The evaluation of “social risk” due to volcanic eruptions of Vesuvius     

C. Pesaresi  M. Marta  C. Palagiano  R. Scandone 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(2):229-243

A re-evaluation of the demographic risk per number of inhabitants due to volcanic eruptions in the Vesuvius area was made on the basis of the Census data of 2001. We introduced other variables (population density and number of houses) which permit to upgrade the existing models. Using the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and particularly ArcGIS 9.0 software we have elaborated a land use map, an urbanization map and a series of new risk maps which lead us to obtain a map of what we call “social risk” due to volcanic eruptions, derived from the combination of the data used and the overlay of the maps. We have proposed an integrated model which can be easily updated to follow the evolution of the volcanic risk in the overpopulated Vesuvius area, with the aim of supporting the planning of Civil Protection and Local Authorities, for an evacuation scenarios and the possibility of taking into account the potential infrastructural damages. This methodology can be tested in other volcanic regions.  相似文献   

资源开发、环境保护与地球物理学     

蒋宏耀  张立敏 《地球物理学进展》1992,(2)

人口、资源、灾害与环境是困扰当代人类的几个重大问题.人口的增长,要求有更多的资源,而资源开发、利用的合理与否,又势必对环境产生有利或有害的影响;环境的改善或恶化,反过来又必然影响到资源的增减.因此,如何处理好它们之间的关系,使资源得到合理的开发和利用,同时又保护或改善环境,形成资源开发利用与环境保护改善之间的良性循环,应当是人类共同奋斗的一个目标. 本文依据一些实际资料论述了上述问题以及地球物理学在解决这些问题中所应起的作用.  相似文献   

Seismic hazard assessment using the theory of records     

G. R. Dargahi-Noubary 《Natural Hazards》1990,3(2):161-171

This article is a review of some basic results for analysis of records. First, the general methods appropriate for seismic hazard are discussed. Then, in view of the frequency-magnitude law of Gutenberg and Richter, some results relevant for hazard assessment related to earthquakes are presented. The discussion is concluded with an example of application and comparison with classical methods.  相似文献   

Hazard Assessment of Cold and Hot Damage for Double-Season Early Rice (DSER) in Lower-Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin     

Yao Pengjuan  Wang Chunyi  Zhang Jiquan 《地球科学进展》2016,31(5):503-514

Cold and hot damages which are both common disasters occurring in DSER growth time in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin harm early rice. The two disasters occurrence should be deeply studied to protect the DSER yield. This study was based on meteorological data of 48 agricultural meteorological stations during 1961-2010 period and agricultural meteorological data during 1981-2010 for DSER in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. In this study, the growth time was divided into several phases according to the growth stage, including tillering stage, booting stage, flowering stage and filling stage. The disasters taking place at some stages was identified by building new judging standard and their intensity value was calculated by harm accumulated temperature calculation model. Fisher optimal division method was used to classify the disasters and H-P filter was used to consider the reduction of the yield. It was conducted to analize the disasters’ characteristics in growing season, the intensity of hazard and the weight of hazard at each stage by judging and quantifying cold and hot damage and developing hazard assessment model of disasters. All findings were displayed in maps by GIS technology. The results showed that: ①New disaster judging standard was more suitable for DSER and the hazard assessment model could reveal the disaster situation in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. ②Cold damage was severe at tillering stage while hot damage was severe at filling stage. In the view of the distribution of the decadal disaster intensity, cold damage became to be weak and hot damage became to be strong. Compared with the plains, mountainous region and hilly ground were attacked by cold damage frequently and hot damage rarely from the perspective of spatial distribution of disasters. Distinctly, plains near large areas of water were often harmed by cold damage at booting and flowering stage. ③The area of high hazard value and high disasters value at each stage were overlapped by each other roughly. Studying the hazard of the whole growth season showed that the highest hazard value was in Zhejiang province, and the next in Hubei Province. So Hu’nan and Jiangxi Provinces were quite suitable to grow DSER. ④In contrast with the hazard weight at each stage, the vulnerable phases of the whole growth time were in sequence of filling stage> tillering stage> flowering stage > booting stage. What’s more, aiming at defensing and fending off risk, some special stages in special province should be paid close attention including booting and filling stages in Hubei Province, tillering and flowering and filling stages in Hu’nan Province, tillering and filling stages in Jiangxi Province, flowering and filling stages in Zhejiang Province. The conclusion can be taken as theoretical basis for the government management of agricultural production, disaster prevention and mitigation.  相似文献   

沙角A电厂主厂房（一期）震害预测及对策     

陆建忠  梁启智 《华南地震》1995,(3)

对沙角Ａ电厂主厂房（一期）进行了抗震鉴定，计算结果表明其抗震能力满足生命线工程的抗震要求，最后提出了一些抗震加固方法。  相似文献   

珠江三角洲地震次生灾害初步研究     

邹从学 《华南地震》1995,15(3):95-99

介绍了地震后可能引发的地震火灾、爆炸等次生灾害；讨论了地震火灾及损失的影响因素；根据次生灾害源的分布，初步定性预测它们可能带来的损失及影响。  相似文献   

四川石棉—西昌地区地震区划研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

唐荣昌  张耀国 《地震研究》1993,16(3):306-315

本文基于对石棉—西昌地区全新世断层活动与地震活动在时间上、空间上、强度上不均匀性的认识,结合四川省近廿年来对该区地震趋势估计,采用地震危险性概率分析方法,编制了此区50年超越概率10%的地震烈度和地表基岩水平峰值加速度区划图。区划结果表明,烈度和加速度的最高值均位于冕宁以南—西昌一带,这与该段全新世地表破裂最强烈、断错地貌和古地震遗迹相对集中、强震活动频繁具有较好的一致性;区划图等烈度线和等加速度线的总体分布形态近呈南北,与断裂走向基本一致。  相似文献   

云南陇川县"2004-07-05"特大滑坡泥石流灾害及防治对策   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

孟国才  高克昌  王士革  韦方强  陈晓清 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(4):104-108

云南德宏州陇川县2004年7月5目发生了近100a一遇的特大滑坡泥石流灾害。这次灾害点多、面广,波及到全县11个乡镇,并且灾害几乎同时发生。因灾死亡13人,4人失踪,直接经济损失约2亿元,其灾害的严重性可见一斑。因灾区地处滇西横断山地,岭谷相间,地形高差、山坡坡度及河、沟谷比降都比较大;地质条件复杂,出露岩层为易风化的花岗岩及片麻岩,雨季5-10月降水丰沛而集中,这些对滑坡泥石流的发育极为有利：不合理的人类经济活动(如陡坡耕作、挖方填方式的公路建设等)则加剧了滑坡泥石流灾害的发生。加之7月5目区域性暴雨及局部特大暴雨的激发,最终引发了此次灾害。暴雨是陇川县07-05灾害最直接也是最根本的原因。通过对这次灾害的实地考察,在掌握本区的社会经济条件和自然属性前提下,总结了此次灾害的特点。此次灾害具有如下几个方面的特点：灾种多样,灾害的链武特征明显;滑坡多表现为高位、高势能、高速特征,而泥石流多发生在沟口;滑坡泥石流规模小,但点多面广：漂木流危害严重。在明确陇川县07-05灾害特点和成因的前提下,提出了有针对性的近期、中远期防灾、减灾对策。  相似文献   

A rapid method to assess fire-related debris flow hazard in the Mediterranean region: An example from Sicily (southern Italy)     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2005,7(3):217-231

Increased atmospheric temperatures during the high-pressure which characterise the Mediterranean climate in the dry summer time, coupled with an increase in the intensity of storms in the following wet season over recent years, increase the risk of summer fires as well as debris flows and floods in the autumn and/or in the following years. In addition, the diffuse urbanization of Italy requires a rapid and reliable tool be available in order to obtain preliminary information, at the end of the summer season, that identifies newly fired areas that present a significant hazard to human populations. In such burned zones, soil instability may be more severe favouring debris flows which may impact on populated zones. Thus, in this paper we discuss a rapid methodology to: (i) identify burned areas using band ratio's using multitemporal LANDSAT ETM images; (ii) evaluate the potential of the burned areas as the source of debris flows based on morphometric parameters (slope and hill slope curvature); (iii) evaluate the structures, such as houses and roads, exposed to potential damage by debris flows. Hazardous areas were evaluated using a stochastical model coupled with an empirical relationship which accounts for the mobility of the debris flows. The methodology provides a classification of the most “dangerous” burned areas and the potentially maximum inundated downslope areas. This has been applied to Sicily for the period autumn 2001–autumn 2002. The total burned area was 76.37 km². According to the classification proposed 6.4% of the burned areas were consider of very high to high hazard potential, 54.4% of medium hazard and 43.2% of low hazard potential.  相似文献   

Spatial distribution, morphometry and activity of La Puebla de Alfindén sinkhole field in the Ebro river valley (NE Spain): applied aspects for hazard zonation     

F. Gutiérrez-Santolalla  M. Gutiérrez-Elorza  C. Marín  G. Desir  C. Maldonado 《Environmental Geology》2005,48(3):360-369

A highly active collapse sinkhole field in the evaporitic mantled karst of the Ebro river valley is studied (NE Spain). The subsidence is controlled by a NW-SE trending joint system and accelerated by the discharge of waste water from a nearby industrial state. The morphometry, spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the sinkholes have been analysed. The volume of the sinkholes yields a minimum estimate of average lowering of the surface by collapse subsidence of 46 cm. The clustering of the sinkholes and the tendency to form elongated uvalas and linear belts, in a NW–SE direction have a predictive utility and allow the establishment of criteria for a hazard zonation. With the precipitation record supplied by a pluviograph and periodic cartographic and photographic surveys the influence of heavy rainfall events on the triggering of collapses has been studied.  相似文献