟衰减速度为每年减少2.24×104 km2,但仍小于观测衰减速度(每年减少4.72×104 km2)。特别值得注意的是:不同于其他模式所预估的海冰一直衰减,FIO-ESM对21世纪北极海冰预估在不同情景下呈现不同的变化趋势,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,北极海冰总体呈增加趋势,在RCP6情景下,北极海冰基本维持不变,而在RCP8.5情景下,北极海冰呈现继续衰减趋势。  相似文献   

2007和2012年北极最小海冰范围空间分布不同的原因分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

崔红艳  乔方利  舒启  宋亚娟  姜春飞 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(9):94-101

Satellite records show the minimum Arctic sea ice extents(SIEs) were observed in the Septembers of 2007 and2012, but the spatial distributions of sea ice concentration reduction in these two years were quite different.Atmospheric circulation pattern and the upper-ocean state in summer were investigated to explain the difference.By employing the ice-temperature and ice-specific humidity(SH) positive feedbacks in the Arctic Ocean, this paper shows that in 2007 and 2012 the higher surface air temperature(SAT) and sea level pressure(SLP)accompanied by more surface SH and higher sea surface temperature(SST), as a consequence, the strengthened poleward wind was favorable for melting summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years. SAT was the dominant factor influencing the distribution of Arctic sea ice melting. The correlation coefficient is –0.84 between SAT anomalies in summer and the Arctic SIE anomalies in autumn. The increase SAT in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012 corresponded to a quicker melting of sea ice in the Arctic. The SLP and related wind were promoting factors connected with SAT. Strengthening poleward winds brought warm moist air to the Arctic and accelerated the melting of sea ice in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012. Associated with the rising air temperature, the higher surface SH and SST also played a positive role in reducing summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years, which form two positive feedbacks mechanism.  相似文献